Marine Interpretation Message
Issued by NWS

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000
AGXX40 KNHC 251816
MIMATS

MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
216 PM EDT WED MAY 25 2016

MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN
SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND
64W...AND THE SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS.

...GULF OF MEXICO...

MODEL PREFERENCE: PREVIOUS OFFICIAL FORECAST BLENDED WITH THE GFS
AND ECMWF FOR WINDS. PREVIOUS OFFICIAL FORECAST BLENDED WITH A
HEAVILY WEIGHTED MIX OF THE LATEST NWPS AND ECMWF MODELS. HIGH
CONFIDENCE.

A HIGH PRES RIDGE EXTENDS WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD ALONG THE GULF COAST
OF THE UNITED STATES FROM 1024 MB HIGH PRES CENTERED JUST OFF THE
COASTLINE OF THE CAROLINAS NEAR 32N76W. LATEST SCATTEROMETRY
INDICATED MODERATE E TO SE FLOW ACROSS THE GULF.

HIGH PRES OVER THE WESTERN N ATLANTIC WILL GENERALLY MAINTAIN
MODERATE TO FRESH WINDS OVER THE GULF THROUGH SUN NIGHT. MODEL
GUIDANCE HAS BEEN TRENDING A BIT STRONGER IN BRINGING FRESH TO
STRONG WINDS OVER THE NW GULF THU NIGHT AND FRI. A SIMILAR TREND
IN THE MODELS WAS NOTED CONCERNING SURFACE TROUGHS FORMING OVER
THE YUCATAN PENINSULA. FRESH TO STRONG WINDS ARE EXPECTED OVER THE
EASTERN BAY OF CAMPECHE TONIGHT AND THU NIGHT.

...CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN
55W AND 64W...

MODEL PREFERENCE: PREVIOUS OFFICIAL FORECAST BLENDED WITH THE GFS
AND ECMWF FOR WINDS. PREVIOUS OFFICIAL FORECAST BLENDED WITH A
HEAVILY WEIGHTED MIX OF THE LATEST NWPS AND ECMWF MODELS. HIGH
CONFIDENCE.

1150Z OBSERVATION FROM BUOY 41041 WAS 7.9 FT. SEVERAL ALTIMETRY
PASSES OVER THE TROPICAL N ATLANTIC SHOWED SEA HEIGHTS BETWEEN 8
AND 9 FT FROM 15N TO 25N TO THE E OF 50W. AT 1150Z BUOY 42058 IN
THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN INDICATED 21 KT WINDS AND 10 FT SIGNIFICANT
WAVE HEIGHTS. 1445Z ASCAT IMAGERY SHOWED 20 TO 25 KT WINDS ALONG
THE COLOMBIAN AND VENEZUELAN COASTS NORTHWARD TO 17N. ADDED
NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS TO THE WEATHER GRIDS
FOR THE CARIBBEAN SEA N OF COLOMBIA TO INITIALIZE AN MCS MOVING
SOUTHWARD TOWARD THE COLOMBIAN COAST.

TROPICAL WAVES WERE ANALYZED AT 12Z WITH WAVE AXES NEAR 77W AND
62W. HOWEVER...THERE WERE NO SIGNIFICANT WINDS OR WAVES
ASSOCIATED WITH THESE FEATURES. ANOTHER TROPICAL WAVE WAS PRESENT
NEAR 38W.

PRES GRADIENT OVER THE REGION WILL BEGIN TO DECREASE ON THU AS
HIGH PRES TO THE N IS WEAKENED BY SYNOPTIC LOW PRES MOVING
EASTWARD FROM N AMERICA. MODERATE TRADES WILL PREVAIL FRI THROUGH
SUN NIGHT.

...SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS...

MODEL PREFERENCE: PREVIOUS OFFICIAL FORECAST BLENDED WITH THE GFS
AND ECMWF FOR WINDS. PREVIOUS OFFICIAL FORECAST BLENDED WITH A
HEAVILY WEIGHTED MIX OF THE LATEST NWPS AND ECMWF MODELS. MODERATE
TO HIGH CONFIDENCE.

ADDED NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS TO THE WEATHER
GRIDS TO INITIALIZE AN MCS OVER THE STRAITS OF FLORIDA.

AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH HAS BEEN DIGGING ALONG 80W. CONVECTION E OF
THE TROUGH AXIS HAS INDUCED SURFACE TROUGHING FROM THE
SOUTHEASTERN BAHAMAS TO NEAR 31N66W. SURFACE LOW PRES APPEARS TO
HAVE DEVELOPED WITHIN THE TROUGH NEAR 26N68W. ALL THE MODELS ARE
CONSISTENT IN MOVING THE TROUGH AND ATTENDANT LOW NW TOWARD THE
SOUTHEASTERN UNITED STATES WHILE SLOWING THEM DOWN THROUGH SAT
NIGHT. LATEST FORECAST UPDATE CARRIES FRESH TO STRONG WINDS IN THE
VICINITY OF THE LOW TO THE NE OF THE BAHAMAS ON FRI AND SAT.
CURRENT FORECAST KEEPS THE BAHAMAS TO THE SW OF THE SURFACE
LOW... WHERE THE PRES GRADIENT IS WEAK...THROUGH SUN NIGHT.

A SPECIAL TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK ISSUED AT 1215Z GAVE LOW
TROPICAL OR SUBTROPICAL CYCLONE DEVELOPMENT CHANCES FOR THIS
SYSTEM THROUGH 48 HOURS AND MEDIUM DEVELOPMENT CHANCES FOR THIS
SYSTEM THROUGH 5 DAYS.

$$

.WARNINGS...ANY CHANGES IMPACTING COASTAL NWS OFFICES WILL BE
COORDINATED THROUGH AWIPS II COLLABORATION CHAT OR BY TELEPHONE:

.GULF OF MEXICO...
     NONE.

.CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN
55W AND 64W...
     NONE.

.SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS...
     NONE.

$$

*FOR DETAILED ZONE DESCRIPTIONS PLEASE VISIT:
HTTP://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/ABOUTTAFBPROD.SHTML#OWF

NOTE: GRIDDED MARINE FORECASTS ARE AVAILABLE IN THE
NATIONAL DIGITAL FORECAST DATABASE (NDFD) AT:
HTTP://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/MARINE/GRIDS.PHP

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT:
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANE WARNINGS.GOV/MARINE

$$

.FORECASTER MCELROY. NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER.



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