Suppression Forecast
Issued by NWS Gaylord, MI

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000
FNUS73 KAPX 021342
FWSAPX

SPOT FORECAST FOR FLETCHER 1   3 UPDATED...DNR
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GAYLORD MI
942 AM EDT MON MAY 2 2016

FORECAST IS BASED ON IGNITION TIME OF 1005 EDT ON MAY 02.
IF CONDITIONS BECOME UNREPRESENTATIVE...CONTACT THE NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE.

.DISCUSSION...
WEAK HIGH PRESSURE OVER LAKE SUPERIOR WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD INTO
NORTHERN MICHIGAN TODAY. NO PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED UNTIL LATE
TUESDAY...WHEN A COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE NORTHWEST.

LIGHT NORTHEAST WINDS WILL BE SEEN TODAY AT THE FIRE SITE...THOUGH
THERE WILL BE A FEW GUSTS OF 10 TO 15 MPH. HUMIDITY LEVELS WILL
LOWER TO AROUND 35 PERCENT.


.TODAY...

SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY SUNNY (20-30 PERCENT) THEN BECOMING
                    PARTLY CLOUDY (35-45 PERCENT).
TEMPERATURE.........52 AT IGNITION...MAX 62.
RH..................63 PERCENT AT IGNITION...MIN 35 PERCENT.
WIND (20 FT)........WINDS NORTHEAST AT 5 MPH AT
                    IGNITION...OTHERWISE LIGHT WINDS BECOMING
                    NORTHEAST 5 TO 6 MPH LATE IN THE MORNING...THEN
                    BECOMING LIGHT LATE IN THE AFTERNOON.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....NORTHEAST 6 TO 14 MPH DECREASING TO AROUND 3
                    MPH LATE IN THE AFTERNOON.
MIXING HEIGHT.......1800 FT AGL AT IGNITION...OTHERWISE 100-1800 FT
                    AGL INCREASING TO 8700 FT AGL.
HAINES INDEX........3 OR VERY LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME
                    DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH AT IGNITION...MAX 4.
SMOKE DISPERSAL.....EXCELLENT (600) AT IGNITION. MAX...EXCELLENT
                    (900).

TIME (EDT)      10A 11A 12P 1PM 2PM 3PM 4PM 5PM
SKY (%).........29  33  37  46  51  49  46  45
WEATHER COV.....
WEATHER TYPE....
TEMP............47  52  57  58  59  60  61  61
RH..............63  52  45  42  39  36  35  35
20 FT WIND DIR..NE  NE  NE  NE  NE  NE  NE  N
20 FT WIND SPD..4   5   6   6   6   5   5   4
20 FT WIND GUST.10  10  15  15  10  10  10  10
HAINES INDEX....3   3   3   3   3   3   4   4
SMOKE DISP......400 600 900 900 900 800 500 300

.TONIGHT...

SKY/WEATHER.........PARTLY CLOUDY (25-35 PERCENT).
TEMPERATURE.........MIN 35.
RH..................MAX 89 PERCENT.
WIND (20 FT)........LIGHT WINDS.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....WEST 2 TO 6 MPH.

TIME (EDT)      6PM 7PM 8PM 9PM 10P 11P MID 1AM 2AM 3AM 4AM 5AM
SKY (%).........43  40  39  37  34  30  27  23  21  22  23  24
WEATHER COV.....
WEATHER TYPE....
TEMP............60  58  56  53  50  47  45  43  41  39  38  37
RH..............37  42  47  53  61  68  73  76  79  83  87  89
20 FT WIND DIR..N   N   N   N   N   N   N   W   SW  SW  W   W
20 FT WIND SPD..4   4   4   3   3   2   2   2   2   2   2   2
20 FT WIND GUST.10  10  10  5   5   5   5   5   5   5   5   5

.TUESDAY...

SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY SUNNY (25-35 PERCENT) THEN BECOMING
                    PARTLY CLOUDY (45-55 PERCENT) THEN BECOMING
                    MOSTLY CLOUDY (65-75 PERCENT).
TEMPERATURE.........MAX 64.
RH..................MIN 34 PERCENT.
WIND (20 FT)........LIGHT WINDS BECOMING SOUTHWEST 6 TO 9 MPH WITH
                    OCCASIONAL GUSTS UP TO 16 MPH IN THE LATE
                    MORNING AND AFTERNOON.

TIME (EDT)      6 AM   8 AM   10 AM  NOON   2 PM   4 PM
SKY (%).........25     26     29     36     57     66
WEATHER COV.....
WEATHER TYPE....NONE   NONE   NONE   NONE   NONE   NONE
TEMP............38     41     53     61     63     64
RH..............87     79     52     39     36     34
20 FT WIND......W 2    SW 2   SW 6   W 7    W 7    W 8
20 FT WIND GUST.5      5      10     15     15     20

$$
FORECASTER...JEFF ZOLTOWSKI
REQUESTED BY...DON KLINGLER
TYPE OF REQUEST...PRESCRIBED
.TAG 20160502.FLETC.02/APX



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