Suppression Forecast
Issued by NWS Pueblo, CO

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000
FNUS75 KPUB 271149
FWSPUB

Spot Forecast for 12 MILE...USFS
National Weather Service PUEBLO CO
549 AM MDT Mon Mar 27 2017

Forecast is based on ignition time of 0900 MDT on March 27.
If conditions become unrepresentative...contact the National Weather
Service.

Please contact our office at (719) 948-9429, if you have questions
or concerns with this forecast.

.DISCUSSION...

Transient upper level ridging across the region this morning
gives way to increasing southwest flow aloft later this afternoon
and tonight, as an embedded weather disturbances moves across the
state ahead of a stronger system digging into the Four Corners
region overnight. Will see increasing clouds across the burn site
through the afternoon, with increasing chances of generally light
precipitation through the overnight hours.

The second stronger system is projected to move across Northern
New Mexico Tuesday and continue into the Southern High Plains
through the day Wednesday. The projected movement of the system
looks to bring significant precipitation to the Southeast Mountains
and Plains Tuesday and Wednesday. Preliminary estimates of 6 to 14
inches of heavy wet snow will be possible across the burn site from
Tuesday afternoon through the day Wednesday.

A brief break in precipitation is expected Thursday, before another
weather system could bring another round of significant precipitation
to the area Friday and Saturday.

.REST OF TODAY...

Sky/weather.........Mostly sunny(30 PERCENT) until 1700, then
                    mostly cloudy. Isolated showers after 1600.
LAL.................1.
Max temperature.....47-52F.
Min humidity........35-40 percent.
Wind (20 ft)........Light and variable wind up to 6 mph until 1100,
                    then south to southwest 6 to 12 mph.
Mixing height.......6500 ft agl.
Transport winds.....Southwest around 16 mph.
Smoke dispersal.....Poor until 1000. good after 1400.
Haines Index........3 or very low potential for large plume
                    dominated fire growth.

.TONIGHT...

Sky/weather.........Mostly cloudy. Isolated showers until 2100,
                    then scattered showers.
LAL.................1.
Min temperature.....29-34F.
Max humidity........64-69 percent.
Wind (20 ft)........Southwest winds 9 to 15 mph with gusts to 25 mph.
Mixing height.......5000 ft agl until 2100, then 1500 ft agl.
Transport winds.....Southwest around 15 mph.
Smoke dispersal.....Good until 2100. poor after 0500.
Haines Index........3 or very low potential for large plume
                    dominated fire growth.

.TUESDAY...

Sky/weather.........Partly sunny(70 PERCENT) until 1400, then
                    cloudy. Scattered showers until 1200, then rain
                    and isolated thunderstorms.
LAL.................1 until 1200, then 3.
Max temperature.....42-47F.
Min humidity........38-43 percent.
Wind (20 ft)........West to Northwest winds 5 to 10 mph until 1100,
                    then becoming North to Northeast 8 to 12 mph.
                    Gusty and erratic winds expected near thunderstorms
                    after 1200.
Mixing height.......2000 ft agl until 0800, then 5500 ft agl.
Transport winds.....Southeast around 11 mph.
Smoke dispersal.....Poor until 1100, then good until 1700, then
                    fair.
Haines Index........3 or very low potential for large plume
                    dominated fire growth.


$$
Forecaster...WANKOWSKI
Requested by...ALFONSO MONTOYA
Type of request...PRESCRIBED
.TAG 1705257.0/PUB



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