Marine Interpretation Message
Issued by NWS

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000
AGXX40 KNHC 220700
MIMATS

MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
300 AM EDT TUE JUL 22 2014

MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN
SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND
64W...AND THE SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS.

...GULF OF MEXICO...

MODEL PREFERENCE: GFS BLENDED WITH OFFICIAL. MWW3 AND TAFB NWPS
BLENDED WITH OFFICIAL. HIGH CONFIDENCE.

A TRANQUIL PERIOD CONTINUES IN THE GULF OF MEXICO WITH WINDS
EXPECTED TO REMAIN BELOW THE 20-25 KT THRESHOLD THROUGH SAT NIGHT
UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF A PERSISTENT RIDGE IN THE VICINITY OF 27N.
THE MODELS HAVE BACKED OFF ON THE CHANCE OF WINDS REACHING THE
20-25 KT THRESHOLD NEAR THE YUCATAN DURING THE OVERNIGHT AND IN
THE BAY OF CAMPECHE IN THE EARLY MORNING HOURS AS THE THERMALLY
DRIVEN TROUGHING MIGRATING W FROM THE YUCATAN EACH NIGHT BUILDS
THE PRESSURE GRADIENT. MODEL DIFFERENCES HERE ARE RELATIVELY
MINOR. THE GFS SOLUTION SEEMS REASONABLE FOR ADJUSTING THE
FORECAST.

...CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 22N BETWEEN
55W AND 65W...

MODEL PREFERENCE: GFS BLENDED WITH OFFICIAL. MWW3 AND TAFB NWPS
BLENDED WITH OFFICIAL. MEDIUM CONFIDENCE.

THE 03Z OFFICIAL FORECAST FOR TROPICAL DEPRESSION TWO CARRIES A
30 KT DEPRESSION INTO THE NE CARIBBEAN BY THU EVENING. NONE OF THE
MODELS ARE THIS STRONG. THE 00Z ECMWF OPENS THE SYSTEM INTO A WAVE
LATER TODAY AND THE 00Z GFS DOES SO BEFORE IT REACHES THE OFFSHORE
FORECAST AREA. THE GFS IS A STRONGER SOLUTION AND MORE IN LINE
WITH THE OFFICIAL FORECAST TRACK. IT WAS USED TO ADJUST THE GRIDS
WITH HEAVY EDITING DONE TO BOTH THE WINDS AND WAVES TO MATCH THE
OFFICIAL FORECAST.

IN THE CARIBBEAN...LITTLE CHANGE IS EXPECTED IN THE DAY-TO-DAY
FORECAST THROUGH SAT NIGHT. STRONG TO NEAR GALE FORCE WINDS WILL
CONTINUE ALONG THE NE COAST OF COLOMBIA...WITH THE GFS SHOWING GALE
FORCE WINDS EARLY WED. THE GFS HAS BEEN HINTING AT GALES EARLY
WED FOR THE LAST TWO DAYS...BUT THIS LATEST RUN IS MORE BULLISH.
THE ECMWF IS NOT AS STRONG...BUT HAS INCREASED ITS AREA OF 30 KT
WINDS. THE STRONGER GFS USUALLY PANS OUT BETTER THAN THE ECMWF
HERE.

WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO PULSE TO A FRESH BREEZE IN THE
EVENING/OVERNIGHT HOURS IN THE GULF OF HONDURAS THROUGH
FRI...INCREASING TO A FRESH TO STRONG BREEZE THIS EVENING AHEAD
OF A TROPICAL WAVE. THE GFS IS THE STRONGEST SOLUTION. THE
STRONGER GFS GENERALLY DOES BEST WITH THE LOCAL DIURNAL DRIVEN
WINDS IN THE CARIBBEAN...BOTH HERE AND OVER S CENTRAL WATERS. GFS
AND NWPS/MWW3 WERE USED TO ADJUST THE FORECAST IN THE CARIBBEAN.

...SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS...

MODEL PREFERENCE: GFS BLENDED WITH OFFICIAL. MWW3 AND TAFB NWPS
BLENDED WITH OFFICIAL. MEDIUM CONFIDENCE.

THE ONLY CHANCE OF WINDS EXCEEDING THE 20-25 KT THRESHOLD OVER
THE SW N ATLC THROUGH THU WILL COME IN THE EVENING HOURS ALONG
THE N COAST OF HISPANIOLA. THE 0154 UTC AND 0240 UTC ASCAT PASSES
SHOW A FRESH TO STRONG BREEZE IN PLACE ALONG THE N COAST OF HAITI.
THE ECMWF IS THE BEST INITIALIZED MODEL...SHOWING STRONGER MAX
WINDS AND A BROADER SWATH OF FRESH WINDS IN THE ATLC EASTERN
APPROACH TO THE WINDWARD PASSAGE BEHIND A TROPICAL WAVE TO THE SW.
BEYOND THIS MORNING...THE GFS CARRIES A STRONGER SOLUTION IN THE
EVENINGS N OF HISPANIOLA THAN THE ECMWF. THIS STRONGER SOLUTION
HAS BEEN PANNING OUT BETTER UNDER A SIMILAR SYNOPTIC PATTERN THE
PAST SEVERAL DAYS.

THE INFLUENCE OF THE REMAINS OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION TWO WILL ADD
TO THE UNCERTAINTY BEYOND THU. THE GENERAL TREND IN THE MODELS
HAS BEEN TOWARD A MORE SOUTHERLY TRACK...MINIMIZING THE INFLUENCE
ON THE FORECAST IN THE SW N ATLC. THE GFS TRACK IS CLOSER TO THE
OFFICIAL FORECAST THAN THE MORE SOUTHERLY MODEL CONSENSUS.
OVERALL...THE GFS SEEMS REASONABLE. IT SHOWS THE REMAINS OF
TROPICAL DEPRESSION TWO HAVING LITTLE INFLUENCE ON THE FORECAST.
IT WAS USED TO ADJUST THE FORECAST.

$$

.WARNINGS...ANY CHANGES IMPACTING COASTAL NWS OFFICES WILL BE
COORDINATED THROUGH AWIPS 12 PLANET CHAT OR BY TELEPHONE:

.GULF OF MEXICO...
     NONE.

.CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN
55W AND 64W...
.AMZ031...CARIBBEAN FROM 11N TO 15N BETWEEN 72W AND 80W INCLUDING COLOMBIA BASIN...
     GALE WARNING TONIGHT INTO WED.

.SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS...
     NONE.

$$

*FOR DETAILED ZONE DESCRIPTIONS PLEASE VISIT:
HTTP://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/ABOUTTAFBPROD.SHTML#OWF

NOTE: GRIDDED MARINE FORECASTS ARE AVAILABLE IN THE
NATIONAL DIGITAL FORECAST DATABASE (NDFD) AT:
HTTP://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/MARINE/GRIDS.PHP

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT:
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANE WARNINGS.GOV/MARINE

$$

.FORECASTER SCHAUER. NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER.


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