Suppression Forecast
Issued by NWS Newport/Morehead, NC

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000
FNUS72 KMHX 221543
FWSMHX

Spot Forecast for Corbett Lane Fire...USFS
National Weather Service Newport/Morehead City NC
1143 AM EDT Mon May 22 2017

Forecast is based on request time of 2100 EDT on May 22.
If conditions become unrepresentative, or if you have questions
or concerns about this forecast, contact the National Weather
Service in Newport at (252)223-2328.

.DISCUSSION...
A period of unsettled weather is expected Monday through
Thursday as several low pressure areas move through the region.
High pressure will build in from the west Friday and Saturday.

Scattered showers and thunderstorms will develop this
afternoon, though expect bulk of precipitation to remain west of
Newport. Better chances for widespread rain tonight through Wednesday.

.TODAY...

Sky/weather.........Mostly cloudy. A chance of showers and thunderstorms.
Max temperature.....Around 83.
Min humidity........60 percent.
Wind (20 ft)........Southwest winds 10 to 15 mph with gusts up to
                    25 mph. Gusty and erratic winds expected near
                    thunderstorms.
Mixing height.......Max 4000 ft agl.
Transport winds.....Southwest 15 to 20 mph.
Vent Rate...........Max 76000 mph-ft.
LVORI...............Max 10.
ADI.................Max 50.
Haines index........5 or moderate potential for large plume
                    dominated fire growth.
Sfc pressure........29.97 to 30.07 inHg.

TIME (EDT)         6AM 7AM 8AM 9AM 10A 11A 12P 1PM 2PM 3PM 4PM 5PM
Sky (%)............83  82  81  79  79  78  77  76  76  76  76  77
Weather cov........SCH CHC CHC CHC CHC CHC CHC CHC CHC CHC CHC CHC
Weather type.......RW  RW  RW  RW  RW  RW  RW  RW  RW  RW  RW  RW
Tstm cov...........    SCH SCH SCH SCH SCH SCH SCH CHC CHC CHC CHC
Temp...............67  70  71  78  78  79  79  80  81  83  84  83
RH.................100 97  93  79  79  74  74  69  67  63  61  63
20 FT wind dir.....S   S   S   SW  SW  SW  SW  SW  S   S   S   S
20 FT wind spd.....4   4   5   6   6   10  12  12  11  11  11  10
20 FT wind gust....5   5               20  20  20  20  20  20  15
Mix hgt (kft)......0.3 0.3 0.3 1.5 2.7 3.9 4.3 4.7 5.2 4.9 4.7 4.4
Transp wind dir....S   S   S   S   SW  SW  SW  SW  S   S   S   S
Transp wind spd....1   2   3   6   8   10  12  12  13  15  16  17
LVORI..............10  8   6   4   3   3   3   3   1   1   1   1
ADI................1   2   4   9   18  28  33  36  39  44  48  50
Haines index.......3   3   3   4   5   5   5   4   3   3   3   3
VRate mph-ft/1000..0   0   1   8   22  40  49  57  66  71  76  76
Stability class....D   D   D   E   E   E   B   B   C   C   C   C

.TONIGHT...

Sky/weather.........Mostly cloudy. A chance of showers until early
                    morning. A chance of thunderstorms. Showers
                    likely after midnight.
Min temperature.....Around 70.
Max humidity........95 percent.
Wind (20 ft)........South winds 5 to 10 mph. Gusty and erratic
                    winds expected near thunderstorms.
Mixing height.......Min 300 ft agl.
Transport winds.....Southwest 15 to 20 mph.
Vent Rate...........Min 3794 mph-ft.
LVORI...............Max 5.
ADI.................Min 13.
Haines index........3 or very low potential for large plume
                    dominated fire growth.
Sfc pressure........29.89 to 29.97 inHg.

TIME (EDT)         6PM 7PM 8PM 9PM 10P 11P MID 1AM 2AM 3AM 4AM 5AM
Sky (%)............78  80  82  83  85  87  88  90  91  92  93  94
Weather cov........CHC CHC CHC CHC CHC CHC CHC CHC LKY LKY LKY LKY
Weather type.......RW  RW  RW  RW  RW  RW  RW  RW  RW  RW  RW  RW
Tstm cov...........CHC CHC CHC CHC CHC CHC CHC CHC CHC CHC CHC CHC
Temp...............81  79  76  76  75  74  73  73  72  72  71  71
RH.................67  72  79  79  82  84  87  87  90  90  93  93
20 FT wind dir.....S   S   S   S   SW  SW  SW  SW  SW  S   S   S
20 FT wind spd.....10  9   9   9   8   8   8   7   7   7   7   7
20 FT wind gust....15  15  15  10  10  10  10  10  10  10  10  10
Mix hgt (kft)......3.9 3.4 2.8 2.5 2.1 1.8 1.3 0.8 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.3
Transp wind dir....S   SW  SW  SW  SW  SW  SW  SW  SW  SW  SW  SW
Transp wind spd....17  16  15  15  15  15  15  15  15  15  15  15
LVORI..............1   3   3   3   3   4   4   4   5   5   5   5
ADI................46  21  20  20  20  17  13  13  13  13  13  13
Haines index.......3   3   3   3   3   3   3   3   3   3   3   3
VRate mph-ft/1000..66  53  42  37  32  27  19  12  4   4   4   4
Stability class....C   C   C   C   C   C   D   D   D   D   D   D

.TUESDAY...

Sky/weather.........Cloudy. Showers and a chance of thunderstorms.
Max temperature.....Around 79.
Min humidity........70 percent.
Wind (20 ft)........Southwest winds 10 to 15 mph, increasing to 15 to
                    20 mph. Gusty and erratic winds expected near
                    thunderstorms.
Mixing height.......Max 3500 ft agl.
Transport winds.....Southwest 15 to 25 mph, increasing to 20 to 30
                    mph.
Vent Rate...........Max 145475 mph-ft.
LVORI...............Max 5.
ADI.................Max 101.
Haines index........3 or very low potential for large plume
                    dominated fire growth.
Sfc pressure........29.73 to 29.89 inHg.

TIME (EDT)         6 AM   8 AM   10 AM  NOON   2 PM   4 PM
Sky (%)............95     96     95     94     91     91
Weather cov........LIKELY DEFNTE DEFNTE DEFNTE DEFNTE DEFNTE
Weather type.......RNSHWR RNSHWR RNSHWR RNSHWR RNSHWR RNSHWR
Tstm cov...........CHANCE CHANCE CHANCE CHANCE CHANCE CHANCE
Temp...............71     73     75     77     77     77
RH.................93     87     84     79     76     79
20 ft wind.........S 7    S 8    S 9    S 10   S 11   SW 12
20 ft wind gust....10     10     15     20     20     20
Mix hgt (ft).......600    1400   2600   3300   3800   3900
Transport wind.....SW 15  SW 17  S 23   S 29   SW 33  SW 37
LVORI..............5      4      4      3      3      3
ADI................14     28     51     74     90     101
Haines index.......3      3      3      3      3      3
VRate mph-ft/1000..10     25     59     97     125    144
Stability class....D      D      D      C      C      C

$$
Forecaster...Dail
Requested by...davidnelson
Type of request...WILDFIRE
.TAG 1709781.2/MHX
.EMAIL Davidnelson@fs.fed.us


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