Suppression Forecast
Issued by NWS Austin/San Antonio, TX

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000
FNUS74 KEWX 121450
FWSEWX

SPOT FORECAST FOR SWIFT UNIT 12...TEXAS A&M FOREST SERVICE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
850 AM CST THU JAN 12 2017

FORECAST IS BASED ON IGNITION TIME OF 1100 CST ON JANUARY 12.
IF CONDITIONS BECOME UNREPRESENTATIVE...CONTACT THE NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE.

.DISCUSSION...
SOUTHERLY 10-15 MPH WINDS WITH GUSTS TO 20 MPH ARE EXPECTED LATER
THIS MORNING AND AFTERNOON AS RELATIVELY MOIST CONDITIONS CONTINUE
WITH MIN RH VALUES REMAINING AROUND 60 PERCENT. CLOUD COVER SHOULD
BE GREATER THAN YESTERDAY TO HELP DELAY THE ONSET OF MIXING ALOFT
WHERE WINDS ARE A LITTLE WEAKER THAN YESTERDAY. HOWEVER...IF CLOUD
COVER IS LESS THAN FORECAST AND GREATER VERTICAL MIXING OCCURS
THERE COULD BE SOME STRONGER WIND GUSTS CLOSER TO 25 MPH MATCHING
THE TRANSPORT WINDS FORECAST. SUSTAINED WIND SPEEDS WILL DECREASE
BELOW 10 MPH THIS EVENING WITH A MORE SOUTHEASTERLY HEADING. RAIN
CHANCES INCREASE TOMORROW WITH A SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS.

.TODAY...

SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY CLOUDY (75-85 PERCENT). SLIGHT CHANCE OF
                    SHOWERS.
CWR.................2 PERCENT.
LAL.................NO TSTMS.
MAX TEMPERATURE.....AROUND 79.
MIN HUMIDITY........60 PERCENT.
EYE LEVEL WINDS.....SOUTH WINDS 6 TO 14 MPH GUSTING TO 20 MPH.
WIND (20 FT)........SOUTH WINDS 6 TO 14 MPH GUSTING TO 20 MPH.
MIXING HEIGHT.......1500-2900 FT AGL INCREASING TO 3500-5400 FT AGL
                    LATE IN THE MORNING.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....SOUTH 12 TO 20 MPH INCREASING TO 21 TO 24 MPH
                    IN THE LATE MORNING AND AFTERNOON.
HAINES INDEX........3 TO 4 OR VERY LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME
                    DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH TO OR LOW POTENTIAL FOR
                    LARGE PLUME DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH.

TIME (CST)      11A 12P 1PM 2PM 3PM 4PM 5PM
SKY (%).........86  85  79  73  71  71  71
WEATHER COV.....SCH SCH SCH SCH SCH SCH SCH
WEATHER TYPE....RW  RW  RW  RW  RW  RW  RW
TSTM COV........
CWR.............0   0   0   0   0   0   0
LAL.............1   1   1   1   1   1   1
TEMP............71  72  74  76  79  78  77
RH..............81  79  71  66  60  62  64
20 FT WIND DIR..S   S   S   S   S   S   S
20 FT WIND SPD..11  12  13  13  12  11  8
20 FT WIND GUST.20  20  20  20  20  20  15
EYE LVL WND DIR.S   S   S   S   S   S   S
EYE LVL WND SPD.7   7   8   8   7   7   5
EYE LVL WND GST.20  20  20  20  20  20  15
MIX HGT (KFT)...3.9 3.9 4.3 5.1 5.4 4.8 3.5
TRANSP WIND DIR.S   S   S   S   S   S   SE
TRANSP WIND SPD.23  24  24  24  23  22  21
HAINES INDEX....3   3   3   3   3   3   3

.TONIGHT...

SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY CLOUDY (75-85 PERCENT). SLIGHT CHANCE OF
                    SHOWERS.
CWR.................4 PERCENT.
LAL.................NO TSTMS.
MIN TEMPERATURE.....AROUND 64.
MAX HUMIDITY........100 PERCENT.
EYE LEVEL WINDS.....SOUTHEAST WINDS 5 TO 8 MPH.
WIND (20 FT)........SOUTHEAST WINDS 5 TO 8 MPH.
MIXING HEIGHT.......1100-2900 FT AGL DECREASING TO 600-1000 FT AGL
                    IN THE LATE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....SOUTHEAST 12 TO 20 MPH DECREASING TO 10 TO 12
                    MPH EARLY IN THE MORNING.
HAINES INDEX........3 OR VERY LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME
                    DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH.

TIME (CST)      6PM 7PM 8PM 9PM 10P 11P MID 1AM 2AM 3AM 4AM 5AM
SKY (%).........71  73  75  77  76  75  74  77  81  84  85  85
WEATHER COV.....SCH SCH SCH SCH SCH SCH SCH SCH SCH SCH SCH SCH
WEATHER TYPE....RW  RW  RW  RW  RW  RW  RW  RW  RW  RW  RW  RW
TSTM COV........
CWR.............0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0
LAL.............1   1   1   1   1   1   1   1   1   1   1   1
TEMP............75  74  72  71  70  70  69  68  67  66  65  65
RH..............69  71  73  76  78  81  84  87  93  97  100 97
20 FT WIND DIR..SE  SE  SE  SE  SE  SE  SE  SE  SE  SE  SE  SE
20 FT WIND SPD..6   6   7   8   8   8   8   5   6   6   6   5
20 FT WIND GUST.10  10  10  15  15  15  15
EYE LVL WND DIR.SE  SE  SE  SE  SE  SE  SE  SE  SE  SE  SE  SE
EYE LVL WND SPD.4   4   4   5   5   5   5   3   4   4   4   3
EYE LVL WND GST.10  10  10  15  15  15  15
MIX HGT (KFT)...2.9 2.3 1.1 0.6 0.7 0.9 1.0 0.9 0.9 0.8 0.9 1.0
TRANSP WIND DIR.SE  SE  SE  SE  SE  SE  SE  SE  SE  SE  SE  SE
TRANSP WIND SPD.20  18  17  16  15  14  13  12  12  10  10  12
HAINES INDEX....3   3   3   3   3   3   3   3   3   3   3   3

.FRIDAY...

SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY CLOUDY (75-85 PERCENT). CHANCE OF
                    SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS.
CWR.................6 PERCENT.
LAL.................1-8 STRIKES.
MAX TEMPERATURE.....AROUND 75.
MIN HUMIDITY........69 PERCENT.
EYE LEVEL WINDS.....SOUTHEAST WINDS 5 TO 8 MPH.
WIND (20 FT)........SOUTHEAST WINDS 5 TO 8 MPH. GUSTY AND ERRATIC
                    WINDS EXPECTED NEAR THUNDERSTORMS.
MIXING HEIGHT.......1000-2200 FT AGL INCREASING TO 3300-4400 FT AGL
                    LATE IN THE MORNING, THEN INCREASING TO
                    4800-6200 FT AGL EARLY IN THE AFTERNOON
                    DECREASING TO 1800 FT AGL LATE IN THE
                    AFTERNOON.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....SOUTHEAST 12 TO 21 MPH.
HAINES INDEX........3 OR VERY LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME
                    DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH.

TIME (CST)      6AM 7AM 8AM 9AM 10A 11A 12P 1PM 2PM 3PM 4PM 5PM
SKY (%).........86  87  88  89  87  84  82  81  79  78  77  75
WEATHER COV.....CHC CHC CHC CHC CHC CHC CHC CHC CHC CHC CHC CHC
WEATHER TYPE....RW  RW  RW  RW  RW  RW  RW  RW  RW  RW  RW  RW
TSTM COV........ISO ISO ISO ISO ISO ISO ISO ISO ISO ISO ISO ISO
CWR.............10  10  10  10  10  10  0   0   0   0   0   0
LAL.............2   2   2   2   2   2   2   2   2   2   2   2
TEMP............64  64  64  65  67  69  72  74  75  75  74  73
RH..............100 100 100 97  90  87  79  74  69  69  71  71
20 FT WIND DIR..SE  SE  SE  SE  SE  SE  SE  SE  SE  SE  SE  SE
20 FT WIND SPD..5   5   6   6   7   7   8   8   8   8   7   7
20 FT WIND GUST.            10  10  10  15  15  15  15  10  10
EYE LVL WND DIR.SE  SE  SE  SE  SE  SE  SE  SE  SE  SE  SE  SE
EYE LVL WND SPD.3   3   4   4   4   4   5   5   5   5   4   4
EYE LVL WND GST.            10  10  10  15  15  15  15  10  10
MIX HGT (KFT)...1.0 1.2 1.5 1.6 2.2 3.3 3.8 4.4 5.6 6.2 4.8 1.8
TRANSP WIND DIR.SE  SE  SE  SE  S   S   S   S   SE  SE  SE  SE
TRANSP WIND SPD.12  13  15  17  18  20  21  20  18  16  14  12
HAINES INDEX....3   3   3   3   3   3   3   3   3   3   3   3

$$
FORECASTER...00
REQUESTED BY...STEVEN MOORE
TYPE OF REQUEST...PRESCRIBED
.TAG 1700341.0/EWX
.EMAIL SMOORE@TFS.TAMU.EDU


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