Suppression Forecast
Issued by NWS Wilmington, NC

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000
FNUS72 KILM 212035
FWSILM

Spot Forecast for Jones Lake Wx Burn 1/22/18...NC State Parks
National Weather Service WILMINGTON NC
335 PM EST Sun Jan 21 2018

Forecast is based on ignition time of 1600 EST on January 21.
If conditions become unrepresentative...or if you have questions
or concerns about this forecast...contact the National Weather
Service in Wilmington at 910-762-1374.

.DISCUSSION...
Mild weather will precede a cold front that will bring showers
mainly on Tuesday. After a brief cooldown behind the front the
late week period will once again feature a warming trend. The
next front and rain chances come Sunday.

Fog potential for tonight...Low

.TONIGHT...

Sky/weather.........Mostly clear (5-15 percent).
Chance of pcpn......0 percent.
Min temperature.....Around 39.
Max humidity........100 percent.
Wind (20 ft)........Light and variable winds.
Min Mixing Hgt......300 ft agl.
Transport winds.....South 1 to 3 mph.
Min Vent Rate.......229 mph-ft.
Max LVORI...........10.
Min ADI.............0.

TIME (EST)      6PM 7PM 8PM 9PM 10P 11P MID 1AM 2AM 3AM 4AM 5AM
Sky (%).........6   5   5   6   6   6   7   7   9   10  12  13
Weather cov.....
Weather type....
Tstm cov........
Temp............59  55  53  51  49  48  46  44  43  43  42  40
RH..............54  63  71  75  79  84  89  94  96  98  100 100
CHC Pcpn (%)....0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0
20 FT wind dir..SE  SE  SE  SE  S   S   S   S   S   S   S   S
20 FT wind spd..1   1   1   2   3   3   3   3   2   2   2   2
20 FT wind gust.
Mix hgt (kft)...1.8 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.3
Transp wind dir.SE  SE  SE  SE  S   S   S   S   S   S   S   S
Transp wind spd.2   1   1   2   3   3   3   3   2   2   2   2
Haines Index....3   4   4   4   4   4   4   4   4   4   3   3
VR MPH-FT*1000..4   0   0   1   1   1   1   1   1   1   1   1
Stability.......G   G   G   G   G   G   G   G   G   G   G   G
LVORI...........3   3   4   4   4   5   7   7   8   10  10  10
ADI.............1   0   1   1   1   1   1   1   1   1   1   1
Aparnt Tmp (F)..59  55  53  51  49  47  45  44  43  43  42  40
Sfc pres (in)...014 014 014 014 014 014 014 012 012 012 012 012

.MONDAY...

Sky/weather.........Mostly sunny (35-45 percent), then becoming
                    mostly cloudy (65-75 percent).
Chance of pcpn......10 percent.
Max temperature.....Around 67.
Min humidity........52 percent.
Wind (20 ft)........Light and variable winds, becoming south 6 to 8
                    mph in the afternoon.
Max Mixing Hgt......2800 ft agl.
Transport winds.....South 2 to 9 mph, increasing to 13 to 16 mph in
                    the afternoon.
Max Vent Rate.......46575 mph-ft.
Max LVORI...........9.
Max ADI.............51.

TIME (EST)      6AM 7AM 8AM 9AM 10A 11A 12P 1PM 2PM 3PM 4PM 5PM
Sky (%).........15  16  22  29  35  41  47  53  57  62  66  70
Weather cov.....
Weather type....
Tstm cov........
Temp............39  40  43  48  53  58  62  65  67  67  66  63
RH..............100 100 98  85  72  63  56  53  52  53  58  67
CHC Pcpn (%)....0   0   0   0   0   10  10  10  10  10  10  10
20 FT wind dir..S   SE  SE  S   S   S   S   S   S   S   S   S
20 FT wind spd..2   2   2   2   3   4   6   7   8   8   8   7
20 FT wind gust.                        8   10  11  12  11  10
Mix hgt (kft)...0.3 0.3 0.4 0.6 0.7 1.4 2.0 2.6 2.7 2.8 2.8 2.0
Transp wind dir.S   SE  SE  S   S   S   S   SW  SW  S   S   S
Transp wind spd.2   2   2   2   3   6   9   13  15  16  16  14
Haines Index....3   4   4   4   4   4   4   3   3   3   2   2
VR MPH-FT*1000..1   1   1   1   2   8   19  33  41  46  47  27
Stability.......B   B   B   B   B   C   C   C   C   C   C   D
LVORI...........9   9   9   5   3   2   2   1   1   1   1   3
ADI.............3   3   2   2   3   10  23  37  45  51  51  26
Aparnt Tmp (F)..39  40  43  48  53  58  62  65  67  67  66  63
Sfc pres (in)...012 014 014 014 014 014 014 004 004 004 004 004

.MONDAY NIGHT...

Sky/weather.........Mostly cloudy (80-90 percent). A chance of
                    showers after midnight.
Chance of pcpn......30 percent.
Min temperature.....Around 56.
Max humidity........100 percent.
Wind (20 ft)........South winds 6 to 11 mph.
Min Mixing Hgt......300 ft agl.
Transport winds.....South 7 to 14 mph.
Min Vent Rate.......1609 mph-ft.
Max LVORI...........8.
Min ADI.............4.

TIME (EST)      6 PM   8 PM   10 PM  MIDNGT 2 AM   4 AM
Sky (%).........74     80     81     84     89     95
Weather cov.....                            CHANCE CHANCE
Weather type....NONE   NONE   NONE   NONE   RNSHWR RNSHWR
Tstm cov........
Temp............60     56     56     56     56     56
RH..............78     93     94     98     100    100
CHC Pcpn (%)....10     10     10     10     30     30
20 ft wind......S 6    S 6    S 7    S 8    S 10   S 11
20 ft wind gust.10     8      10     12     13     14
Mix hgt (ft)....1000   300    300    300    300    300
Transport wind..S 9    S 7    S 9    S 10   S 13   S 14
Haines Index....2      3      3      3      3      3
VR MPH-FT*1000..9      2      2      3      3      3
Stability.......D      E      D      D      D      D
LVORI...........4      6      6      8      7      7
ADI.............9      4      8      10     11     12
Aparnt Tmp (F)..60     56     56     56     56     56
Sfc pres (in)...30.04  29.99  29.99  29.99  29.86  29.86

$$
Forecaster...Bacon
Requested by...L. Garner
Type of request...PRESCRIBED
.TAG 1800659.0/ILM
.EMAIL lane.garner@ncparks.gov



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