Routine Fire Wx Fcst (With/Without 6-10 Day Outlook)
Issued by NWS Gaylord, MI

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FNUS53 KAPX 201306 AAA
FWFAPX

Fire Weather Planning Forecast for northern Lower Michigan...UPDATED
National Weather Service Gaylord MI
906 AM EDT Fri Oct 20 2017

...Updated for Lower RH on the west side of the State...

.DISCUSSION...Breezy and warm through Saturday with marginal
elevated fire danger conditions...upstream area of dry air is
expected to move up into the western part of the state today. This
looks to produce relative humidity conditions in the 30 to 35
percent range on the west of I-75. This looks to be 10 to 15
percent lower than forecast earlier. Winds are still expected to
be gusty with some gusts in the 20-25 mph range.

Earlier discussion follows...High pressure anchored along the east
coast will continue to bring rain-free weather and well above
normal temperatures through Saturday. Southerly winds will once
again become a bit gusty as we go through the day with some gusts
into the lower 20s. However, an increasingly moist airmass today
should prevent afternoon RH values from dropping as low as
Thursday, with all areas expected to remain above critical fire
weather weather values. Nonetheless, gusty winds and warmer
temperatures may approach elevated fire danger conditions.

A repeat performance for Saturday. Afternoon temperatures in the
lower to middle 70s and gusts into the 20s may lead to elevated
fire danger once again.


MIZ016-017-019-021>023-202015-
Emmet...Cheboygan...Charlevoix...Antrim...Otsego and Montmorency
Counties-
906 AM EDT Fri Oct 20 2017

.REST OF TODAY...
Sky/Weather.........Sunny (5-15 percent).
Max Temperature.....71-76...except 64-69 near the coast.
   24 HR Trend......11 degrees warmer.
Min Humidity........34-39 percent...except 49-54 percent along the
                    coast.
   24 HR Trend......Unchanged...except 7 percent wetter along the
                    coast.
20-Foot Winds.......Southwest winds around 10 mph with occasional
                    gusts up to 20 mph.
Haines Index........5 or moderate potential for large plume
                    dominated fire growth.
Smoke Dispersal.....Excellent (690).
Mixing Height.......2900 ft agl.
Transport Winds.....Southwest 12 to 21 mph.
Pcpn Amount.........None.

.TONIGHT...
Sky/Weather.........Partly cloudy (20-30 percent).
Min Temperature.....51-56.
   24 HR Trend......10 degrees warmer.
Max Humidity........86-91 percent...except 72-77 percent along the
                    coast.
   24 HR Trend......17 percent wetter...except 7 percent wetter
                    along the coast.
20-Foot Winds.......Southwest winds 5 to 10 mph .
Haines Index........4 or low potential for large plume dominated
                    fire growth.
Smoke Dispersal.....Poor (30).
Mixing Height.......300 ft agl.
Transport Winds.....Southwest 12 to 15 mph.
Pcpn Amount.........None.

.SATURDAY...
Sky/Weather.........Mostly sunny (30-40 percent).
Max Temperature.....71-76.
   24 HR Trend......Unchanged.
Min Humidity........40-45 percent...except 49-54 percent along the
                    coast.
   24 HR Trend......10 percent wetter...except 2 percent wetter
                    along the coast.
20-Foot Winds.......South winds around 10 mph with occasional gusts
                    up to 20 mph.
Haines Index........4 or low potential for large plume dominated
                    fire growth.
Smoke Dispersal.....Good (340).
Mixing Height.......2000 ft agl.
Transport Winds.....South 12 to 15 mph.
Pcpn Amount.........None.


$$

MIZ018-024-030-036-042-202015-
Presque Isle...Alpena...Alcona...Iosco and Arenac
Counties...including Eastern Huron NF-
906 AM EDT Fri Oct 20 2017

.REST OF TODAY...
Sky/Weather.........Sunny (0-10 percent).
Max Temperature.....71-76...except 63-68 near the coast.
   24 HR Trend......9 degrees warmer...except 4 degrees warmer near
                    the coast.
Min Humidity........34-39 percent.
   24 HR Trend......20 percent wetter...except 10 percent wetter
                    along the coast.
20-Foot Winds.......Southwest winds around 10 mph with occasional
                    gusts up to 20 mph.
Haines Index........5 or moderate potential for large plume
                    dominated fire growth.
Smoke Dispersal.....Excellent (720).
Mixing Height.......3100 ft agl.
Transport Winds.....Southwest 12 to 21 mph.
Pcpn Amount.........None.

.TONIGHT...
Sky/Weather.........Mostly clear (15-25 percent).
Min Temperature.....50-55.
   24 HR Trend......11 degrees warmer.
Max Humidity........91-96 percent...except 75-80 percent along the
                    coast.
   24 HR Trend......21 percent wetter...except 26 percent wetter
                    along the coast.
20-Foot Winds.......Southwest winds around 5 mph with occasional
                    gusts up to 16 mph.
Haines Index........4 or low potential for large plume dominated
                    fire growth.
Smoke Dispersal.....Poor (30).
Mixing Height.......300 ft agl.
Transport Winds.....Southwest 12 to 15 mph.
Pcpn Amount.........None.

.SATURDAY...
Sky/Weather.........Mostly sunny (25-35 percent).
Max Temperature.....72-77...except around 70 near the coast.
   24 HR Trend......1 degree warmer.
Min Humidity........39-44 percent...except 57-62 percent along the
                    coast.
   24 HR Trend......6 percent wetter.
20-Foot Winds.......South winds 5 to 10 mph .
Haines Index........4 or low potential for large plume dominated
                    fire growth.
Smoke Dispersal.....Good (400).
Mixing Height.......2300 ft agl.
Transport Winds.....South 12 to 15 mph.
Pcpn Amount.........None.


$$

MIZ020-025>027-202015-
Leelanau...Benzie...Grand Traverse and Kalkaska
Counties...including the Sleeping Bear Dunes NL-
906 AM EDT Fri Oct 20 2017

.REST OF TODAY...
Sky/Weather.........Sunny (5-15 percent).
Max Temperature.....71-76...except 60-65 near the coast.
   24 HR Trend......10 degrees warmer.
Min Humidity........31-36 percent...except 60-65 percent along the
                    coast.
   24 HR Trend......19 percent wetter...except 1 percent wetter
                    along the coast.
20-Foot Winds.......South winds around 10 mph with occasional gusts
                    up to 20 mph.
Haines Index........5 or moderate potential for large plume
                    dominated fire growth.
Smoke Dispersal.....Excellent (700).
Mixing Height.......3000 ft agl.
Transport Winds.....Southwest 12 to 21 mph.
Pcpn Amount.........None.

.TONIGHT...
Sky/Weather.........Partly cloudy (20-30 percent).
Min Temperature.....51-56...except 59-64 near the coast.
   24 HR Trend......11 degrees warmer...except 6 degrees warmer
                    near the coast.
Max Humidity........88-93 percent...except 72-77 percent along the
                    coast.
   24 HR Trend......7 percent wetter...except 14 percent wetter
                    along the coast.
20-Foot Winds.......South winds around 10 mph with occasional gusts
                    up to 20 mph.
Haines Index........4 or low potential for large plume dominated
                    fire growth.
Smoke Dispersal.....Poor (30).
Mixing Height.......300 ft agl.
Transport Winds.....South 12 to 15 mph.
Pcpn Amount.........None.

.SATURDAY...
Sky/Weather.........Mostly sunny (40-50 percent).
Max Temperature.....70-75...except 62-67 near the coast.
   24 HR Trend......1 degree cooler.
Min Humidity........40-45 percent...except 63-68 percent along the
                    coast.
   24 HR Trend......1 percent drier.
20-Foot Winds.......South winds around 10 mph with occasional gusts
                    up to 20 mph.
Haines Index........4 or low potential for large plume dominated
                    fire growth.
Smoke Dispersal.....Good (450).
Mixing Height.......2300 ft agl.
Transport Winds.....South 15 to 18 mph.
Pcpn Amount.........None.


$$

MIZ031>033-202015-
Manistee...Wexford and Missaukee Counties...Including the
northern quarter of Manistee NF-
906 AM EDT Fri Oct 20 2017

.REST OF TODAY...
Sky/Weather.........Sunny (5-15 percent).
Max Temperature.....70-75.
   24 HR Trend......9 degrees warmer.
Min Humidity........32-37 percent...except 44-49 percent along the
                    coast.
   24 HR Trend......22 percent wetter...except 4 percent drier
                    along the coast.
20-Foot Winds.......South winds around 10 mph with occasional gusts
                    up to 20 mph.
Haines Index........5 or moderate potential for large plume
                    dominated fire growth.
Smoke Dispersal.....Excellent (730).
Mixing Height.......3300 ft agl.
Transport Winds.....Southwest 12 to 21 mph.
Pcpn Amount.........None.

.TONIGHT...
Sky/Weather.........Mostly clear (20-30 percent).
Min Temperature.....50-55.
   24 HR Trend......13 degrees warmer.
Max Humidity........88-93 percent.
   24 HR Trend......4 percent wetter...except 10 percent drier
                    along the coast.
20-Foot Winds.......South winds 5 to 10 mph .
Haines Index........4 or low potential for large plume dominated
                    fire growth.
Smoke Dispersal.....Poor (30).
Mixing Height.......300 ft agl.
Transport Winds.....South 12 to 15 mph.
Pcpn Amount.........None.

.SATURDAY...
Sky/Weather.........Mostly sunny (35-45 percent).
Max Temperature.....70-75.
   24 HR Trend......1 degree cooler.
Min Humidity........40-45 percent...except 51-56 percent along the
                    coast.
   24 HR Trend......7 percent wetter...except 14 percent wetter
                    along the coast.
20-Foot Winds.......South winds around 10 mph with occasional gusts
                    up to 20 mph.
Haines Index........4 or low potential for large plume dominated
                    fire growth.
Smoke Dispersal.....Good (480).
Mixing Height.......2400 ft agl.
Transport Winds.....South 12 to 18 mph.
Pcpn Amount.........None.


$$

MIZ028-029-034-035-041-202015-
Crawford...Oscoda...Roscommon...Ogemaw and Gladwin
Counties...including Western Huron NF-
906 AM EDT Fri Oct 20 2017

.REST OF TODAY...
Sky/Weather.........Sunny (5-15 percent).
Max Temperature.....71-76.
   24 HR Trend......9 degrees warmer.
Min Humidity........35-40 percent.
   24 HR Trend......20 percent wetter.
20-Foot Winds.......Southwest winds around 10 mph .
Haines Index........5 or moderate potential for large plume
                    dominated fire growth.
Smoke Dispersal.....Excellent (890).
Mixing Height.......3700 ft agl.
Transport Winds.....Southwest around 9 mph increasing to around 21
                    mph in the afternoon.
Pcpn Amount.........None.

.TONIGHT...
Sky/Weather.........Mostly clear (20-30 percent).
Min Temperature.....45-50.
   24 HR Trend......12 degrees warmer.
Max Humidity........94-99 percent.
   24 HR Trend......14 percent wetter.
20-Foot Winds.......Southwest winds around 5 mph with occasional
                    gusts up to 16 mph.
Haines Index........4 or low potential for large plume dominated
                    fire growth.
Smoke Dispersal.....Poor (30).
Mixing Height.......300 ft agl.
Transport Winds.....Southwest 12 to 15 mph.
Pcpn Amount.........None.

.SATURDAY...
Sky/Weather.........Mostly sunny (30-40 percent).
Max Temperature.....71-76.
   24 HR Trend......Unchanged.
Min Humidity........38-43 percent.
   24 HR Trend......4 percent wetter.
20-Foot Winds.......South winds 5 to 10 mph .
Haines Index........4 or low potential for large plume dominated
                    fire growth.
Smoke Dispersal.....Good (420).
Mixing Height.......2500 ft agl.
Transport Winds.....South 9 to 15 mph.
Pcpn Amount.........None.


$$

.EXTENDED...

.SUNDAY...MOSTLY CLOUDY. SHOWERS. LOWS IN THE MID 50S. HIGHS IN
THE LOWER 70S. SOUTH WINDS AROUND 10 MPH.
.MONDAY...MOSTLY CLOUDY. SHOWERS. LOWS IN THE UPPER 40S. HIGHS IN
THE LOWER 60S. SOUTHWEST WINDS AROUND 5 MPH.
.TUESDAY...MOSTLY CLOUDY WITH SHOWERS LIKELY. LOWS IN THE MID
40S. HIGHS IN THE MID 50S. WEST WINDS AROUND 5 MPH.
.WEDNESDAY...MOSTLY CLOUDY. CHANCE OF SHOWERS. LOWS IN THE UPPER
30S. HIGHS IN THE LOWER 50S. NORTHWEST WINDS AROUND 5 MPH.
.THURSDAY...PARTLY CLOUDY. LOWS IN THE UPPER 30S. HIGHS IN THE
MID 50S. SOUTHWEST WINDS AROUND 10 MPH.

$$

JL


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