Routine Fire Wx Fcst (With/Without 6-10 Day Outlook)
Issued by NWS Gaylord, MI

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FNUS53 KAPX 280746
FWFAPX

FIRE WEATHER PLANNING FORECAST FOR NORTHERN LOWER MICHIGAN
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GAYLORD MI
346 AM EDT WED SEP 28 2016

...CONTINUE COOL...CLOUDY AND RAINY THROUGH TODAY...

.DISCUSSION...CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN COOL...CLOUDY AND RAINY THROUGH
TODAY AS DEEP LOW PRESSURE DROPS SOUTH OF THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES
REGION. THE BEST CHANCE FOR RAIN WILL SHIFT TO NE LOWER MICHIGAN AS
LOW LEVEL WINDS SHIFT TO THE EAST. PRECIP CHANCES WILL END FOR MOST
OF THE AREA TONIGHT INTO THURSDAY...BUT CHANCES OF RAIN SHOWERS WILL
LINGER FOR AREAS SOUTHEAST OF A LINE FROM ALPENA TO HOUGHTON LAKE.

MIZ016-017-019-021>023-282015-
EMMET...CHEBOYGAN...CHARLEVOIX...ANTRIM...OTSEGO AND MONTMORENCY
COUNTIES-
346 AM EDT WED SEP 28 2016

.TODAY...
SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY CLOUDY (75-85 PERCENT). PATCHY FOG UNTIL
                    0800. CHANCE OF RAIN SHOWERS.
MAX TEMPERATURE.....63-68.
   24 HR TREND......9 DEGREES WARMER.
MIN HUMIDITY........55-60 PERCENT...EXCEPT 65-70 PERCENT ALONG THE
                    COAST.
   24 HR TREND......28 PERCENT DRIER...EXCEPT 21 PERCENT DRIER
                    ALONG THE COAST.
20-FOOT WINDS.......LIGHT WINDS BECOMING EAST AROUND 10 MPH IN THE
                    AFTERNOON. GUSTS UP TO 25 MPH.
HAINES INDEX........4 OR LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME DOMINATED
                    FIRE GROWTH.
SMOKE DISPERSAL.....EXCELLENT (1110).
MIXING HEIGHT.......6300 FT AGL.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....EAST 9 TO 15 MPH.
PCPN AMOUNT.........NONE TO 0.04 IN.

.TONIGHT...
SKY/WEATHER.........PARTLY CLOUDY (35-45 PERCENT). CHANCE OF RAIN
                    SHOWERS UNTIL 2000.
MIN TEMPERATURE.....51-56.
   24 HR TREND......5 DEGREES WARMER.
MAX HUMIDITY........92-97 PERCENT...EXCEPT 81-86 PERCENT ALONG THE
                    COAST.
   24 HR TREND......6 PERCENT DRIER.
20-FOOT WINDS.......NORTHEAST WINDS AROUND 5 MPH WITH OCCASIONAL
                    GUSTS UP TO 20 MPH.
HAINES INDEX........3 OR VERY LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME
                    DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH.
SMOKE DISPERSAL.....POOR (20).
MIXING HEIGHT.......300 FT AGL.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....NORTHEAST 9 TO 12 MPH.
PCPN AMOUNT.........NONE.

.THURSDAY...
SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY SUNNY (35-45 PERCENT).
MAX TEMPERATURE.....66-71.
   24 HR TREND......1 DEGREE WARMER...EXCEPT 6 DEGREES WARMER NEAR
                    THE COAST.
MIN HUMIDITY........54-59 PERCENT.
   24 HR TREND......3 PERCENT WETTER...EXCEPT 7 PERCENT DRIER ALONG
                    THE COAST.
20-FOOT WINDS.......NORTHEAST WINDS 10 TO 15 MPH.
HAINES INDEX........5 OR MODERATE POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME
                    DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH.
SMOKE DISPERSAL.....EXCELLENT (1380).
MIXING HEIGHT.......5600 FT AGL.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....NORTHEAST AROUND 12 MPH INCREASING TO EAST
                    AROUND 24 MPH IN THE AFTERNOON.
PCPN AMOUNT.........NONE.


$$

MIZ018-024-030-036-042-282015-
PRESQUE ISLE...ALPENA...ALCONA...IOSCO AND ARENAC
COUNTIES...INCLUDING EASTERN HURON NF-
346 AM EDT WED SEP 28 2016

.TODAY...
SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY CLOUDY (70-80 PERCENT). PATCHY FOG UNTIL
                    0800. RAIN SHOWERS LIKELY UNTIL 0800...THEN
                    CHANCE OF RAIN SHOWERS. SLIGHT CHANCE OF
                    THUNDERSTORMS AFTER 1400.
MAX TEMPERATURE.....64-69.
   24 HR TREND......7 DEGREES WARMER.
MIN HUMIDITY........54-59 PERCENT...EXCEPT 68-73 PERCENT ALONG THE
                    COAST.
   24 HR TREND......9 PERCENT DRIER...EXCEPT 4 PERCENT DRIER ALONG
                    THE COAST.
20-FOOT WINDS.......LIGHT WINDS BECOMING EAST AROUND 10 MPH IN THE
                    AFTERNOON. GUSTS UP TO 25 MPH.
HAINES INDEX........4 OR LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME DOMINATED
                    FIRE GROWTH.
SMOKE DISPERSAL.....EXCELLENT (1250).
MIXING HEIGHT.......7000 FT AGL.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....EAST AROUND 6 MPH INCREASING TO AROUND 18 MPH
                    IN THE AFTERNOON.
PCPN AMOUNT.........NONE TO 0.07 IN.

.TONIGHT...
SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY CLOUDY (45-55 PERCENT) UNTIL 2400...THEN
                    PARTLY CLOUDY (40-50 PERCENT). SLIGHT CHANCE OF
                    THUNDERSTORMS UNTIL 2000. CHANCE OF RAIN
                    SHOWERS UNTIL 0200. SLIGHT CHANCE OF RAIN
                    SHOWERS AFTER 0200.
MIN TEMPERATURE.....52-57...EXCEPT 59-64 NEAR THE COAST.
   24 HR TREND......7 DEGREES WARMER.
MAX HUMIDITY........92-97 PERCENT...EXCEPT 81-86 PERCENT ALONG THE
                    COAST.
   24 HR TREND......4 PERCENT DRIER.
20-FOOT WINDS.......NORTHEAST WINDS AROUND 10 MPH WITH OCCASIONAL
                    GUSTS UP TO 20 MPH.
HAINES INDEX........3 OR VERY LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME
                    DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH.
SMOKE DISPERSAL.....POOR (70).
MIXING HEIGHT.......500 FT AGL.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....NORTHEAST 12 TO 15 MPH.
PCPN AMOUNT.........NONE.

.THURSDAY...
SKY/WEATHER.........PARTLY SUNNY (50-60 PERCENT). CHANCE OF RAIN
                    SHOWERS AFTER 0800.
MAX TEMPERATURE.....63-68.
   24 HR TREND......2 DEGREES COOLER.
MIN HUMIDITY........63-68 PERCENT...EXCEPT 78-83 PERCENT ALONG THE
                    COAST.
   24 HR TREND......10 PERCENT WETTER...EXCEPT 3 PERCENT WETTER
                    ALONG THE COAST.
20-FOOT WINDS.......NORTHEAST WINDS 10 TO 15 MPH WITH OCCASIONAL
                    GUSTS UP TO 24 MPH.
HAINES INDEX........5 OR MODERATE POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME
                    DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH.
SMOKE DISPERSAL.....EXCELLENT (1120).
MIXING HEIGHT.......4400 FT AGL.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....EAST 18 TO 24 MPH.
PCPN AMOUNT.........NONE.


$$

MIZ020-025>027-282015-
LEELANAU...BENZIE...GRAND TRAVERSE AND KALKASKA
COUNTIES...INCLUDING THE SLEEPING BEAR DUNES NL-
346 AM EDT WED SEP 28 2016

.TODAY...
SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY CLOUDY (70-80 PERCENT). PATCHY FOG UNTIL
                    0800. CHANCE OF RAIN SHOWERS.
MAX TEMPERATURE.....63-68.
   24 HR TREND......9 DEGREES WARMER.
MIN HUMIDITY........53-58 PERCENT...EXCEPT 72-77 PERCENT ALONG THE
                    COAST.
   24 HR TREND......19 PERCENT DRIER...EXCEPT 4 PERCENT DRIER ALONG
                    THE COAST.
20-FOOT WINDS.......EAST WINDS 5 TO 10 MPH WITH OCCASIONAL GUSTS UP
                    TO 20 MPH.
HAINES INDEX........4 OR LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME DOMINATED
                    FIRE GROWTH.
SMOKE DISPERSAL.....EXCELLENT (1180).
MIXING HEIGHT.......6600 FT AGL.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....EAST 9 TO 15 MPH.
PCPN AMOUNT.........NONE TO 0.04 IN.

.TONIGHT...
SKY/WEATHER.........PARTLY CLOUDY (30-40 PERCENT). CHANCE OF RAIN
                    SHOWERS UNTIL 2000.
MIN TEMPERATURE.....50-55...EXCEPT AROUND 61 NEAR THE COAST.
   24 HR TREND......5 DEGREES WARMER.
MAX HUMIDITY........89-94 PERCENT...EXCEPT 78-83 PERCENT ALONG THE
                    COAST.
   24 HR TREND......8 PERCENT DRIER.
20-FOOT WINDS.......NORTHEAST WINDS 5 TO 10 MPH WITH OCCASIONAL
                    GUSTS UP TO 24 MPH.
HAINES INDEX........3 OR VERY LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME
                    DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH.
SMOKE DISPERSAL.....POOR (30).
MIXING HEIGHT.......300 FT AGL.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....NORTHEAST 9 TO 18 MPH.
PCPN AMOUNT.........NONE.

.THURSDAY...
SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY SUNNY (30-40 PERCENT).
MAX TEMPERATURE.....67-72.
   24 HR TREND......5 DEGREES WARMER.
MIN HUMIDITY........53-58 PERCENT...EXCEPT 62-67 PERCENT ALONG THE
                    COAST.
   24 HR TREND......2 PERCENT DRIER...EXCEPT 7 PERCENT DRIER ALONG
                    THE COAST.
20-FOOT WINDS.......NORTHEAST WINDS 10 TO 15 MPH.
HAINES INDEX........5 OR MODERATE POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME
                    DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH.
SMOKE DISPERSAL.....EXCELLENT (1660).
MIXING HEIGHT.......6300 FT AGL.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....NORTHEAST AROUND 12 MPH INCREASING TO AROUND 27
                    MPH IN THE AFTERNOON.
PCPN AMOUNT.........NONE.


$$

MIZ031>033-282015-
MANISTEE...WEXFORD AND MISSAUKEE COUNTIES...INCLUDING THE
NORTHERN QUARTER OF MANISTEE NF-
346 AM EDT WED SEP 28 2016

.TODAY...
SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY CLOUDY (70-80 PERCENT). PATCHY FOG UNTIL
                    0800. CHANCE OF RAIN SHOWERS.
MAX TEMPERATURE.....63-68.
   24 HR TREND......10 DEGREES WARMER.
MIN HUMIDITY........52-57 PERCENT...EXCEPT 62-67 PERCENT ALONG THE
                    COAST.
   24 HR TREND......20 PERCENT DRIER...EXCEPT 6 PERCENT DRIER ALONG
                    THE COAST.
20-FOOT WINDS.......EAST WINDS 5 TO 10 MPH.
HAINES INDEX........5 OR MODERATE POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME
                    DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH.
SMOKE DISPERSAL.....EXCELLENT (1540).
MIXING HEIGHT.......8400 FT AGL.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....EAST 9 TO 18 MPH.
PCPN AMOUNT.........NONE TO 0.05 IN.

.TONIGHT...
SKY/WEATHER.........PARTLY CLOUDY (40-50 PERCENT). CHANCE OF RAIN
                    SHOWERS UNTIL 2000...THEN SLIGHT CHANCE OF RAIN
                    SHOWERS UNTIL 0200.
MIN TEMPERATURE.....50-55.
   24 HR TREND......4 DEGREES WARMER.
MAX HUMIDITY........89-94 PERCENT...EXCEPT 79-84 PERCENT ALONG THE
                    COAST.
   24 HR TREND......7 PERCENT DRIER...EXCEPT 13 PERCENT DRIER ALONG
                    THE COAST.
20-FOOT WINDS.......NORTHEAST WINDS 5 TO 10 MPH.
HAINES INDEX........3 OR VERY LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME
                    DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH.
SMOKE DISPERSAL.....POOR (20).
MIXING HEIGHT.......300 FT AGL.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....NORTHEAST 9 TO 18 MPH.
PCPN AMOUNT.........NONE.

.THURSDAY...
SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY SUNNY (40-50 PERCENT).
MAX TEMPERATURE.....67-72.
   24 HR TREND......4 DEGREES WARMER.
MIN HUMIDITY........54-59 PERCENT.
   24 HR TREND......1 PERCENT WETTER.
20-FOOT WINDS.......NORTHEAST WINDS 10 TO 15 MPH.
HAINES INDEX........4 OR LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME DOMINATED
                    FIRE GROWTH.
SMOKE DISPERSAL.....EXCELLENT (1820).
MIXING HEIGHT.......6800 FT AGL.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....NORTHEAST AROUND 12 MPH INCREASING TO EAST
                    AROUND 27 MPH IN THE AFTERNOON.
PCPN AMOUNT.........NONE.


$$

MIZ028-029-034-035-041-282015-
CRAWFORD...OSCODA...ROSCOMMON...OGEMAW AND GLADWIN
COUNTIES...INCLUDING WESTERN HURON NF-
346 AM EDT WED SEP 28 2016

.TODAY...
SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY CLOUDY (70-80 PERCENT). PATCHY FOG UNTIL
                    0800. CHANCE OF RAIN SHOWERS. SLIGHT CHANCE OF
                    THUNDERSTORMS AFTER 1400.
MAX TEMPERATURE.....64-69.
   24 HR TREND......9 DEGREES WARMER.
MIN HUMIDITY........50-55 PERCENT.
   24 HR TREND......18 PERCENT DRIER.
20-FOOT WINDS.......EAST WINDS 5 TO 10 MPH WITH OCCASIONAL GUSTS UP
                    TO 20 MPH.
HAINES INDEX........5 OR MODERATE POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME
                    DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH.
SMOKE DISPERSAL.....EXCELLENT (1540).
MIXING HEIGHT.......8700 FT AGL.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....EAST AROUND 6 MPH INCREASING TO AROUND 18 MPH
                    IN THE AFTERNOON.
PCPN AMOUNT.........NONE TO 0.04 IN.

.TONIGHT...
SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY CLOUDY (55-65 PERCENT) UNTIL 2400...THEN
                    PARTLY CLOUDY (40-50 PERCENT). CHANCE OF RAIN
                    SHOWERS AND SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS
                    UNTIL 2000...THEN SLIGHT CHANCE OF RAIN
                    SHOWERS.
MIN TEMPERATURE.....51-56.
   24 HR TREND......6 DEGREES WARMER.
MAX HUMIDITY........91-96 PERCENT.
   24 HR TREND......6 PERCENT DRIER.
20-FOOT WINDS.......NORTHEAST WINDS 5 TO 10 MPH.
HAINES INDEX........3 OR VERY LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME
                    DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH.
SMOKE DISPERSAL.....POOR (40).
MIXING HEIGHT.......400 FT AGL.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....NORTHEAST 9 TO 18 MPH.
PCPN AMOUNT.........NONE.

.THURSDAY...
SKY/WEATHER.........PARTLY SUNNY (55-65 PERCENT). CHANCE OF RAIN
                    SHOWERS AFTER 0800.
MAX TEMPERATURE.....64-69.
   24 HR TREND......UNCHANGED.
MIN HUMIDITY........60-65 PERCENT.
   24 HR TREND......9 PERCENT WETTER.
20-FOOT WINDS.......NORTHEAST WINDS 10 TO 15 MPH.
HAINES INDEX........5 OR MODERATE POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME
                    DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH.
SMOKE DISPERSAL.....EXCELLENT (1540).
MIXING HEIGHT.......5700 FT AGL.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....NORTHEAST AROUND 15 MPH INCREASING TO EAST
                    AROUND 27 MPH IN THE AFTERNOON.
PCPN AMOUNT.........NONE.


$$

.EXTENDED...

.FRIDAY...MOSTLY CLOUDY WITH CHANCE OF SHOWERS. LOWS IN THE LOWER
50S. HIGHS IN THE MID 60S. NORTHEAST WINDS AROUND 10 MPH.
.SATURDAY...CLOUDY WITH SHOWERS LIKELY. LOWS IN THE LOWER 50S.
HIGHS IN THE LOWER 60S. EAST WINDS AROUND 10 MPH.
.SUNDAY...SHOWERS LIKELY. LOWS IN THE LOWER 50S. HIGHS IN THE MID
60S. NORTH WINDS AROUND 5 MPH.
.MONDAY...MOSTLY CLOUDY. CHANCE OF SHOWERS. LOWS AROUND 50. HIGHS
IN THE MID 60S. NORTH WINDS AROUND 5 MPH.
.TUESDAY...PARTLY CLOUDY. LOWS AROUND 50. HIGHS IN THE UPPER 60S.
SOUTHEAST WINDS AROUND 5 MPH.

$$

MLR



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