Suppression Forecast
Issued by NWS Louisville, KY

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FNUS73 KLMK 211501
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Spot Forecast for Bird Cemetery Burn...USFS
National Weather Service Louisville, KY
1101 AM EDT Sat Oct 21 2017

Forecast is based on ignition time of 1500 CDT on October 21.
If conditions become unrepresentative...contact the National Weather
Service.

.DISCUSSION...Dispersion should be better today, especially by
midday. Mixing heights will lift to 2.5-3.5 kft. Transport winds will
also get a boost, increasing out of the S/SSW to 10-15 mph.
Minimum relative humidity values are still expected to be in the
35-45 percent range. Dry weather is likely today and tonight, with
high cirrus clouds drifting overhead. We will likely stay dry
through the daylight hours on Sunday. Sunday will be a warm,
breezy day. Surface wind gusts of 20-25 mph are likely on Sunday,
with high temperatures rising into the upper 70s. A soaking
rainfall is still expected Monday and Monday night. Much cooler
air will arrive by midweek.

.TODAY...

Sky/weather.........Mostly sunny (35-45 percent).
Max temperature.....Around 78.
Min humidity........40 percent.
Wind (20 ft)........Light winds becoming south 5 to 6 mph in the
                    afternoon.
Mixing height.......100-1500 ft AGL increasing to 2300-3000 ft AGL
                    in the afternoon.
Transport winds.....South 3 to 12 mph increasing to around 13 mph
                    early in the afternoon.
Smoke dispersal.....Poor to good (300-32900 knot-ft).
LVORI...............5.
ADI.................4 increasing to 36.
DSI.................2.

TIME (CDT)      3PM 4PM
Sky (%).........55  56
Weather cov.....
Weather type....
Tstm cov........
Temp............78  77
RH..............40  42
20 FT wind dir..S   S
20 FT wind spd..6   5
20 FT wind gust.
Mix hgt (kft)...2.8 2.4
Transp wind dir.S   S
Transp wind spd.13  13
Dispersion......2   2
LVORI...........1   1
ADI.............39  36
VRate kt-ft/100031  27

.TONIGHT...

Sky/weather.........Partly cloudy (35-45 percent).
Min temperature.....Around 58.
Max humidity........75 percent.
Wind (20 ft)........South winds around 5 mph early in the evening
                    becoming light, then becoming south around 5
                    mph after midnight becoming light becoming
                    south around 5 mph early in the morning
                    becoming light.
Mixing height.......400-2000 ft AGL.
Transport winds.....South 10 to 14 mph.
Smoke dispersal.....Poor to fair (4800-19900 knot-ft).
LVORI...............3.
ADI.................28 decreasing to 7.
DSI.................2.

TIME (CDT)      5PM 6PM 7PM 8PM 9PM 10P 11P MID 1AM 2AM 3AM 4AM
Sky (%).........50  47  49  43  35  39  43  38  39  39  27  26
Weather cov.....
Weather type....
Tstm cov........
Temp............74  70  67  65  64  63  63  63  62  62  61  60
RH..............48  55  61  66  66  67  67  66  67  68  70  70
20 FT wind dir..S   SE  SE  SE  SE  SE  SE  S   S   S   S   S
20 FT wind spd..5   3   2   3   3   3   5   5   5   3   5   3
20 FT wind gust.    5   5   5   5   5               5       5
Mix hgt (kft)...2.0 1.5 1.0 0.7 0.6 0.5 0.4 0.4 0.5 0.5 0.5 0.5
Transp wind dir.S   S   SE  S   S   S   S   S   S   S   S   S
Transp wind spd.12  12  10  10  10  12  13  13  14  14  14  14
Dispersion......2   2   2   2   2   2   2   2   2   2   2   2
LVORI...........2   3   3   3   3   3   3   3   3   3   3   3
ADI.............28  8   5   7   5   5   8   6   6   6   6   6
VRate kt-ft/100020  15  9   7   5   5   5   5   6   6   6   6

.SUNDAY...

Sky/weather.........Mostly sunny (40-50 percent). Slight chance of
                    rain showers early in the afternoon.
Max temperature.....Around 78.
Min humidity........54 percent.
Wind (20 ft)........South winds 5 to 9 mph.
Mixing height.......500-2100 ft AGL increasing to 2600-3100 ft AGL
                    early in the afternoon.
Transport winds.....South 14 to 21 mph.
Smoke dispersal.....Poor to good (6000-52900 knot-ft).
LVORI...............3.
ADI.................9 increasing to 44.
DSI.................2.

TIME (CDT)      5AM 6AM 7AM 8AM 9AM 10A 11A 12P 1PM 2PM 3PM 4PM
Sky (%).........31  43  49  50  52  54  54  54  55  55  54  54
Weather cov.....                                SCH SCH SCH SCH
Weather type....                                RW  RW  RW  RW
Tstm cov........
Temp............59  58  59  61  65  68  71  74  76  77  78  77
RH..............73  75  73  69  68  65  63  59  58  56  54  56
20 FT wind dir..S   S   S   S   S   S   S   S   S   S   S   S
20 FT wind spd..5   5   5   6   7   7   8   9   9   9   8   7
20 FT wind gust.                15  15  15  15  15  15  15  15
Mix hgt (kft)...0.5 0.5 0.5 0.6 0.8 1.1 1.6 2.1 2.6 2.9 3.1 3.1
Transp wind dir.S   S   S   S   S   S   S   S   S   S   S   S
Transp wind spd.14  15  15  15  15  15  17  20  21  21  20  20
Dispersion......2   2   2   2   2   2   2   2   2   2   2   2
LVORI...........3   4   3   3   3   3   2   1   1   1   1   1
ADI.............6   11  11  11  12  20  29  39  46  48  47  48
VRate kt-ft/10006   6   7   8   10  14  23  36  46  52  52  53

.FORECAST DAYS 3 THROUGH 5...
.MONDAY...
Cooler. Mostly cloudy with showers likely. Lows in the upper 50s.
Highs in the upper 60s. Light winds.
.TUESDAY...
Cooler, showers. Lows in the upper 40s. Highs in the upper 50s.
Northwest winds around 6 mph.
.WEDNESDAY...
Mostly cloudy. Slight chance of showers. Lows in the upper 30s.
Highs in the mid 50s. West winds around 6 mph.

$$
Forecaster...AMS
Requested by...Brad Lidell
Type of request...PRESCRIBED
.TAG 1717665.0/LMK
.EMAIL blidell@fs.fed.us



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