Suppression Forecast
Issued by NWS Los Angeles, CA

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FNUS76 KLOX 291943
FWSLOX

SPOT FORECAST FOR REFUGIO INCIDENT...USCG
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOS ANGELES/OXNARD CA
1243 PM PDT FRI MAY 29 2015

FORECAST IS BASED ON INCIDENT TIME OF 1202 PDT ON MAY 29.
IF CONDITIONS BECOME UNREPRESENTATIVE...CONTACT THE NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE.

.DISCUSSION...
AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE AREA WILL PERSIST THROUGH SATURDAY.
THE MARINE LAYER IS EXPECTED TO SHRINK OVERNIGHT PRODUCING PATCHY
DENSE FOG IN SOME LOCATIONS NEAR THE COAST. A PERIOD OF NORTHWEST
TO NORTH WINDS WILL AFFECT THE FAR WESTERN SANTA BARBARA SOUTH
COAST THIS EVENING... ESPECIALLY WEST OF REFUGIO...BUT WIND GUSTS
SHOULD STAY BELOW 15 MPH. AN UPPER TROUGH APPROACHING FROM THE
WEST WILL PUSH THE RIDGE EASTWARD...BEGINNING A TREND TOWARD
INCREASING ONSHORE FLOW SUNDAY AFTERNOON WITH GUSTS NEAR 15
MPH...AND INCREASING MARINE LAYER DEPTH SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY.

THE UPPER TROUGH WILL CROSS THE CALIFORNIA COAST LATE SUNDAY
NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY. THIS WILL CAUSE A MORE SIGNIFICANT INCREASE
IN ONSHORE WINDS...WITH GUSTS 20 TO 25 MPH POSSIBLE DURING THE
AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS MONDAY AND TUESDAY. THE WINDS WILL
CAUSE AN INCREASE IN SHORTER PERIOD WIND WAVES.

A LONG PERIOD SOUTH-SOUTHEAST SWELL FROM A TROPICAL STORM WEST OF
MAINLAND MEXICO WILL BEGIN TO ARRIVE IN THE COASTAL WATERS LATE
SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY. WHILE THIS SWELL WILL BE MOSTLY BLOCKED
BY THE CHANNEL ISLANDS...SOME OF THE ENERGY MAY FILTER THROUGH THE
ISLANDS AND APPROACH THE SPILL AREA. AT THIS TIME...SOUTHERLY
SWELL MAY CAUSE THE SURF TO BUILD TO 2 TO 3 FEET LATE SUNDAY NIGHT
INTO MONDAY. THE SWELL AND SURF WILL LIKELY BEGIN TO SUBSIDE
MONDAY NIGHT AS THE SWELL SHIFTS TOWARD A MORE DIRECTLY SOUTH
DIRECTION.

.TONIGHT...

SKY/WEATHER.........PARTLY CLOUDY (25-35 PERCENT) THEN LOW
                    CLOUDS AND PATCHY FOG LATE (85-95 PERCENT).
TEMPERATURE.........MIN 54.
RH..................MAX 95 PERCENT.
WIND (20 FT)........NORTHWEST TO NORTH WINDS 6 TO 10 MPH IN THE
                    EVENING BECOMING VARIABLE 1 TO 3 MPH AFTER
                    MIDNIGHT.
SWELL HEIGHT........SOUTHWEST SWELL 1 FOOT.
SWELL PERIOD........13 SECONDS.
WIND WAVE...........1 TO 2 FEET IN THE EVENING...BECOMING FLAT.
TIDE INFORMATION....HIGH TIDE AT 759 PM PDT...HEIGHT 5.3 FEET.
                    LOW TIDE AT 250 AM PDT...HEIGHT 0.5 FEET.

.SATURDAY...

SKY/WEATHER.........LOW CLOUDS AND PATCHY FOG IN THE MORNING
                    (85-95 PERCENT) THEN BECOMING MOSTLY
                    SUNNY (25-35 PERCENT).
TEMPERATURE.........MAX 64-66.
RH..................MIN 54 PERCENT.
WIND (20 FT)........VARIABLE 1 TO 3 MPH BECOMING SOUTH 3 TO 6
                    MPH LATE IN THE MORNING THEN BECOMING
                    SOUTHWEST 6 TO 9 MPH IN THE AFTERNOON.
SWELL HEIGHT........SOUTHWEST SWELL 1 TO 2 FEET.
SWELL PERIOD........13 SECONDS.
WIND WAVE...........FLAT IN THE MORNING...BUILDING TO 1 FOOT.
TIDE INFORMATION....HIGH TIDE AT 901 AM PDT...HEIGHT 3.6 FEET.
                    LOW TIDE AT 158 PM PDT...HEIGHT 1.7 FEET.


$$
FORECASTER...SMITH
REQUESTED BY...NWS OXNARD
TYPE OF REQUEST...HAZMAT
.TAG 20150529.REFUG.02/LOX


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