Suppression Forecast
Issued by NWS Riverton, WY

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FNUS75 KRIW 201631
FWSRIW

Spot Forecast for Pole Creek...USFS BTF
National Weather Service Riverton WY
1031 AM MDT Thu Jul 20 2017

Forecast is based on ignition time of 1100 MDT on July 20.
If conditions become unrepresentative...contact the National Weather
Service.

.DISCUSSION...The combination of monsoonal moisture and a passing
cold front will bring isolated to widely scattered thunderstorms to
the area this afternoon and evening. These thunderstorms have a better
chance of being wet with more moisture in the air although small hail and
erratic and gusty winds are also possible. Relative humidity will
remain above critical levels. Wind should remain light to moderate
outside of any shower or thunderstorm. Mixing and smoke dispersal
will range from good to very good. Dry weather will return for
Friday and Saturday.

...Thunderstorms imply strong gusty and erratic winds...
...Haines index is high level haines both day and night...

FORECASTER...Lipson

.REST OF TODAY...

Sky/weather.........Mostly cloudy (70-80 percent). Isolated thunderstorms in
                    the afternoon by 1400. Scattered thunderstorms by 1600.                 afternoon.
                    Some storms could have small hail, locally heavy rainfall,
                    and gusty winds of up to 35 mph.
Max temperature.....78 to 80..
Min humidity........31-34 percent.
20-foot winds.......Upslope/upvalley 5-9 mph becoming southwest around
                    10 mph by 1200 with some gusts up to 20
                    mph. Gusty and erratic winds expected near
                    thunderstorms in the afternoon.
Ridge top winds.....West 10 to 15 mph.
LAL.................No Tstms until 1200, then 1-8 strikes.
Chc of wetting rain.7 percent.
Haines Index........4 or low potential for large plume dominated
                    fire growth.
Mixing height.......4300 ft AGL until 1200, then 8900 ft AGL.
Transport winds.....West 14 to 16 mph.
Smoke dispersal.....Good increasing to excellent in the afternoon.

.TONIGHT...

Sky/weather.........Partly cloudy (40-50 percent). Scattered rain
                    showers and isolated thunderstorms early in the
                    evening, then isolated showers and a few
                    thunderstorms late in the evening.
Min temperature.....49-52.
Max humidity........68-71 percent.
20-foot winds.......Southwest 4-7 mph, then north 4 to 7 mph after 2000.
                    Gusty and erratic winds expected near thunderstorms in the
                    evening.
Ridge top winds.....Northwest around 10 mph shifting to the
                    northeast in the late evening and overnight.
LAL.................1-8 strikes until 2400, then No Tstms.
Chc of wetting rain.4 percent.
Haines Index........4 or low potential for large plume dominated
                    fire growth.
Mixing height.......4300 ft AGL until 2400, then 500 FT AGL.
Transport winds.....Northwest around 10 mph shifting to the
                    northeast 8 to 10 mph in the late evening and
                    overnight.
Smoke dispersal.....Poor to fair.

.FRIDAY...

Sky/weather.........Mostly sunny (20-30 percent).
Max temperature.....76-79.
Min humidity........18-21 percent.
20-foot winds.......Upslope/upvalley 5-9 mph becoming northwest around
                    13 mph by 1200 with gusts to around 25 mph by 1500.
Ridge top winds.....Northwest 5 to 10 mph increasing to west 15 to
                    20 mph in the afternoon.
LAL.................No Tstms.
Chc of wetting rain.Zero percent.
Haines Index........4 or low potential for large plume dominated
                    fire growth.
Mixing height.......4700 ft AGL until 1200, then 9800 ft AGL.
Transport winds.....Northwest 8 to 17 mph shifting to the west
                    around 22 mph late in the afternoon.
Smoke dispersal.....Good increasing to excellent in the afternoon.

.FORECAST DAYS 3 THROUGH 5...
.FRIDAY NIGHT...
Mostly clear. Lows in the upper 40s. Winds generally less than
10 mph.
.SATURDAY...
Mostly clear. Lows in the upper 40s. Highs in the upper 70s.
Winds generally less than 10 mph.
.SUNDAY...
Mostly clear. Lows in the lower 50s. Highs in the upper 70s.
Winds generally less than 10 mph.
.MONDAY...
Partly cloudy with slight chance of showers and thunderstorms.
Lows in the lower 50s. Highs in the upper 70s. Winds generally
less than 10 mph.

$$
Forecaster...Lipson
Requested by...Palm
Type of request...PRESCRIBED
.TAG 1713005.1/RIW
.EMAIL grte_dispatch@nps.gov



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