Marine Interpretation Message
Issued by NWS

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526
AGXX40 KNHC 291715
MIMATS

MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
115 PM EDT FRI JUL 29 2016

MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN
SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND
64W...AND THE SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS.

...GULF OF MEXICO...

MODEL PREFERENCE: GLOBAL MODEL CONSENSUS. MEDIUM CONFIDENCE.

A THERMAL TROUGH WILL DEVELOP OVER THE YUCATAN PENINSULA DURING
THE LATE AFTERNOONS AND CONTINUE INTO THE EARLY EVENINGS. EXPECT
FRESH TO LOCALLY STRONG NE-E WINDS TO DEVELOP ALONG THE NW COAST
OF THE WESTERN YUCATAN PENINSULA THROUGH TUE EVENING...WITH
THESE CONDITIONS BEGINNING IN THE LATE AFTERNOONS...AND ENDING
BEFORE MIDNIGHT EACH NIGHT AS THE INVERTED TROUGH CONTINUES W-NW
ACROSS THE SW GULF WATERS...ACCOMPANIED BY A ENE-SE 15-20 KT
WIND SHIFT...AND 4-5 FT SEAS. THE TROUGH WILL LOSE IDENTITY NEAR
22N94W BY LATE MORNING. THE STRONGEST EVENT IS EXPECTED ON SAT
EVENING WITH STRONG NE-E WINDS AND SEAS BUILDING TO 7 FT.

OTHERWISE...A SURFACE HIGH WILL DEVELOP INTERMITTENTLY OVER THE
NE GULF WATERS THROUGH THE PERIOD ALONG A RIDGE THAT EXTENDS E
TO W ACROSS THE NORTHERN GULF WATERS. EXPECT MODERATE E-SE
RETURN FLOW AROUND THE PERIPHERY OF THE RIDGE ACROSS MAINLY THE
W-CENTRAL GULF. MODERATE NE-E FLOW WILL DEVELOP ACROSS THE FL
STRAITS DURING THE LATE AFTERNOONS INTO EARLY EVENINGS. LIGHT TO
GENTLE ANTICYCLONIC FLOW EXPECTED ELSEWHERE AROUND HIGH AND
ASSOCIATED RIDGE.

...CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN
55W AND 64W...

MODEL PREFERENCE: GLOBAL MODEL CONSENSUS. MEDIUM-HIGH CONFIDENCE.

A TROPICAL WAVE WILL CONTINUE W ACROSS THE YUCATAN PENINSULA
TODAY ACCOMPANIED BY CONSIDERABLE CONVECTION E OF THE WAVE
ACROSS THE GULF OF HONDURAS. A BROAD TROPICAL WAVE IS CURRENTLY
PASSING THROUGH THE TROPICAL WATERS E OF THE WINDWARDS WITH
LITTLE ENHANCEMENT OF CONVECTION OR WIND AND WAVES. THIS WAVE
WILL BE DROPPED FROM THE SURFACE ANALYSIS. A THIRD TROPICAL WAVE
CURRENTLY ALONG 45W IS ACCOMPANIED BY LARGE CLUSTERS OF
CONVECTION FROM 10-16N. THIS WAVE WILL REACH ALONG 55W LATE
TONIGHT WITH STRONG NE-E WINDS SPREADING W ACROSS THE TROPICAL
WATERS N OF 15N E OF THE LEEWARDS ON SAT...AND SHIFTING WNW
ACROSS THE NE CARIBBEAN ISLANDS ON SUN. FRESH TO LOCALLY STRONG
E-SE WINDS ARE LIKELY ACROSS THE SOUTHERN BAHAMAS...AND ALONG
THE N COAST OF CUBA BEGINNING LATE THIS WEEKEND AND CONTINUING
INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.

A TROPICAL LOW IS ANALYZED NEAR 12N23W ALONG A FOURTH TROPICAL
WAVE IN THE E ATLC. THE LOW HAS A GOOD CHANGE OF BECOMING A
TROPICAL CYCLONE...BUT SHOULD REMAIN E OF 55W THROUGH THE
PERIOD.

THE STRONG GRADIENT BETWEEN ATLC HIGH PRESSURE...AND PERSISTENT
LOWER PRESSURE OVER NW COLOMBIA...WILL MAINTAIN A LARGE AREA OF
PULSING STRONG TRADES ACROSS THE S-CENTRAL CARIBBEAN...WITH AN
EMBEDDED SWATH OF NEAR GALE FORCE NE-E WINDS DEVELOPING WITHIN
ABOUT 90 NM OF THE NW COAST OF COLOMBIA TONIGHT. COMBINED SEAS
WILL BUILD TO A MAX OF 11 FT DOWNSTREAM OF THE NEAR-GALE FORCE
AREA NEAR 11.5N75.5W.

STRONG E WINDS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP BRIEFLY LATE TONIGHT ACROSS
THE GULF OF HONDURAS.

...SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS...

MODEL PREFERENCE: GLOBAL MODEL CONSENSUS. MEDIUM-HIGH CONFIDENCE.

A SURFACE HIGH IS CENTERED NEAR THE NW BAHAMAS AND A RIDGE
EXTENDS W INTO THE AREA FROM 29N55W TO 25N71W. AN UPPER CYCLONE
NEAR 22N67W HAS AN ASSOCIATED WEAK 1016 MB SURFACE LOW IN
BETWEEN THE SURFACE ANTICYCLONIC FLOW AT 27N69W. THIS SURFACE
LOW IS EXPECTED TO RAPIDLY FILL AND DISSIPATE TONIGHT...WITH THE
ATLC RIDGE EXTENDING FROM 30N55W TO FT PIERCE FL ON SAT. THE
GRADIENT S OF THIS RIDGE WILL TIGHTEN AS A TROPICAL WAVE MOVES W
ACROSS THE WATERS S OF 22N WITH FRESH-STRONG E WINDS BEGINNING
TONIGHT S OF 21N E OF 58W. THESE CONDITIONS WILL SHIFT W-NW
ACROSS THE WATERS S OF 24N BETWEEN 63-75W BY LATE IN THE
UPCOMING WEEKEND.

FRESH E-SE FLOW EXPECTED ACROSS THE SOUTHERN BAHAMAS EARLY NEXT
WEEK...EXCEPT INCREASING TO STRONG FLOW ALONG THE N COAST OF
HISPANIOLA DURING THE LATE AFTERNOONS INTO EARLY EVENING HOURS.

$$

.WARNINGS...ANY CHANGES IMPACTING COASTAL NWS OFFICES WILL BE
COORDINATED THROUGH AWIPS II COLLABORATION CHAT OR BY TELEPHONE:

.GULF OF MEXICO...
     NONE.

.CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN
55W AND 64W...
     NONE.

.SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS...
     NONE.

$$

*FOR DETAILED ZONE DESCRIPTIONS PLEASE VISIT:
HTTP://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/ABOUTTAFBPROD.SHTML#OWF

NOTE: GRIDDED MARINE FORECASTS ARE AVAILABLE IN THE
NATIONAL DIGITAL FORECAST DATABASE (NDFD) AT:
HTTP://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/MARINE/GRIDS.PHP

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT:
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANE WARNINGS.GOV/MARINE

$$

.FORECASTER NELSON. NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER.



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