Hydrometeorological Discussion
Issued by NWS Ohio RFC

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AGUS71 KTIR 191532
HMDTIR
Ohio River Basin Hydrometeorological Discussion
Ohio River Forecast Center, Wilmington, Ohio
1032 AM EST Sunday, February 19, 2017

...HYDROMETEOROLOGICAL DISCUSSION...
Unseasonably warm conditions will remain in place for the next handful of days
or so as southerly to southwesterly flow influences our weather pattern. Overall
dry conditions remain for today and tomorrow before a weakening front enters the
basin Tuesday morning. Rainfall amounts with the system look minor with most
seeing under a quarter inch. Behind the front brings continued warm and dry
conditions before a more complex system enters for the tail end of the week.
Model inconsistencies lead to some issues with timing, but second half of the
week is a safe bet. Model agreement is present in noting that a cooler, more
seasonable airmass will funnel in behind this system.

..FLOOD POTENTIAL DISCUSSION...

The risk for flooding remains very low for the first half of the week. We will
have to watch the late week system to see how it evolves before determining if
any potential is present.

...24-HR OBSERVED PRECIPITATION USED IN TODAY`S RIVER FORECASTS...
Precipitation in the basin remained on the light side with rain falling mainly
south of the Ohio River. Locations that received rain generally saw less than a
tenth of an inch.  The heaviest locations remained below one half of an inch.

.48-HR FORECAST PRECIPITATION USED IN TODAY`S RIVER FORECASTS...
No precipitation is forecast for the first 36 hours of the period. Hours 36-48
will bring a frontal system from west to east and increase precipitation chances
for everyone.  In this forecast I went on the lighter side of model guidance as
systems in the recent past have been under achieving in comparison to model
simulated rainfall.

...RIVER BASINS IN FLOOD...
None.

Forecast precipitation graphics are available on the OHRFC Website
at the following address:  http://weather.gov/ohrfc/ForecastPrecipitation

$$
Ryan Fliehman




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