Routine Fire Wx Fcst (With/Without 6-10 Day Outlook)
Issued by NWS Jackson, KY

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140
FNUS53 KJKL 272140
FWFJKL

Fire Weather Planning Forecast for Eastern Kentucky
National Weather Service Jackson KY
440 PM EST Mon Feb 27 2017

...Severe Weather Threat Tuesday Afternoon Through Wednesday...

.DISCUSSION...The unusually warm weather pattern continues with
above normal temperatures and stormy weather expected through
midweek as a strong low pressure system develops and tracks from
the Plains into the Great Lakes and southern Canada. The best
chances for a more widespread and substantial rain will come
Tuesday into Wednesday evening when total rainfall for that period
could reach or exceed one inch. Severe weather and locally heavy
rainfall will also be a possibility during this time frame. Colder
and drier weather will return for the second half of the week and
likely continue through the weekend.

KYZ068-079-083-084-281000-
Rockcastle-Pulaski-Wayne-McCreary-
Including the cities of Brodhead, Mount Vernon, Burnside,
Somerset, Monticello, Stearns, and Whitley City
440 PM EST Mon Feb 27 2017

.TONIGHT...
Sky/weather.........Mostly cloudy. Isolated rain showers.
Min Temperature.....45-50.
   24 hr trend......10 degrees warmer.
Max Humidity........80-85 percent.
   24 hr trend......0-5 percent wetter.
Wind (20 ft)........South winds 5 to 10 mph.
LAL.................1.
Haines Index........5 or moderate potential for large plume
                    dominated fire growth.
ADI.................9.
LVORI...............4.
Prob of precip......20 percent.
QPF (inches)........0.00 - 0.05 inches.

.TUESDAY...
Sky/weather.........Cloudy. Isolated thunderstorms in the morning.
                    Numerous rain showers. Scattered thunderstorms
                    in the afternoon.
Max Temperature.....65-70.
   24 hr trend......10 degrees warmer.
Min Humidity........60-70 percent.
   24 hr trend......35 percent wetter.
Wind (20 ft)........South winds 5 to 15 mph.
LAL.................3.
Haines Index........4 or low potential for large plume dominated
                    fire growth.
Mixing Height.......2200 ft agl.
Transport Winds.....South around 10 mph increasing to 20 to 25 mph
                    in the afternoon.
Dispersion Index....48.
Vent Rate...........Fair (48200 knot-ft).
ADI.................26 increasing to 51 in the afternoon.
LVORI...............4.
Prob of precip......60 percent.
QPF (inches)........0.10 - 0.30 inches.

.TUESDAY NIGHT...
Sky/weather.........Cloudy. Scattered rain showers in the evening.
                    Scattered thunderstorms. Numerous rain showers.
Min Temperature.....Around 60.
   24 hr trend......10-15 degrees warmer.
Max Humidity........90-100 percent.
   24 hr trend......10 percent wetter.
Wind (20 ft)........South winds 10 to 15 mph.
LAL.................3.
Haines Index........3 or very low potential for large plume
                    dominated fire growth.
ADI.................26 increasing to 36 late.
LVORI...............4.
Prob of precip......80 percent.
QPF (inches)........0.20 - 0.55 inches.

.WEDNESDAY...
Sky/weather.........Cloudy. Rain showers and a chance of
                    thunderstorms.
Max Temperature.....65-70.
   24 hr trend......0-5 degrees warmer.
Min Humidity........50-60 percent.
   24 hr trend......15 percent drier.
Wind (20 ft)........Southwest winds 10 to 15 mph.
LAL.................3.
Haines Index........3 or very low potential for large plume
                    dominated fire growth.
Mixing Height.......4800 ft agl.
Transport Winds.....Southwest 30 to 35 mph.
Dispersion Index....165.
Vent Rate...........Excellent (164900 knot-ft).
ADI.................74 increasing to 119 in the afternoon.
LVORI...............3.
Prob of precip......90 percent.
QPF (inches)........0.55 - 0.90 inches.


$$

KYZ104-106>109-119-281000-
Elliott-Morgan-Johnson-Wolfe-Magoffin-Martin-
Including the cities of Sandy Hook, West Liberty, Paintsville,
Campton, Salyersville, and Inez
440 PM EST Mon Feb 27 2017

.TONIGHT...
Sky/weather.........Mostly cloudy.
Min Temperature.....Around 45.
   24 hr trend......10-15 degrees warmer.
Max Humidity........75-85 percent.
   24 hr trend......5-10 percent drier.
Wind (20 ft)........Southeast winds around 5 mph.
LAL.................1.
Haines Index........4 or low potential for large plume dominated
                    fire growth.
ADI.................10.
LVORI...............3.
Prob of precip......20 percent.
QPF (inches)........NONE.

.TUESDAY...
Sky/weather.........Cloudy. Scattered rain showers in the morning,
                    then numerous rain showers and scattered
                    thunderstorms in the afternoon.
Max Temperature.....65-70.
   24 hr trend......10 degrees warmer.
Min Humidity........55-60 percent.
   24 hr trend......25 percent wetter.
Wind (20 ft)........South winds 5 to 15 mph.
LAL.................3.
Haines Index........4 or low potential for large plume dominated
                    fire growth.
Mixing Height.......2200 ft agl.
Transport Winds.....South 10 to 15 mph increasing to around 20 mph
                    early in the afternoon.
Dispersion Index....41.
Vent Rate...........Fair (40600 knot-ft).
ADI.................24 increasing to 43 in the afternoon.
LVORI...............4.
Prob of precip......70 percent.
QPF (inches)........0.10 - 0.20 inches.

.TUESDAY NIGHT...
Sky/weather.........Cloudy. Scattered rain showers in the evening.
                    Scattered thunderstorms. Numerous rain showers.
Min Temperature.....Around 60.
   24 hr trend......10-15 degrees warmer.
Max Humidity........90-100 percent.
   24 hr trend......15-20 percent wetter.
Wind (20 ft)........Southwest winds 10 to 15 mph.
LAL.................3.
Haines Index........4 or low potential for large plume dominated
                    fire growth.
ADI.................26 increasing to 37 late.
LVORI...............4.
Prob of precip......70 percent.
QPF (inches)........0.15 - 0.45 inches.

.WEDNESDAY...
Sky/weather.........Cloudy. Rain showers and scattered
                    thunderstorms.
Max Temperature.....Around 70.
   24 hr trend......0-5 degree warmer.
Min Humidity........50-60 percent.
   24 hr trend......5 percent drier.
Wind (20 ft)........Southwest winds 10 to 15 mph.
LAL.................3.
Haines Index........3 or very low potential for large plume
                    dominated fire growth.
Mixing Height.......4700 ft agl.
Transport Winds.....Southwest around 35 mph.
Dispersion Index....139.
Vent Rate...........Excellent (139800 knot-ft).
ADI.................87 increasing to 102 in the afternoon.
LVORI...............4.
Prob of precip......90 percent.
QPF (inches)........0.50 - 0.80 inches.


$$

KYZ069-080-085>088-110>118-120-281000-
Jackson-Laurel-Whitley-Knox-Bell-Harlan-Floyd-Lee-Breathitt-Knott-
Owsley-Perry-Clay-Leslie-Letcher-Pike-
Including the cities of McKee, Annville, London, Corbin,
Williamsburg, Barbourville, Middlesboro, Pineville, Cumberland,
Harlan, Prestonsburg, Wheelwright, Beattyville, Jackson, Hindman,
Pippa Passes, Booneville, Hazard, Manchester, Hyden, Jenkins,
Whitesburg, Coal Run, Elkhorn City, Pikeville,
and South Williamson
440 PM EST Mon Feb 27 2017

.TONIGHT...
Sky/weather.........Mostly cloudy. Isolated rain showers.
Min Temperature.....Around 45.
   24 hr trend......10 degrees warmer.
Max Humidity........80-85 percent.
   24 hr trend......10-15 percent wetter.
Wind (20 ft)........Southeast winds 5 to 10 mph.
LAL.................1.
Haines Index........4 or low potential for large plume dominated
                    fire growth.
ADI.................9.
LVORI...............3.
Prob of precip......20 percent.
QPF (inches)........0.00 - 0.05 inches.

.TUESDAY...
Sky/weather.........Cloudy. Scattered rain showers in the morning,
                    then numerous rain showers and scattered
                    thunderstorms in the afternoon.
Max Temperature.....65-70.
   24 hr trend......5-10 degrees warmer.
Min Humidity........50-60 percent.
   24 hr trend......30-35 percent wetter.
Wind (20 ft)........South winds 5 to 15 mph.
LAL.................3.
Haines Index........4 or low potential for large plume dominated
                    fire growth.
Mixing Height.......2700 ft agl.
Transport Winds.....South around 10 mph increasing to 20 to 25 mph
                    in the afternoon.
Dispersion Index....61.
Vent Rate...........Good (60600 knot-ft).
ADI.................30 increasing to 58 in the afternoon.
LVORI...............3.
Prob of precip......60 percent.
QPF (inches)........0.05 - 0.30 inches.

.TUESDAY NIGHT...
Sky/weather.........Cloudy. Scattered thunderstorms in the evening.
                    Scattered rain showers. Isolated thunderstorms
                    late.
Min Temperature.....55-60.
   24 hr trend......10-15 degrees warmer.
Max Humidity........90-100 percent.
   24 hr trend......10-15 percent wetter.
Wind (20 ft)........South winds 5 to 15 mph.
LAL.................3.
Haines Index........3 or very low potential for large plume
                    dominated fire growth.
ADI.................33.
LVORI...............4.
Prob of precip......60 percent.
QPF (inches)........0.05 - 0.45 inches.

.WEDNESDAY...
Sky/weather.........Cloudy. Rain showers and a chance of
                    thunderstorms.
Max Temperature.....67-72.
   24 hr trend......0-5 degrees warmer.
Min Humidity........50-60 percent.
   24 hr trend......5-10 percent drier.
Wind (20 ft)........Southwest winds 5 to 15 mph.
LAL.................3.
Haines Index........3 or very low potential for large plume
                    dominated fire growth.
Mixing Height.......5400 ft agl.
Transport Winds.....Southwest 30 to 35 mph increasing to around 40
                    mph early in the afternoon.
Dispersion Index....181.
Vent Rate...........Excellent (185500 knot-ft).
ADI.................73 increasing to 124 in the afternoon.
LVORI...............3.
Prob of precip......90 percent.
QPF (inches)........0.45 - 0.80 inches.


$$

KYZ044-050>052-058>060-281000-
Fleming-Montgomery-Bath-Rowan-Estill-Powell-Menifee-
Including the cities of Flemingsburg, Camargo, Jeffersonville,
Mount Sterling, Owingsville, Morehead, Irvine, Ravenna,
Clay City, Stanton, and Frenchburg
440 PM EST Mon Feb 27 2017

.TONIGHT...
Sky/weather.........Mostly cloudy. Isolated rain showers.
Min Temperature.....Around 45.
   24 hr trend......5-10 degrees warmer.
Max Humidity........75-80 percent.
   24 hr trend......20-25 percent drier.
Wind (20 ft)........South winds around 5 mph.
LAL.................1.
Haines Index........5 or moderate potential for large plume
                    dominated fire growth.
ADI.................8.
LVORI...............4.
Prob of precip......20 percent.
QPF (inches)........0.00 - 0.05 inches.

.TUESDAY...
Sky/weather.........Cloudy. Numerous rain showers. Scattered
                    thunderstorms in the afternoon.
Max Temperature.....65-70.
   24 hr trend......10-15 degrees warmer.
Min Humidity........60-70 percent.
   24 hr trend......20 percent wetter.
Wind (20 ft)........South winds 5 to 15 mph.
LAL.................3.
Haines Index........4 or low potential for large plume dominated
                    fire growth.
Mixing Height.......2000 ft agl.
Transport Winds.....South around 10 mph increasing to 20 to 25 mph
                    in the afternoon.
Dispersion Index....40.
Vent Rate...........Fair (40500 knot-ft).
ADI.................22 increasing to 44 in the afternoon.
LVORI...............4.
Prob of precip......70 percent.
QPF (inches)........0.20 - 0.30 inches.

.TUESDAY NIGHT...
Sky/weather.........Cloudy. Scattered rain showers in the evening.
                    Scattered thunderstorms. Rain showers.
Min Temperature.....Around 60.
   24 hr trend......15 degrees warmer.
Max Humidity........90-100 percent.
   24 hr trend......15-20 percent wetter.
Wind (20 ft)........Southwest winds 10 to 15 mph.
LAL.................3.
Haines Index........3 or very low potential for large plume
                    dominated fire growth.
ADI.................30.
LVORI...............4.
Prob of precip......80 percent.
QPF (inches)........0.25 - 0.60 inches.

.WEDNESDAY...
Sky/weather.........Cloudy. Rain showers and a chance of
                    thunderstorms.
Max Temperature.....Around 65-70.
   24 hr trend......0-5 degrees warmer.
Min Humidity........50-60 percent.
   24 hr trend......5 percent drier.
Wind (20 ft)........Southwest winds 10 to 15 mph.
LAL.................3.
Haines Index........3 or very low potential for large plume
                    dominated fire growth.
Mixing Height.......5300 ft agl.
Transport Winds.....Southwest around 30 mph increasing to around 40
                    mph in the afternoon.
Dispersion Index....178.
Vent Rate...........Excellent (180600 knot-ft).
ADI.................104 increasing to 122 in the afternoon.
LVORI...............4.
Prob of precip......80 percent.
QPF (inches)........0.40 - 0.70 inches.

$$

.FORECAST DAYS 3 THROUGH 7...

.WEDNESDAY NIGHT...Mostly cloudy. A chance of showers and
thunderstorms in the evening. Lows in the mid 30s. West winds
5 to 10 mph.
.THURSDAY...Sunny. Highs around 50. West winds around 5 mph.
.THURSDAY NIGHT...Mostly clear. A slight chance of rain and snow
showers. Lows around 30. West winds around 5 mph.
.FRIDAY...Sunny. A slight chance of snow showers in the morning.
Highs in the mid 40s. Northwest winds around 5 mph.
.FRIDAY NIGHT...Mostly clear. Lows in the upper 20s. North winds
around 5 mph shifting to the southeast late.
.SATURDAY...Milder, sunny. Highs in the upper 50s. South winds
around 5 mph.
.SATURDAY NIGHT...Milder. Partly cloudy. Lows in the upper 30s.
Southwest winds around 5 mph.
.SUNDAY...Mostly sunny. Highs in the lower 60s. Southwest winds
around 5 mph.
.SUNDAY NIGHT...Mostly cloudy with a slight chance of showers.
Lows in the upper 40s. Southwest winds around 5 mph.
.MONDAY...Mostly cloudy. A slight chance of showers in the
morning, then a chance of showers in the afternoon. Highs in the
lower 60s. Southwest winds 5 to 10 mph.

$$
GREIF



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