Suppression Forecast
Issued by NWS Melbourne, FL

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Spot Forecast for JDSP Firefest 2017 Burn Demonstration...Florida Park Service
National Weather Service Melbourne FL
445 AM EDT Sat Oct 21 2017

Forecast is based on ignition time of 0900 EDT on October 21.
If conditions become unrepresentative...contact the National Weather
Service.

.DISCUSSION...Low-level winds will remain elevated out of the east today,
leading to very high dispersion values by late this morning. There is a
chance of a brief shower at the burn site, mainly this afternoon as deeper
moisture begins to build over the area. Continued onshore flow will mitigate
temperature and relative humidity concerns.

.TODAY...

Sky/weather.........Partly sunny (60-70 percent). Isolated showers in the
                    morning. Scattered showers in the afternoon.
Chance of pcpn......30 percent.
LAL.................No Tstms.
Max temperature.....Around 86.
Min humidity........65 percent.
Wind (20 ft)........East winds 12 to 16 mph.
Mixing height.......2000-3300 ft AGL.
Transport winds.....East 24 to 26 mph.
Dispersion index....Increasing to 65 by late this morning.
LVORI...............1.

TIME (EDT)      9AM 10A 11A 12P 1PM 2PM 3PM 4PM 5PM
Sky (%).........66  66  66  66  66  71  71  71  71
Weather cov.....ISO ISO ISO ISO ISO SCT SCT SCT SCT
Weather type....RW  RW  RW  RW  RW  RW  RW  RW  RW
Tstm cov........
Chc of pcpn (%).30  30  30  30  30  30  30  30  30
LAL.............1   1   1   1   1   1   1   1   1
Temp............80  82  82  84  86  85  84  83  82
RH..............74  71  69  66  63  66  68  70  71
20 FT wind dir..E   E   E   E   E   E   E   E   E
20 FT wind spd..15  16  17  17  17  17  17  18  17
20 FT wind gust.    20  25  25  25  25  25  25  25
Mix hgt (kft)...2.4 2.8 3.2 3.2 3.3 3.3 3.1 2.9 2.7
Transp wind dir.E   E   E   E   E   E   E   E   E
Transp wind spd.25  25  26  25  25  24  24  24  25
Dispersion idx..46  56  65  64  64  64  61  62  62
LVORI...........3   3   2   1   1   1   2   2   3

.TONIGHT...

Sky/weather.........Mostly cloudy (70-80 percent). Scattered
                    showers.
Chance of pcpn......40 percent.
LAL.................No Tstms.
Min temperature.....Around 80.
Max humidity........84 percent.
Wind (20 ft)........East winds 13 to 16 mph.
Mixing height.......1900-2600 ft AGL.
Transport winds.....East 22 to 29 mph.
Dispersion index....50 decreasing to 30.
LVORI...............3.

TIME (EDT)      6 PM   8 PM   10 PM  MIDNGT 2 AM   4 AM
Sky (%).........71     67     67     67     78     78
Weather cov.....SCTTRD CHANCE CHANCE CHANCE CHANCE CHANCE
Weather type....RNSHWR RNSHWR RNSHWR RNSHWR RNSHWR RNSHWR
Tstm cov........
Chc of pcpn (%).30     40     40     40     40     40
LAL.............1      1      1      1      1      1
Temp............81     80     80     80     80     80
RH..............74     77     76     77     80     81
20 ft wind......E 16   E 17   E 16   E 16   E 15   E 14
20 ft wind gust.20     25     20     20            15
Mix hgt (ft)....2600   2300   2100   1900   1900   1900
Transport wind..E 25   E 28   E 29   E 28   E 25   E 23
Dispersion idx..63     44     34     31     29     26
LVORI...........3      3      3      3      3      3

.SUNDAY...

Sky/weather.........Partly sunny (60-70 percent). Chance of
                    showers.
Chance of pcpn......40 percent.
LAL.................No Tstms.
Max temperature.....Around 87.
Min humidity........65 percent.
Wind (20 ft)........Southeast winds 10 to 15 mph.
Mixing height.......1700-3300 ft AGL.
Transport winds.....Southeast 16 to 23 mph.
Dispersion index....Increasing to 60.
LVORI...............1.

TIME (EDT)      6 AM   8 AM   10 AM  NOON   2 PM   4 PM
Sky (%).........78     56     56     56     55     55
Weather cov.....CHANCE CHANCE CHANCE CHANCE CHANCE CHANCE
Weather type....RNSHWR RNSHWR RNSHWR RNSHWR RNSHWR RNSHWR
Tstm cov........
Chc of pcpn (%).40     30     30     30     30     30
LAL.............1      1      1      1      1      1
Temp............80     80     83     84     85     84
RH..............84     79     72     70     65     67
20 ft wind......E 13   E 12   SE 14  SE 16  SE 16  SE 13
20 ft wind gust.15     15     20     20     20     15
Mix hgt (ft)....2000   1700   2700   3200   3300   3100
Transport wind..E 22   E 23   SE 23  SE 21  SE 18  SE 16
Dispersion idx..25     37     55     60     43     38
LVORI...........4      3      3      1      1      1

$$
Forecaster...Ulrich
Requested by...Rob Rossmanith
Type of request...PRESCRIBED
.TAG 1717629.0/MLB
.EMAIL robin.rossmanith@dep.state.fl.us



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