Extended Streamflow Prediction
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FGUS65 KSTR 071421
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COLORADO BASIN RIVER FORECAST CENTER
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE
SALT LAKE CITY UT
April 7, 2017

WATER SUPPLY INFORMATION FOR
    SAN JUAN RIVER BASIN


PRECIPITATION (% OF AVERAGE) AND SNOWPACK (% OF MEDIAN):

SUBBASIN                 MAR PRECIP     OCT-MAR PREC    APR 1 SNOWPACK
----------------------   ----------     ------------    ---------------
ABOVE NAVAJO RES              55            125               120
ANIMAS                        75            115               125
LOWER SAN JUAN                80            135                 -

******************************************************************************
OBSERVED STREAMFLOW SUMMARY (% OF AVERAGE):

                         MAR FLOW       OCT-MAR FLOW
----------------------   --------       ------------
BASIN AVERAGE               195%            125%

******************************************************************************
RESERVOIR STORAGE AS OF MAR 1:

RESERVOIR                % AVERAGE
---------------------    ----------
NAVAJO                      111
VALLECITO                   122
LEMON                       113

TOTAL                       112

San Juan River Basin
                           Period     50%  %AVG    10%    30%    70%    90%    AVG
                           ------    ----  ----   ----   ----   ----   ----    ---
San Juan River
  Pagosa Springs           Apr-Jul    235   109    300    255    210    195    215
  Carracas, nr             Apr-Jul    400   105    500    435    340    325    380
Rio Blanco River
  Pagosa Springs, nr, Bla  Apr-Jul     60   111     76     67     51     44     54
Navajo River
  Chromo, nr, Oso Div Dam  Apr-Jul     69   106     90     84     59     50     65
Piedra River
  Arboles, nr              Apr-Jul    220   105    300    250    200    175    210
Los Pinos River
  Vallecito Res, Bayfield  Apr-Jul    210   108    280    225    180    158    194
San Juan River
  Navajo Res, Archuleta,   Apr-Jul    760   103   1000    845    660    600    735
Florida River
  Lemon Res, Durango, nr   Apr-Jul     57   104     79     65     46     38     55
Animas River
  Durango                  Apr-Jul    465   112    625    540    420    355    415
San Juan River
  Farmington               Apr-Jul   1180   107   1540   1330   1030    950   1100
La Plata River
  Hesperus                 Apr-Jul     29   126     35     32     25     23     23
San Juan River
  Bluff, nr                Apr-Jul   1200   109   1560   1340   1010    940   1100
Mancos River
  Mancos, nr               Apr-Jul     40   129     51     44     32     28     31

50% Most probable volume in 1000 acre-feet.
%AVG  Most probable volume in percent of the 1981-2010 average.
10% Volume that has a 10 percent chance of being exceeded.
30% Volume that has a 30 percent chance of being exceeded.
90% Volume that has a 90 percent chance of being exceeded.
70% Volume that has a 70 percent chance of being exceeded.
AVG   Average volume for the 1981-2010 period.

All forecast volumes reflect natural flow. Actual observed flow may
be affected by upstream water management.

CBRFC/G.Smith



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