Suppression Forecast
Issued by NWS Louisville, KY

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FNUS73 KLMK 191324
FWSLMK

SPOT FORECAST FOR RABBIT HASH RIDGE...THE NATURE CONSERVANCY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOUISVILLE KY
924 AM EDT SAT APR 19 2014

FORECAST IS BASED ON IGNITION TIME OF 0925 EDT ON APRIL 19.
IF CONDITIONS BECOME UNREPRESENTATIVE...CONTACT THE NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE.

.DISCUSSION...A STEADY SURFACE WIND OUT OF THE NORTHEAST WILL DEVELOP
TODAY BETWEEN A SURFACE HIGH CENTERED OVER THE GREAT LAKES AND A
LOW PRESSURE OVER FLORIDA. EXPECT SLIGHTLY DRIER AIR TO ADVECT
INTO THE AREA FROM THE NORTHEAST...ALONG WITH SOME DRIER AIR MIXING
DOWN FROM ALOFT. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR MINIMUM RELATIVE HUMIDITIES TO
BOTTOM OUT IN THE 25-30 PERCENT RANGE. HAVE ADJUSTED THE MIN RH A
BIT LOWER THAN WHAT RAW DATA WOULD GIVE ME TO ACCOUNT FOR THE SOUTH
FACING ASPECT AND RIDGETOP AT RABBIT HASH. OTHERWISE...EXPECT MOSTLY
SUNNY SKIES WITH TEMPERATURES TOPPING OUT IN THE MID 70S. THE GOOD
MIXING HEIGHTS AND TRANSPORT WINDS WILL RESULT IN IMPROVING SMOKE
DISPERSAL SHORTLY AFTER IGNITION.

.TODAY...

SKY/WEATHER.........SUNNY.
MAX TEMPERATURE.....59 AT IGNITION...MAX 75.
MIN HUMIDITY........54 PERCENT AT IGNITION...MIN 25 PERCENT.
20-FOOT WINDS.......WINDS NORTHEAST AT 7 MPH AT
                    IGNITION...OTHERWISE NORTHEAST WINDS 5 TO 9
                    MPH.
MIXING HEIGHT.......1000 FT AGL AT IGNITION...INCREASING TO 2600-4500
                    FT AGL.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....NORTHEAST 7 TO 14 MPH INCREASING TO 14 TO 21
                    MPH.
SMOKE DISPERSAL.....POOR /10500 KNOT-FT/ AT IGNITION. INCREASING TO
                    GOOD TO EXCELLENT (31700-73800 KNOT-FT) IN THE
                    AFTERNOON.

TIME (EDT)      9 AM   11 AM  1 PM   3 PM   5 PM   7 PM
SKY (%).........11     9      8      8      8      7
WEATHER COV.....
WEATHER TYPE....NONE   NONE   NONE   NONE   NONE   NONE
TEMP............57     63     69     73     75     73
RH..............56     46     36     29     25     32
20 FT WIND......N 5    NE 7   NE 8   NE 8   NE 7   NE 6
20 FT WIND GUST.10     15     15     15     15     10
MIX HGT (FT)....600    1500   3200   4200   4500   2600
TRANSPORT WIND..NE 8   NE 14  NE 20  NE 20  NE 16  NE 14

.TONIGHT...

SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY CLEAR.
MIN TEMPERATURE.....MIN 47.
MAX HUMIDITY........MAX 80 PERCENT.
20-FOOT WINDS.......NORTHEAST WINDS 5 TO 7 MPH UNTIL MIDNIGHT
                    BECOMING LIGHT.

TIME (EDT)      8 PM   10 PM  MIDNGT 2 AM   4 AM   6 AM
SKY (%).........7      7      8      8      10     13
WEATHER COV.....
WEATHER TYPE....NONE   NONE   NONE   NONE   NONE   NONE
TEMP............70     63     56     52     50     49
RH..............35     43     55     63     71     74
20 FT WIND......NE 6   NE 5   NE 5   NE 4   NE 4   NE 4
20 FT WIND GUST.10     10     10     5      5      5
MIX HGT (FT)....1700   700    200    200    200    200
TRANSPORT WIND..NE 13  NE 9   NE 7   NE 7   NE 6   NE 5

.SUNDAY...

SKY/WEATHER.........SUNNY.
MAX TEMPERATURE.....MAX 79.
MIN HUMIDITY........MIN 33 PERCENT.
20-FOOT WINDS.......LIGHT WINDS.
MIXING HEIGHT.......200-1600 FT AGL INCREASING TO 4500-4900 FT AGL.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....SOUTH 3 TO 6 MPH.
SMOKE DISPERSAL.....POOR TO FAIR (800-24600 KNOT-FT).

TIME (EDT)      8 AM   10 AM  NOON   2 PM   4 PM   6 PM
SKY (%).........15     15     15     16     21     29
WEATHER COV.....
WEATHER TYPE....NONE   NONE   NONE   NONE   NONE   NONE
TEMP............49     60     71     76     78     79
RH..............80     55     41     36     35     34
20 FT WIND......E 4    SE 3   SE 2   SE 1   S 2    S 2
20 FT WIND GUST.5      5      5             5      5
MIX HGT (FT)....200    1100   2400   3900   4600   4700
TRANSPORT WIND..E 5    SE 3   S 5    S 6    S 6    S 6

$$
FORECASTER...B.SCHOETTMER
REQUESTED BY...CHAD BLADOW
TYPE OF REQUEST...PRESCRIBED
.TAG 20140419.RABBI.01/LMK






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