Suppression Forecast
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FNUS74 KEPZ 261719
FWSEPZ

Spot Forecast for Indian Creek...BIA-MESCALERO
National Weather Service Santa Teresa NM/El Paso TX
1119 AM MDT Sun Mar 26 2017

Forecast is based on request time of 1200 MDT on March 26.

If conditions become unrepresentative...contact the El Paso
National Weather Service Forecast Office.

.DISCUSSION...
Expect winds across the fire area to increase soon as inversion
breaks and west slopes start to heat up.  Breezy to windy
conditions will be the norm for the next several days
with the strongest winds Tuesday, but there will be an increase
in moisture as an upper low moves into the region.  Temperatures
today and tomorrow are expected to be in the lower to mid 60s but
likely struggle to get much above 50 Tuesday.

.TODAY...

Sky/weather.........Mostly sunny (10-20 percent).
Chance of pcpn......0 percent.
LAL.................1.
Max temperature.....Around 60.
Min humidity........17 percent.
Wind (20 ft)........West winds 12 to 18 mph. Gusts up to 30 mph.
Mixing height.......4100 ft AGL increasing to 6300 ft AGL in the
                    afternoon.
Transport winds.....West 25 mph.
Smoke dispersal.....Good (93900 knot-ft) increasing to very good
                    (147000 knot-ft) in the afternoon.
Haines Index........2 to 3 or very low potential for large plume
                    dominated fire growth.

TIME (MDT)      NOON   2 PM   4 PM
Sky (%).........11     11     11
Weather cov.....NONE   NONE   NONE
Weather type....NONE   NONE   NONE
Tstm cov........NONE   NONE   NONE
Chc of pcpn (%).0      0      0
LAL.............1      1      1
Temp............51     57     60
RH..............27     21     17
20 ft wind......W 15   W 18   W 15
20 ft wind gust.25     25     25
Mix hgt (ft)....5300   6300   6300
Transport wind..W 23   W 25   W 25
Haines index....2      3      3
Vent Rate.......VYGD   VYGD   VYGD

.TONIGHT...

Sky/weather.........Mostly clear (15-25 percent).
Chance of pcpn......0 percent.
LAL.................1.
Min temperature.....Around 37.
Max humidity........46 percent.
Wind (20 ft)........West winds 6 to 11 mph with gusts to around 20
                    mph until early morning becoming downslope
Haines Index........3 or very low potential for large plume
                    dominated fire growth.

TIME (MDT)      6 PM   8 PM   10 PM  MIDNGT 2 AM   4 AM
Sky (%).........22     22     22     21     21     21
Weather cov.....NONE   NONE   NONE   NONE   NONE   NONE
Weather type....NONE   NONE   NONE   NONE   NONE   NONE
Tstm cov........NONE   NONE   NONE   NONE   NONE   NONE
Chc of pcpn (%).0      0      0      0      0      0
LAL.............1      1      1      1      1      1
Temp............58     49     44     42     39     37
RH..............22     25     29     35     42     45
20 ft wind......W 12   W 9    W 6    W 6    E 5    E 4
20 ft wind gust.25     20     10     10     10     5
Haines index....3      3      3      3      3      3

.MONDAY...

Sky/weather.........Mostly sunny (15-25 percent).
Chance of pcpn......0 percent.
LAL.................1.
Max temperature.....Around 63.
Min humidity........18 percent.
Wind (20 ft)........Light winds becoming southwest 10 to 18 mph
                    with gusts to around 30 mph in the late morning
                    and afternoon.
Mixing height.......4000-5200 ft AGL.
Transport winds.....Southwest 20 to 21 mph.
Smoke dispersal.....Poor (36600 knot-ft) increasing to good (91100
                    knot-ft) in the afternoon.
Haines Index........2 to 3 or very low potential for large plume
                    dominated fire growth.

TIME (MDT)      6 AM      9 AM      NOON      3 PM
Sky (%).........10        10        34        34
Weather cov.....NONE      NONE      NONE      NONE
Weather type....NONE      NONE      NONE      NONE
Tstm cov........NONE      NONE      NONE      NONE
Chc of pcpn (%).0         0         0         0
LAL.............1         1         1         1
Temp............38        45        55        63
RH..............42        35        23        17
20 FT wind......E 3G5     S 4G10    SW 9G15   SW 14G25
Mix hgt (ft)....4000      4000      5200      5200
Transport wind..S 3       S 6       SW 13     SW 20
Haines index....3         2         3         3
Vent Rate.......POOR      POOR      GOOD      GOOD

$$
Forecaster...GRZYWACZ
Requested by...Aldon Coriz
Type of request...WILDFIRE
.TAG 1705224.0/EPZ
.EMAIL nmadc@fs.fed.us



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