Suppression Forecast
Issued by NWS

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000
FNUS71 KPBZ 191338
FWSPBZ

SPOT FORECAST FOR BUZZARD SWAMP...ALLEGHENY NATIONAL FOREST
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
938 AM EDT SAT APR 19 2014

FORECAST IS BASED ON IGNITION TIME OF 1130 EDT ON APRIL 19.
IF CONDITIONS BECOME UNREPRESENTATIVE...CONTACT THE NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE.

.DISCUSSION...
DRY CONDITIONS EXPECTED TODAY AND THROUGH THE WEEKEND AT THE BURN SITE
WITH RELATIVELY LIGHT WINDS OUT OF THE NORTH TODAY...BECOMING SOUTHEAST
BY SUNDAY. THE ONLY CONCERN IS MUCH DRIER AIR MOVING IN TO THE LOWER/MID
LEVELS WILL PUSH THE HAINES INDEX UP TO 5 BY EARLY THIS AFTERNOON...FROM
A VALUE OF 4 CALCULATED FROM THIS MORNINGS WEATHER BALLOON LAUNCH.
ALSO...THIS AIR WILL MIX DOWN TO THE SURFACE AND RESULT IN RH VALUES
DROPPING DOWN INTO THE LOWER TWENTIES.


.TODAY...

SKY/WEATHER.........SUNNY (10-20 PERCENT).
TEMPERATURE.........50 AT IGNITION...MAX 61.
RH..................MIN 21 PERCENT.
WIND (20 FT)........WINDS NORTH BETWEEN 6 TO 8 MPH IN THE LATE MORNING
                    AND AFTERNOON.
CHANCE OF PCPN......0 PERCENT.
LAL.................1.
HAINES INDEX........4 AT IGNITITION...BECOMING 5 BY EARLY AFTERNOON
    MODERATE POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME
                    DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH THIS AFTERNOON...MAX 5.
MIXING HEIGHT.......600-1800 FT AGL...INCREASING TO 4700-4900 FT
                    AGL.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....NORTHEAST 9 TO 15 MPH.

TIME (EDT)          11A 12P 1PM 2PM 3PM 4PM 5PM
SKY (%).............1   1   1   1   1   1   1
WEATHER COV.........
WEATHER TYPE........
TSTM COV............
TEMP................47  50  54  56  59  60  58
RH..................37  31  27  23  22  22  23
20 FT WIND DIR......N   N   N   N   N   N   N
20 FT WIND SPD......6   6   6   5   6   6   6
20 FT WIND GUST.....15  15  15  10  15  15  15
MIX HGT (KFT).......3.4 4.0 4.4 4.7 4.9 4.9 4.8
TRANSP WIND DIR.....N   N   NE  NE  NE  NE  NE
TRANSP WIND SPD.....15  15  13  12  10  10  10
CHC OF PCPN (%).....0   0   0   0   0   0   0
LAL.................1   1   1   1   1   1   1
HAINES INDEX........4   4   5   5   5   5   5

.TONIGHT...

SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY CLEAR (5-15 PERCENT).
TEMPERATURE.........MIN 33.
RH..................MAX 68 PERCENT.
WIND (20 FT)........NORTHEAST WINDS 5 TO 7 MPH IN THE
                    EVENING...BECOMING LIGHT AND VARIABLE.
CHANCE OF PCPN......0 PERCENT.
LAL.................1.
HAINES INDEX........5.
MIXING HEIGHT.......3100-4400 FT AGL...DECREASING TO 300-2200 FT
                    AGL IN THE LATE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....EAST 8 TO 14 MPH.

TIME (EDT)          6PM 7PM 8PM 9PM 10P 11P MID 1AM 2AM 3AM 4AM 5AM
SKY (%).............1   1   3   5   7   10  12  14  16  15  14  12
WEATHER COV.........
WEATHER TYPE........
TSTM COV............
TEMP................57  54  50  48  45  43  41  39  37  35  34  34
RH..................23  26  30  34  39  44  49  54  59  62  64  64
20 FT WIND DIR......N   NE  NE  NE  NE  E   E   E   E   E   E   E
20 FT WIND SPD......6   5   5   4   4   3   3   3   3   3   3   2
20 FT WIND GUST.....15  10  10  10  5   5   5   5   5   5   5   5
MIX HGT (KFT).......4.4 3.8 3.1 2.2 1.2 0.5 0.3 0.4 0.4 0.4 0.3 0.3
TRANSP WIND DIR.....NE  NE  NE  NE  E   E   E   E   E   E   E   E
TRANSP WIND SPD.....12  12  13  13  13  13  14  14  14  12  9   8
CHC OF PCPN (%).....0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0
LAL.................1   1   1   1   1   1   1   1   1   1   1   1
HAINES INDEX........5   5   5   5   5   4   4   4   4   4   4   4

.SUNDAY...

SKY/WEATHER.........SUNNY (10-20 PERCENT).
TEMPERATURE.........MAX 67.
RH..................MIN 19 PERCENT.
WIND (20 FT)........LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS...BECOMING SOUTH 5 TO
                    7 MPH IN THE LATE MORNING AND AFTERNOON.
CHANCE OF PCPN......0 PERCENT.
LAL.................1.
HAINES INDEX........5 MODERATE POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME DOMINATED
    FIRE GROWTH.
MIXING HEIGHT.......300-2000 FT AGL...INCREASING TO 2700-3900 FT
                    AGL LATE IN THE MORNING.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....SOUTH 9 TO 14 MPH.

TIME (EDT)          6AM 7AM 8AM 9AM 10A 11A 12P 1PM 2PM 3PM 4PM 5PM
SKY (%).............11  10  11  12  13  14  15  17  18  19  19  20
WEATHER COV.........
WEATHER TYPE........
TSTM COV............
TEMP................34  35  37  42  47  53  57  61  63  65  66  66
RH..................67  66  62  50  39  31  27  24  22  21  20  20
20 FT WIND DIR......E   E   E   E   SE  SE  SE  SE  SE  SE  S   S
20 FT WIND SPD......2   3   3   4   5   6   6   5   5   5   6   6
20 FT WIND GUST.....5   5   5   10  10  15  15  10  10  10  15  15
MIX HGT (KFT).......0.3 0.4 0.7 1.3 2.0 2.7 3.1 3.4 3.6 3.8 3.9 3.9
TRANSP WIND DIR.....E   SE  SE  SE  S   S   S   S   S   S   S   S
TRANSP WIND SPD.....9   12  13  13  12  12  12  13  13  13  14  14
CHC OF PCPN (%).....0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0
LAL.................1   1   1   1   1   1   1   1   1   1   1   1
HAINES INDEX........4   4   4   4   4   4   4   4   5   5   5   5

$$
FORECASTER...MPK
REQUESTED BY...CRAIG KOSTRZEWSKI
TYPE OF REQUEST...PRESCRIBED
.TAG 20140419.BUZZA.01/PBZ






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