Suppression Forecast
Issued by NWS Amarillo, TX

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000
FNUS74 KAMA 091428
FWSAMA

SPOT FORECAST FOR SOUTH ROSITA RX...NATIONAL PARK SERVICE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AMARILLO TX
828 AM CST TUE FEB 9 2016

FORECAST IS BASED ON IGNITION TIME OF 1000 CST ON FEBRUARY 10.
IF CONDITIONS BECOME UNREPRESENTATIVE...CONTACT THE NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE.

.DISCUSSION...
ON WEDNESDAY...20 FOOT WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO BE FROM THE WEST-
SOUTHWEST WITH SPEEDS NEAR 10 MPH AT IGNITION TIME...INCREASING TO 15
TO 20 MPH BETWEEN 11 AM AND 6 PM. WIND GUSTS OF 25 TO 30 MPH ARE
POSSIBLE. WITH A MINIMUM RELATIVE HUMIDITY OF 14 PERCENT EXPECTED AT
THE BURN SITE WEDNESDAY...ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS WILL BE
POSSIBLE DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS ON WEDNESDAY. OVERNIGHT HUMIDITY
RECOVERY TO NEAR 70 PERCENT IS EXPECTED WEDNESDAY NIGHT...WITH A
WEAK COLD FRONT BRINGING A WIND SHIFT TO NORTHERLY WINDS OF 10 TO 15
MPH AROUND MIDNIGHT.

.WEDNESDAY...

SKY/WEATHER.........SUNNY (0-5 PERCENT).
TEMPERATURE.........49 AT IGNITION...MAX 76.
RH..................38 PERCENT AT IGNITION...MIN 13 PERCENT.
WIND (20 FT)........WINDS WEST AT 10 MPH AT IGNITION...OTHERWISE
                    SOUTHWEST WINDS 7 TO 14 MPH.
CHANCE OF PCPN......0 PERCENT.
LAL.................1.
HAINES INDEX........5 OR MODERATE POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME
                    DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH.
MIXING HEIGHT.......500 FT AGL AT IGNITION...OTHERWISE 0-1500 FT
                    AGL INCREASING TO 2000-3000 FT AGL EARLY IN THE
                    AFTERNOON...THEN DECREASING TO 1000 FT AGL LATE
                    IN THE AFTERNOON.
MIXING WINDS........WEST 7 TO 16 MPH SHIFTING TO THE SOUTHWEST 9 TO
                    17 MPH EARLY IN THE AFTERNOON.

TIME (CST)      10 AM  NOON   2 PM   4 PM
SKY (%).........CLEAR  CLEAR  CLEAR  CLEAR
WEATHER COV.....
WEATHER TYPE....NONE   NONE   NONE   NONE
TEMP............49     64     73     75
RH..............38     22     15     13
20 FT WIND......W 10   W 14   W 14   SW 13
20 FT WIND GUST.15     20     20     20
CHC OF PCPN (%).0      0      0      0
HAINES INDEX....5      5      5      5

.WEDNESDAY NIGHT...

SKY/WEATHER.........CLEAR (0-10 PERCENT).
TEMPERATURE.........MIN 33.
RH..................MAX 71 PERCENT.
WIND (20 FT)........NORTHWEST WINDS 7 TO 8 MPH.
CHANCE OF PCPN......0 PERCENT.
LAL.................1.
HAINES INDEX........5 OR MODERATE POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME
                    DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH.
MIXING HEIGHT.......0-500 FT AGL.
MIXING WINDS........NORTHWEST 6 TO 7 MPH.

TIME (CST)      6 PM   8 PM   10 PM  MIDNGT 2 AM   4 AM
SKY (%).........CLEAR  CLEAR  CLEAR  MCLEAR MCLEAR MCLEAR
WEATHER COV.....
WEATHER TYPE....NONE   NONE   NONE   NONE   NONE   NONE
TEMP............67     54     48     44     40     37
RH..............16     27     35     43     50     57
20 FT WIND......SW 8   SW 8   SW 8   W 7    NW 8   NW 8
20 FT WIND GUST.10     10     10     10     10     10
CHC OF PCPN (%).0      0      0      0      0      0
HAINES INDEX....5      5      5      5      5      5

.THURSDAY...

SKY/WEATHER.........SUNNY (5-15 PERCENT).
TEMPERATURE.........MAX 64.
RH..................MIN 22 PERCENT.
WIND (20 FT)........NORTHEAST WINDS 6 TO 10 MPH.
CHANCE OF PCPN......0 PERCENT.
LAL.................1.
HAINES INDEX........5 OR MODERATE POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME
                    DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH.
MIXING HEIGHT.......0-1500 FT AGL INCREASING TO 2000-3500 FT AGL IN
                    THE AFTERNOON.
MIXING WINDS........NORTHEAST 6 TO 12 MPH DECREASING TO AROUND 2
                    MPH LATE IN THE AFTERNOON.

TIME (CST)      6 AM   8 AM   10 AM  NOON   2 PM   4 PM
SKY (%).........MCLEAR MCLEAR MCLEAR MCLEAR MCLEAR MCLEAR
WEATHER COV.....
WEATHER TYPE....NONE   NONE   NONE   NONE   NONE   NONE
TEMP............34     34     46     56     63     64
RH..............67     70     45     30     23     22
20 FT WIND......N 8    N 7    N 8    NE 10  NE 8   NE 7
20 FT WIND GUST.10     10     10     15     10     10
CHC OF PCPN (%).0      0      0      0      0      0
HAINES INDEX....5      5      5      3      3      3

$$
FORECASTER...FENNER
REQUESTED BY...TODD WOOD
TYPE OF REQUEST...PRESCRIBED
.TAG 20160210.SOUTH.01/AMA


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