Suppression Forecast
Issued by NWS Little Rock, AR

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FNUS74 KLZK 271359
FWSLZK

Spot Forecast for P Hill Horsehead Rec Area Admin...USFS
National Weather Service Little Rock AR
759 AM CST Mon Feb 27 2017

Forecast is based on ignition time of 1100 CST on February 27.
If conditions become unrepresentative...contact the National Weather
Service Immediately.

.DISCUSSION...Most likely a lull in rainfall will be seen today, with only
sparse precipitation expected across the state after showers in
southern Arkansas dissipate during the mid morning hours. However
the next 48 hours will see an uptick in rainfall chances as a cold
front and widespread thunderstorms move through the state tomorrow
afternoon/evening through the early morning hours on Wednesday.
Dry conditions will return by midday Wednesday and last through
the first part of the weekend at least.

.TODAY...

Temperature.........54 at ignition...Max 63.
RH..................80 percent at ignition...Min 67 percent.
Chance of pcpn......20 percent.
Transport winds.....Southeast 0 to 8 mph shifting to the south 10
                    to 15 mph in the afternoon.
Stability class.....C.
20 Foot Winds.......Winds east at 5 mph at ignition...otherwise
                    Southeast winds 5 to 7 mph.
LVORI...............1 early in the morning.
Sky/weather.........Partly sunny (55-65 percent). Slight chance of
                    rain showers.
Dispersion..........5 increasing to 17 late in the morning, then
                    increasing to 28 in the afternoon decreasing to
                    19 late in the afternoon.
Haines Index........2 or very low potential for large plume
                    dominated fire growth at ignition...max 3.
Eye level winds.....Southeast winds 5 to 7 mph.
Mixing height (AGL).Becoming 3100 ft AGL.
Mixing height (MSL).Becoming 3823 ft MSL.

TIME (CST)      11A 12P 1PM 2PM 3PM 4PM 5PM
Sky cover.......MC  MC  MC  MC  MC  MC  MC
Weather cov.....SCH SCH SCH SCH SCH SCH SCH
Weather type....RW  RW  RW  RW  RW  RW  RW
Tstm cov........
Temp............54  58  60  62  63  63  63
RH..............80  75  72  67  67  67  70
20 FT wind dir..E   SE  SE  SE  SE  SE  SE
20 FT wind spd..6   7   7   7   7   7   7
20 FT wind gust.10  10  10  10  10  10  10
Eye lvl wnd dir.E   SE  SE  SE  SE  SE  SE
Eye lvl wnd spd.3   4   4   4   4   4   4
Eye lvl wnd gst.10  10  10  10  10  10  10
Transp wind dir.SE  SE  SE  SE  SE  S   S
Transp wind spd.8   10  13  14  15  15  14
Chc of pcpn (%).20  20  20  20  20  20  20

.TONIGHT...

Temperature.........Min 56.
RH..................Max 100 percent.
Chance of pcpn......30 percent.
Transport winds.....Southwest 13 to 21 mph.
Stability class.....E.
20 Foot Winds.......Southeast winds 5 to 6 mph. Gusty and erratic
                    winds expected near thunderstorms.
LVORI...............1.
Sky/weather.........Mostly cloudy (80-90 percent). Slight chance of
                    showers and thunderstorms in the evening, then
                    chance of showers and thunderstorms after
                    midnight.
Dispersion..........9 early in the evening.
Haines Index........2 to 4 or very low potential for large plume
                    dominated fire growth to or low potential for
                    large plume dominated fire growth.
Eye level winds.....Southeast winds 5 to 6 mph.
Mixing height (AGL).Becoming 1200 ft AGL.
Mixing height (MSL).Becoming 1891 ft MSL.

TIME (CST)      6PM 7PM 8PM 9PM 10P 11P MID 1AM 2AM 3AM 4AM 5AM
Sky cover.......MC  MC  MC  MC  MC  MC  MC  MC  MC  MC  MC  MC
Weather cov.....SCH SCH SCH SCH SCH SCH CHC CHC CHC CHC CHC CHC
Weather type....RW  RW  RW  RW  RW  RW  RW  RW  RW  RW  RW  RW
Tstm cov........SCH SCH SCH SCH SCH SCH CHC CHC CHC CHC CHC CHC
Temp............62  60  60  59  59  58  58  57  57  57  57  56
RH..............75  81  84  87  90  93  96  100 100 100 100 100
20 FT wind dir..SE  SE  SE  SE  SE  SE  S   S   S   S   S   S
20 FT wind spd..6   6   6   6   6   6   5   5   5   5   5   5
20 FT wind gust.10  10  10  10  10  10  10  10  10  10  10  10
Eye lvl wnd dir.SE  SE  SE  SE  SE  SE  S   S   S   S   S   S
Eye lvl wnd spd.4   4   4   4   4   4   4   4   4   4   4   4
Eye lvl wnd gst.10  10  10  10  10  10  10  10  10  10  10  10
Transp wind dir.S   S   S   SW  SW  SW  SW  SW  SW  SW  SW  SW
Transp wind spd.14  16  20  21  18  15  13  13  14  16  17  18
Chc of pcpn (%).20  20  20  20  20  20  30  30  30  30  30  30

.TUESDAY...

Temperature.........Max 72.
RH..................Min 71 percent.
Chance of pcpn......50 percent.
Transport winds.....Southwest 20 to 29 mph.
Stability class.....C.
20 Foot Winds.......South winds 6 to 9 mph. Gusty and erratic winds
                    expected near thunderstorms.
LVORI...............1 early in the morning.
Sky/weather.........Mostly cloudy (80-90 percent). Slight chance of
                    showers and thunderstorms in the morning, then
                    chance of showers and thunderstorms in the
                    afternoon.
Dispersion..........21 increasing to 33 early in the morning, then
                    increasing to 41 in the late morning and
                    afternoon decreasing to 31 late in the
                    afternoon.
Haines Index........3 to 4 or very low potential for large plume
                    dominated fire growth to or low potential for
                    large plume dominated fire growth.
Eye level winds.....South winds 6 to 9 mph.
Mixing height (AGL).Becoming 2800 ft AGL.
Mixing height (MSL).Becoming 3546 ft MSL.

TIME (CST)      6AM 7AM 8AM 9AM 10A 11A 12P 1PM 2PM 3PM 4PM 5PM
Sky cover.......MC  MC  MC  MC  MC  MC  MC  MC  MC  MC  MC  MC
Weather cov.....SCH SCH SCH SCH SCH SCH CHC CHC CHC CHC CHC CHC
Weather type....RW  RW  RW  RW  RW  RW  RW  RW  RW  RW  RW  RW
Tstm cov........SCH SCH SCH SCH SCH SCH CHC CHC CHC CHC CHC CHC
Temp............56  56  57  60  63  66  68  70  71  72  72  71
RH..............100 100 100 100 93  87  81  76  73  71  71  73
20 FT wind dir..S   S   S   S   S   S   S   S   S   S   S   S
20 FT wind spd..7   7   7   7   7   7   9   9   9   9   9   9
20 FT wind gust.15  15  15  15  15  15  15  15  15  15  15  15
Eye lvl wnd dir.S   S   S   S   S   S   S   S   S   S   S   S
Eye lvl wnd spd.4   4   4   4   4   4   5   5   5   5   5   5
Eye lvl wnd gst.15  15  15  15  15  15  15  15  15  15  15  15
Transp wind dir.SW  SW  SW  SW  SW  SW  SW  SW  SW  SW  SW  SW
Transp wind spd.20  21  22  23  24  24  25  25  26  26  28  29
Chc of pcpn (%).20  20  20  20  20  20  50  50  50  50  50  50

$$
Forecaster...55
Requested by...Cory Highfill
Type of request...PRESCRIBED
.TAG 1702989.0/LZK
.EMAIL chighfill@fs.fed.us



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