Marine Interpretation Message
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000
AGXX40 KNHC 171858
MIMATS

Marine Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
258 PM EDT Tue Oct 17 2017

Marine Weather Discussion for the Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea,
and Tropical North Atlantic from 07N to 19N between 55W and 64W
and the Southwest North Atlantic including the Bahamas

...GULF OF MEXICO...

A cold front has stalled from near Sarasota arching SW and then S
to central Bay of Campeche. Coastal obs along lower Mexican coast
are either missing or not representative of recent ASCAT pass
showing NNW winds 30-40 kt persisting off of Veracruz but with
wind max area having shifted SSE and shrunken a bit past 12
hours. Models suggest seas should be 10-15 ft in this area and
possibly slightly higher max, but no recent altimeter passes.
Front is expected to drift SE next 24 hours and then meander and
gradually lose identity Wed through Thu. Strong NW flow will
then continue through Wed evening. Fresh to locally strong E
winds are expected across the northern Gulf waters Wed through
Fri as high pres shifts E along 35N and passes due N of area.
Broad and weak troffing expected to persist across SW Gulf
through Fri.

...CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN
55W AND 64W...

A tropical wave currently along 80W-81W is kicking off a large
cluster of convection offshore of Panama and Costa Rica and will
shift inland late today through tonight. Weak and broad low
pressure extends from this region NNE across Bahamas to pre
frontal trough across SW N Atlc waters leaving light pres
gradient W of 72W. Sharp upper trough across Atlc along about 70W
is drawing tropical wave moisture NW across the NE Caribbean and
its devastated islands, where SE llvl flow associated with a
pair of tropical waves will move across the region next 36-48
hours. Strong surface ridge centered across E central Atlc
extends WSW to near 60W and will build W with and behind these 2
waves next 2 days to freshen winds. Wind swell associated with
these waves producing large zone of 7-9 ft seas currently between
Lesser Antilles and 60W and will increase slightly next 2 days as
high pres builds in behind waves and trades freshen to 20-25 kt.

...SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS...

A broad surface trough is between 68W and 72W and extends SSW to
offshore of central Bahamas. Recent ASCAT passes showed Sly winds
20-25+ kt winds E of trough, increasing to 25-30 kt N of 30N.
Seas across this area 7-11 ft, highest along 31N of course, with
winds and seas shifting NNE and weakening next 36-48 hours.

A cold front has shifted slowly SE and now from 31N72W to central
FL just S of the Cape. Strong NE winds 20-25 kt N of front with
fetch extending well NE and offshore of Hatteras had generated a
broad area of 8-12 ft seas behind front with peak seas 13-14 ft
per altimeter data from prior to 12Z. The front will continue to
shift slowly SE next few days and gradually merge or nearly merge
with trough from near Bermuda to 28N72W. Winds will veer ever so
slowly and diminish through late Wed as high shifting E across US
begins to move off E coast, with seas subsiding accordingly.

$$

.WARNINGS...Any changes impacting coastal NWS offices will be
coordinated through AWIPS II Collaboration Chat, or by
telephone:

.GULF OF MEXICO...
.GMZ023...SW GULF S OF 22N W OF 94W...
     Gale Warning today into tonight.

.CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN
55W AND 64W...
     None.

.SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS...
     None.

$$

*For detailed zone descriptions, please visit:
http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/abouttafbprod.shtml#OWF

Note: gridded marine forecasts are available in the National
Digital Forecast Database (NDFD) at:
http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/marine/grids.php

For additional information, please visit:
http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/marine

$$

.Forecaster Stripling. National Hurricane Center.


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