Suppression Forecast
Issued by NWS

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000
FNUS74 KEPZ 300050
FWSEPZ

Spot Forecast for Baca Fire...USFS
National Weather Service Santa Teresa NM/El Paso TX
650 PM MDT Mon May 29 2017

Forecast is based on request time of 0600 MDT on May 30.

If conditions become unrepresentative...contact the El Paso
National Weather Service Forecast Office.

.DISCUSSION...
Forecast models give Catron/Grant counties a fairly good chance for
wetting rains Tuesday into Wednesday at this time with the greatest pops
at this time in the Tuesday night Wednesday morning time frame. Moisture continues
to slowly move into the region. Thunderstorms will continue to develop
across the higher terrain Main threat with the storms In the Gila, where
the air will slightly drier, the main threat will be dry lightning and
strong winds. This pattern will repeat itself through Wednesday with
wetting rains expected over all fire weather zones. Late Thursday into
Friday the moisture will start to erode across the western Fire Weather Zones.
As this happens storm chances will move east of the Rio Grande and
continue through the rest of the week. Any lingering storms over the
Gila and Bootheel regions could produce dry lighting.


.TUESDAY...

Sky/weather.........Mostly cloudy (65-75 percent). Scattered
                    showers and thunderstorms.
Chance of pcpn......50 percent.
LAL.................4.
Min temperature.....41-45.
Max humidity........81-86 percent.
Wind (20 ft)........South winds 7 to 12 mph with gusts to around 25
                    mph. Gusty and erratic winds expected near
                    thunderstorms.
Mixing height.......500-14400 ft AGL.
Transport winds.....Southeast 12 to 13 mph.
Smoke dispersal.....Poor to good (3100-91500 knot-ft).
Haines Index........3 to 5 or very low potential for large plume
                    dominated fire growth to or moderate potential
                    for large plume dominated fire growth.

TIME (MDT)      6 AM   8 AM   10 AM  NOON   2 PM   4 PM   6 PM   8 PM   10 PM  MIDNGT 2 AM   4 AM
Sky (%).........53     53     53     90     90     90     86     86     86     73     73     73
Weather cov.....CHANCE CHANCE CHANCE CHANCE CHANCE CHANCE SCTTRD SCTTRD SCTTRD SCTTRD SCTTRD SCTTRD
Weather type....RNSHWR RNSHWR RNSHWR RNSHWR RNSHWR RNSHWR RNSHWR RNSHWR RNSHWR RNSHWR RNSHWR RNSHWR
Tstm cov........CHANCE CHANCE CHANCE CHANCE CHANCE CHANCE SCTTRD SCTTRD SCTTRD SCTTRD SCTTRD SCTTRD
Chc of pcpn (%).30     30     30     50     50     50     40     40     40     30     30     30
LAL.............4      4      4      5      5      5      5      5      5      4      4      4
Temp............45     51     62     67     71     71     67     57     50     46     44     43
RH..............73     56     36     30     26     27     33     49     65     72     78     84
20 ft wind......S 14   S 11   S 8    S 7    SW 8   SW 8   S 6    S 5    SE 6   SE 7   S 6    S 7
20 ft wind gust.25     20     15     15     15     15     10     10     10     15     10     15
Mix hgt (ft)....9800   9800   9800   14400  14400  14400  1100   1100   1100   500    500    500
Transport wind..SE 9   S 15   S 14   SE 8   SE 5   S 12   SW 21  SE 9   SE 3   S 7    S 7    SE 7
Haines index....3      3      3      4      5      4      3      4      4      3      3      3
Vent Rate.......GOOD   GOOD   GOOD   GOOD   GOOD   GOOD   POOR   POOR   POOR   POOR   POOR   POOR

.WEDNESDAY...

Sky/weather.........Mostly cloudy (75-85 percent). Slight chance of
                    showers and thunderstorms in the morning, then
                    numerous showers and thunderstorms in the
                    afternoon.
Chance of pcpn......60 percent.
LAL.................3 until 1200, then 5.
Max temperature.....65-66.
Min humidity........47-48 percent.
Wind (20 ft)........Southwest winds 6 to 11 mph gust 15 mph. Gusty and erratic
                    winds expected near thunderstorms.
Mixing height.......10000-11600 ft AGL.
Transport winds.....South 9 to 10 mph shifting to the east late in
                    the afternoon.
Smoke dispersal.....Good (75800 knot-ft).
Haines Index........3 or very low potential for large plume
                    dominated fire growth.

TIME (MDT)      6 AM   8 AM   10 AM  NOON   2 PM   4 PM
Sky (%).........74     74     74     89     89     89
Weather cov.....S CHNC S CHNC S CHNC NUMRUS NUMRUS NUMRUS
Weather type....RNSHWR RNSHWR RNSHWR RNSHWR RNSHWR RNSHWR
Tstm cov........S CHNC S CHNC S CHNC NUMRUS NUMRUS NUMRUS
Chc of pcpn (%).20     20     20     60     60     60
LAL.............3      3      3      5      5      5
Temp............42     48     58     62     66     66
RH..............96     83     62     55     48     48
20 ft wind......S 10   S 11   S 11   S 10   SW 8   SW 5
20 ft wind gust.15     20     20     15     15     10
Mix hgt (ft)....10000  10000  10000  11600  11600  11600
Transport wind..SE 8   S 13   S 13   SW 8   S 10   SE 8
Haines index....3      3      3      3      3      3
Vent Rate.......GOOD   GOOD   GOOD   GOOD   GOOD   GOOD

.WEDNESDAY NIGHT...

Sky/weather.........Mostly cloudy (65-75 percent). Isolated showers
                    and thunderstorms.
Chance of pcpn......20 percent.
LAL.................3.
Min temperature.....Around 46.
Max humidity........79 percent.
Wind (20 ft)........Light winds becoming southwest 5 to 8 mph after
                    midnight. Gusty and erratic winds expected near
                    thunderstorms.
Mixing height.......6500 ft AGL decreasing to 0 ft AGL after
                    midnight.
Transport winds.....Southwest 9 to 10 mph shifting to the south 5
                    to 6 mph early in the evening.
Smoke dispersal.....Fair (58600 knot-ft) decreasing to poor (0
                    knot-ft) after midnight.
Haines Index........3 or very low potential for large plume
                    dominated fire growth until early morning.

TIME (MDT)      6 PM      9 PM      MIDNGT    3 AM
Sky (%).........72        72        72        72
Weather cov.....ISOLTD    ISOLTD    ISOLTD    ISOLTD
Weather type....RNSHWR    RNSHWR    RNSHWR    RNSHWR
Tstm cov........ISOLTD    ISOLTD    ISOLTD    ISOLTD
Chc of pcpn (%).20        20        20        20
LAL.............5         5         5         5
Temp............63        54        50        47
RH..............51        66        71        74
20 FT wind......SW 3G5    S 5G10    S 6G10    SW 9G15
Mix hgt (ft)....6500      6500      BLW100    BLW100
Transport wind..SW 10     E 6       SE 3      SW 6
Haines index....3         3         3         3
Vent Rate.......FAIR      FAIR      POOR      POOR


$$
Forecaster...NOVLAN
Requested by...Robb Beery
Type of request...WILDFIRE
.TAG 1710269.0/EPZ
.EMAIL rbeery@rimgis.com



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