Suppression Forecast
Issued by NWS State College, PA

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000
FNUS71 KCTP 270956
FWSCTP

SPOT FORECAST FOR SAW TRAINING...PA DCNR
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
556 AM EDT FRI MAY 27 2016

FORECAST IS BASED ON IGNITION TIME OF 0545 EDT ON MAY 27.
IF CONDITIONS BECOME UNREPRESENTATIVE...CONTACT THE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN STATE COLLEGE.

.DISCUSSION...

HIGH PRESSURE OFF THE EAST COAST WILL SUPPLY THE REGION WITH LIGHT
WIND...HIGH HUMIDITY AND SCATTERED AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORMS TODAY AND
SATURDAY.

&&

.TODAY...

SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY SUNNY. A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND
                    THUNDERSTORMS EARLY IN THE AFTERNOON. A CHANCE
                    OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS EARLY IN THE
                    AFTERNOON.
MAX TEMPERATURE.....AROUND 84.
MIN HUMIDITY........46 PERCENT.
WIND (20 FT)........LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS...BECOMING SOUTH 5 TO
                    7 MPH IN THE LATE MORNING AND AFTERNOON. GUSTY
                    AND ERRATIC WINDS EXPECTED NEAR THUNDERSTORMS
                    IN THE AFTERNOON.
LAL.................NO TSTMS UNTIL 1200...THEN 1-8 STRIKES UNTIL
                    1400...THEN 9-15 STRIKES.
MIXING HEIGHT.......0-1300 FT AGL...INCREASING TO 4600-6500 FT AGL.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....SOUTHWEST 3 TO 12 MPH.
HAINES INDEX........5 OR MODERATE POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME
                    DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH.

TIME (EDT)          6AM 7AM 8AM 9AM 10A 11A 12P 1PM 2PM 3PM 4PM 5PM
SKY (%).............46  49  47  44  37  33  38  49  54  52  50  49
WEATHER COV.........                        SCH SCH CHC CHC CHC CHC
WEATHER TYPE........                        RW  RW  RW  RW  RW  RW
TSTM COV............                        SCH SCH CHC CHC CHC CHC
TEMP................68  69  71  73  75  77  79  81  83  83  84  83
RH..................81  81  76  71  69  64  58  53  49  47  46  47
20 FT WIND DIR......W   W   W   W   SW  SW  SW  SW  SW  SW  S   S
20 FT WIND SPD......3   3   2   3   5   5   5   6   6   6   7   7
20 FT WIND GUST.....5   5   5   5       10  10  10  10  10  10  10
MIX HGT (KFT).......0.1 0.1 0.4 1.3 2.6 3.8 4.6 5.3 5.8 6.3 6.5 6.0
TRANSP WIND DIR.....SW  SW  SW  SW  SW  SW  SW  SW  SW  SW  SW  SW
TRANSP WIND SPD.....3   3   3   5   7   8   9   9   9   10  12  12
LAL.................1   1   1   1   1   1   2   2   3   3   3   3
HAINES INDEX........3   3   3   3   3   3   4   4   5   5   4   4

.TONIGHT...

SKY/WEATHER.........PARTLY CLOUDY...THEN BECOMING MOSTLY
                    CLOUDY...THEN BECOMING PARTLY CLOUDY. A CHANCE
                    OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS EARLY IN THE
                    EVENING...THEN A SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS
                    IN THE EVENING. A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS IN
                    THE EVENING.
MIN TEMPERATURE.....AROUND 66.
MAX HUMIDITY........87 PERCENT.
WIND (20 FT)........SOUTHWEST WINDS 7 TO 8 MPH. GUSTY AND ERRATIC
                    WINDS EXPECTED NEAR THUNDERSTORMS IN THE
                    EVENING.
LAL.................9-15 STRIKES UNTIL 2200...THEN 1-8 STRIKES
                    UNTIL 2400...THEN NO TSTMS.
MIXING HEIGHT.......4200 FT AGL...DECREASING TO 0-1900 FT AGL.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....SOUTH 3 TO 10 MPH.
HAINES INDEX........4 OR LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME DOMINATED
                    FIRE GROWTH.

TIME (EDT)          6PM 7PM 8PM 9PM 10P 11P MID 1AM 2AM 3AM 4AM 5AM
SKY (%).............49  50  51  50  47  45  43  40  39  40  42  43
WEATHER COV.........CHC SCH SCH SCH SCH SCH SCH
WEATHER TYPE........RW  RW  RW  RW  RW  RW  RW
TSTM COV............CHC SCH SCH SCH SCH SCH
TEMP................82  79  77  75  73  71  70  69  68  67  67  66
RH..................51  58  64  69  71  76  78  78  81  84  84  87
20 FT WIND DIR......S   S   S   S   S   S   S   SW  SW  SW  SW  SW
20 FT WIND SPD......7   7   7   7   8   8   8   8   8   8   7   7
20 FT WIND GUST.....10  10      10  10  10  10  10  10  10  10  10
MIX HGT (KFT).......4.2 1.9 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1
TRANSP WIND DIR.....SW  SW  SW  SW  SW  SW  SW  SW  SW  SW  S   S
TRANSP WIND SPD.....10  9   8   7   7   6   6   5   5   5   3   3
LAL.................3   3   3   3   2   2   2   1   1   1   1   1
HAINES INDEX........4   4   4   4   4   4   4   4   4   4   4   4

.SATURDAY...

SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY SUNNY. A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND
                    THUNDERSTORMS EARLY IN THE AFTERNOON. A CHANCE
                    OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS EARLY IN THE
                    AFTERNOON.
MAX TEMPERATURE.....AROUND 84.
MIN HUMIDITY........51 PERCENT.
WIND (20 FT)........SOUTH WINDS 5 TO 9 MPH. GUSTY AND ERRATIC WINDS
                    EXPECTED NEAR THUNDERSTORMS IN THE AFTERNOON.
LAL.................NO TSTMS UNTIL 1200...THEN 1-8 STRIKES UNTIL
                    1400...THEN 9-15 STRIKES.
MIXING HEIGHT.......0-1200 FT AGL...INCREASING TO 5300-7200 FT AGL.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....SOUTHWEST 1 TO 2 MPH...BECOMING NORTHWEST 2 TO
                    3 MPH LATE IN THE MORNING...THEN BECOMING SOUTH
                    3 TO 9 MPH IN THE AFTERNOON.
HAINES INDEX........4 OR LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME DOMINATED
                    FIRE GROWTH.

TIME (EDT)          6AM 7AM 8AM 9AM 10A 11A 12P 1PM 2PM 3PM 4PM 5PM
SKY (%).............42  41  40  41  42  43  46  53  56  56  56  56
WEATHER COV.........                        SCH SCH CHC CHC CHC CHC
WEATHER TYPE........                        RW  RW  RW  RW  RW  RW
TSTM COV............                        SCH SCH CHC CHC CHC CHC
TEMP................67  69  70  73  75  78  79  81  82  83  84  84
RH..................87  81  81  76  71  67  64  58  56  55  51  51
20 FT WIND DIR......SW  SW  SW  SW  S   S   S   S   S   S   S   S
20 FT WIND SPD......6   6   5   5   5   5   6   7   8   9   9   9
20 FT WIND GUST.....                                10  10  10  10
MIX HGT (KFT).......0.1 0.1 0.1 1.2 2.8 4.4 5.7 6.7 7.2 7.0 6.3 5.3
TRANSP WIND DIR.....S   SW  SW  SW  NW  N   NW  SW  S   S   S   S
TRANSP WIND SPD.....2   1   1   1   2   3   3   3   5   6   8   9
LAL.................1   1   1   1   1   1   2   2   3   3   3   3
HAINES INDEX........4   3   3   3   3   3   3   4   4   4   4   4

$$
FORECASTER...FITZGERALD
REQUESTED BY...SHAWN TURNER
TYPE OF REQUEST...PRESCRIBED
.TAG 20160527.SAWTR.01/CTP


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