Flash Flood Guidance
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000
AWUS01 KWNH 292311
FFGMPD
KSZ000-NEZ000-COZ000-WYZ000-300500-

MESOSCALE PRECIPITATION DISCUSSION 0231
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
710 PM EDT TUE JUL 29 2014

AREAS AFFECTED...SERN WYOMING INTO ERN COLORADO AND WRN NEBRASKA

CONCERNING...HEAVY RAINFALL...FLASH FLOODING LIKELY

VALID 292309Z - 300500Z

SUMMARY...AN INCREASE IN LOW LEVEL UPSLOPE FLOW IS EXPECTED TO
PROLONG AND EXPAND ONGOING FLASH FLOODING ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE
CNTRL HIGH PLAINS INTO THE FIRST HALF OF THE NIGHT. SLOW MOVING
STORMS WITH HOURLY RAIN RATES OF 1 - 1.5 IN/HR AND 3 - 5 INCHES
LOCALLY WILL BE POSSIBLE.

DISCUSSION...WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWED A WELL DEFINED UPPER LEVEL
LOW ALONG THE UTAH/COLORADO BORDER AS OF 2230Z...STEADILY MOVING
EWD TOWARD A REGION OF PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES BETWEEN 1.25 AND
1.50 INCHES IN PLACE EAST OF THE DIVIDE. ENHANCED CONVECTIVE
DEVELOPMENT LOCATED NORTHEAST OF TWO MESOSCALE LOW-LEVEL
LOWS...ONE OVER SRN WELD COUNTY AND ANOTHER OTERO COUNTY...APPEARS
TO BE TIED TO LOCALLY STRONGER UPSLOPE FLOW TIED TO THE LOW
CENTERS.

AS THE UPPER LOW OVER THE UTAH/COLORADO BORDER CONTINUES EWD OVER
THE NEXT FEW HOURS...UPSLOPE FLOW BETWEEN 850 AND 700 MB SHOULD
INCREASE INTO THE 20-30 KT RANGE ACROSS MUCH OF THE OUTLOOK
AREA...HELPING TO SUSTAIN LIFT INTO A WEAK TO MODERATELY UNSTABLE
AIRMASS DEFINED BY ML CAPES OF 500 TO 1500 J/KG PER SPC
MESOANALYSIS. SLOW STORM MOTIONS OF 10 KTS OR LESS...ESPECIALLY
ACROSS E-CNTRL COLORADO...SHOULD FAVOR CONTINUED HEAVY RAINFALL
WITH PERHAPS A LOCAL MAX JUST SOUTH OF E-CNTRL COLORADO WITH A
MAJORITY OF HI-RES MODELS POINTING TO NERN COLORADO FOR A
SECONDARY MAX. 3 - 5 INCHES WILL BE POSSIBLE IN THESE TWO AREAS
WITH A CONTINUED RISK OF FLASH FLOODING.

OTTO

...PLEASE SEE WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...LBF...DDC...GLD...PUB...BOU...CYS...

ATTN...RFC...ABRFC...CBRFC...MBRFC...WGRFC...

LAT...LON   37970432 38780491 40900565 41900579 42560544 42640435
            41780286 40630151 39040130 37300179 37130315 37970432



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