Suppression Forecast
Issued by NWS Gaylord, MI

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FNUS73 KAPX 131338
FWSAPX

Spot Forecast for Piles...USFS
National Weather Service Gaylord MI
838 AM EST Mon Nov 13 2017

Forecast is based on ignition time of 0900 EST on November 13.
If conditions become unrepresentative...contact the National Weather
Service.

Please contact our office at (989) 732-9306, if you have questions
or concerns with this forecast.

.DISCUSSION...A moisture-rich boundary layer will result in
continued cloudy, damp, and chilly weather today. There is a
slight chance for some patchy drizzle this morning, but the better
chance for that will remain over interior northern Lower. High
pressure ridge building into the region will result in continued
light westerly winds today, shifting to the south on Tuesday.
Clouds expected to break up a little tonight and more so on
Tuesday.

.TODAY...

Sky/weather.........Cloudy (90-100 percent).
Temperature.........35 at ignition...Max 39.
RH..................89 percent at ignition...Min 73 percent.
Wind (20 ft)........Winds west at 4 mph at ignition...otherwise
                    Light winds becoming west around 5 mph early in
                    the afternoon, then becoming light late in the
                    afternoon.
Mixing height.......200 ft AGL at ignition...otherwise 100-1900 ft
                    AGL.
Transport winds.....West 1 to 8 mph.
Vent rate...........Poor /0 at ignition. Max...fair /200/.
Haines Index........3 or very low potential for large plume
                    dominated fire growth at ignition...max 3.

TIME (EST)      9AM 10A 11A 12P 1PM 2PM 3PM 4PM 5PM
Sky (%).........99  99  99  99  99  98  98  97  97
Weather cov.....
Weather type....
Tstm cov........
Temp............35  36  37  38  39  39  39  38  36
RH..............89  82  79  79  76  73  73  76  82
20 FT wind dir..W   W   W   W   W   W   W   W   W
20 FT wind spd..4   4   4   4   4   5   4   4   3
20 FT wind gust.5   5   5   5   5       5   5   5
Mix hgt (kft)...0.2 0.4 0.9 1.5 1.9 1.9 1.8 1.6 1.5
Transp wind dir.W   W   W   W   W   W   W   W   W
Transp wind spd.1   2   3   6   7   8   8   8   8
Haines index....3   3   3   3   3   3   3   3   3
VRate/100.......0   0   0   1   1   2   1   1   1

.TONIGHT...

Sky/weather.........Mostly cloudy (75-85 percent).
Temperature.........Min 27.
RH..................Max 100 percent.
Wind (20 ft)........Light winds.
Mixing height.......1000-1900 ft AGL.
Transport winds.....West 5 to 7 mph.
Vent rate...........Poor (0).
Haines Index........3 or very low potential for large plume
                    dominated fire growth.

TIME (EST)      6PM 7PM 8PM 9PM 10P 11P MID 1AM 2AM 3AM 4AM 5AM
Sky (%).........97  97  94  88  82  76  70  67  67  68  68  69
Weather cov.....
Weather type....
Tstm cov........
Temp............34  33  32  32  31  30  30  29  29  29  28  28
RH..............89  92  92  92  92  96  96  100 96  96  100 96
20 FT wind dir..W   W   W   W   W   W   W   W   W   W   W   W
20 FT wind spd..3   2   2   2   2   2   2   2   2   2   2   2
20 FT wind gust.5   5   5   5   5   5   5   5   5   5   5   5
Mix hgt (kft)...1.5 1.5 1.6 1.8 1.9 1.8 1.7 1.5 1.4 1.3 1.2 1.0
Transp wind dir.W   W   W   W   W   W   W   W   W   W   W   W
Transp wind spd.7   6   5   5   5   5   6   6   6   5   5   5
Haines index....3   3   3   3   3   3   3   3   3   3   3   3
VRate/100.......1   1   1   1   1   1   1   1   1   1   1   0

.TUESDAY...

Sky/weather.........Partly sunny (50-60 percent).
Temperature.........Max 43.
RH..................Min 65 percent.
Wind (20 ft)........Light winds becoming south 5 to 6 mph late in
                    the morning.
Mixing height.......600-1600 ft AGL.
Transport winds.....South 5 to 13 mph.
Vent rate...........Poor to fair (0-200).
Haines Index........2 to 3 or very low potential for large plume
                    dominated fire growth.

TIME (EST)      6 AM   8 AM   10 AM  NOON   2 PM   4 PM
Sky (%).........65     61     55     47     45     55
Weather cov.....
Weather type....NONE   NONE   NONE   NONE   NONE   NONE
Tstm cov........
Temp............28     29     36     40     43     41
RH..............92     88     75     70     65     70
20 ft wind......SW 2   SW 2   SW 4   S 5    S 6    S 6
20 ft wind gust.5      5      5             10     10
Mix hgt (ft)....700    600    800    1400   1500   1200
Transport wind..SW 5   SW 5   SW 7   S 10   S 12   S 10
Haines index....3      3      2      3      3      2
VRate/100.......0      0      1      1      2      1

$$
Forecaster...Mike Kurz
Requested by...USFS
Type of request...PRESCRIBED
.TAG 1718700.0/APX



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