Suppression Forecast
Issued by NWS St. Louis, MO

Home | Current Version | Previous Version | Text Only | Print | Product List | Glossary On
Versions: 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8
758
FNUS73 KLSX 110034
FWSLSX

Spot Forecast for Smith Mill Fire...USFS MTNF
National Weather Service Saint Louis MO
634 PM CST Sun Dec 10 2017

Forecast is based on request time of 1900 CST on December 10.
If conditions become unrepresentative, contact the
National Weather Service.

.DISCUSSION...
Surface winds will be light tonight, gradually backing to southwesterly
overnight. Surface winds will remain from the southwest on Monday
morning increasing and becoming gusty as the morning progresses. There
will be a wind shift to the west and then northwest during the afternoon.

There is a heightened fire danger on Monday afternoon for parts of
central, east central, and southeast Missouri.  This is because of
expected low relative humidity, dry fuels, and sustained westerly
winds between 12-15 mph with higher gusts.  A cold front will move
across the area on Monday causing winds to shift from southwest to
northwest during the day.  Little if any precipitation is expected
through this week.


.REST OF TONIGHT...

Sky/weather.........Mostly clear (5-15 percent).
Chance of pcpn......0 percent.
LAL.................No Tstms.
Temperature.........41 at request...Min 29.
RH..................57 percent at request...Max 92 percent.
Wind (20 ft)........Winds west at 5 mph at request...otherwise West
                    winds around 5 mph early in the evening
                    becoming light.
Eye level winds.....west 2 mph becoming southwest 2 mph overnight
                    using a 0.3 adjustment factor.
Haines Index........N/A.
Mixing height.......N/A.
Transport winds.....N/A.
Smoke dispersal.....N/A.

.MONDAY...

Sky/weather.........Mostly sunny (25-35 percent).
Chance of pcpn......10 percent.
LAL.................No Tstms.
Temperature.........Max 59.
RH..................Min 24 percent.
Wind (20 ft)........Southwest wind near 5 mph early in the morning
                    becoming west 10 to 14 mph with gusts to 24 mph
                    from late morning until early afternoon,
                    then shifting to the northwest 13 to 15 mph
                    with gusts to around 25 mph during mid and late
                    afternoon.
Eye level winds.....Southwest wind near 2 mph early in the morning
                    becoming west 3 to 5 mph from late morning until
                    early afternoon, then shifting to the northwest 4
                    to 6 mph during mid and late afternoon using 0.3
                    adjustment factor.
Haines Index........4 or low potential for large plume dominated
                    fire growth.
Mixing height.......2000 ft AGL at max heating.
Transport winds.....West around 31 mph.
Smoke dispersal.....Fair (8610 m/s-m) at max heating.

.MONDAY NIGHT...

Sky/weather.........Mostly cloudy (65-75 percent).
Chance of pcpn......10 percent.
LAL.................No Tstms.
Temperature.........Min 26.
RH..................Max 79 percent.
Wind (20 ft)........Northwest winds 6 to 9 mph.
Eye level winds.....Northwest winds 2 to 3 mph using a 0.3 adjustment factor.
Haines Index........N/A.
Mixing height.......N/A.
Transport winds.....N/A.
Smoke dispersal.....N/A.

.TUESDAY...

Sky/weather.........Sunny (10-20 percent).
Chance of pcpn......0 percent.
LAL.................No Tstms.
Temperature.........Max 37.
RH..................Min 33 percent.
Wind (20 ft)........Northwest winds 6 to 7 mph.
Eye level winds.....Northwest winds 2 to 3 mph using a 0.3 adjustment factor.
Haines Index........4 or low potential for large plume dominated
                    fire growth.
Mixing height.......2800 ft AGL at max heating.
Transport winds.....Northwest around 22 mph.
Smoke dispersal.....Fair (8280 m/s-m) at max heating.

$$
Forecaster...Glass
Requested by...Eric Wiersma
Type of request...WILDFIRE
.TAG 1719793.0/LSX



USA.gov is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.