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000
AGXX40 KNHC 270841
MIMATS

Marine Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
441 AM EDT Tue Jun 27 2017

Marine Weather Discussion for the Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea,
and Tropical North Atlantic from 07N to 19N between 55W and 64W
and the Southwest North Atlantic including the Bahamas

...GULF OF MEXICO...

A weak stationary front continues across the NE Gulf coastal
waters from the FL Big Bend to coastal SE LA. Expect the boundary
to drift S across the FL coastal waters through late afternoon or
evening before dissipating. Elsewhere light to gentle E to SE
winds prevail across most of the basin except far SW portions
where inverted troffing is developing along the Mexican coast and
yielding moderate S to SE winds between far SE TX and Veracruz.
Slight seas prevail at 1-3 ft with possible isolated areas to 4
ft W portions.

Only slight changes in conditions expected next 24 hours as
inverted troffing persists along the Mexican coast and coastal
waters. A frontal system moving into the Great Plains will
combine with high pres moving to the Ern seaboard to produce
moderate to fresh return flow across most of the basin on Wed
and then gradually strengthen to fresh to locally strong Thu
night into Fri as the frontal system moves SE into the TX
Panhandle. Seas to increase to 4-6 ft during this time, with
Yucatan diurnal thermal trough yielding strong winds across N and
NW peninsula waters, with potential to increase seas briefly to
7 ft. Somewhat similar conditions to continue into the weekend as
a weak high settles into the far NE Gulf and the frontal
boundary retreats nwd into the Central Plains.

...CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN
55W AND 64W...

Modest Atlc ridge continues from central Atlc to NW Bahamas and
yielding modest pres gradient across the basin this morning. Mid
summer pattern appears entrenched attm with series of tropical
waves moving W through the basin separated by SAL and fair
weather in between. A tropical wave is entering the W Carib along
76-77W with best moisture behind the wave and flaring up with
sct cnvtn S of Windward Passage to about 16N, and fresh SE winds
and seas 7-8 ft N of 16N and just behind wave axis. Next broad
wave is approaching Tropical N Atlc waters attm, and has a
secondary perturbation trailing in invof 49W. Active cnvtn is
expected to accompany this wave generally S of 13N as it move W
through basin next few days. Broad area of SAL and some zones of
significant dust will moving into Carib ahead and across the top
of this wave next 36 hours. ENE winds around 20 kt to accompany
this wave with E to SE winds around 15 kt behind it. An area of
7-9 ft seas also depicted by recent altimeter passes within the
fresh ENE winds and will shift W and hit the islands tonight
through Wed. Slight SE shift of Atlc ridge by tonight expected to
produce sufficient increase in pres gradient across basin to
yield peak nocturnal winds near 30 kt off of Colombia tonight and
Wed night before gradient weakens as second tropical wave moves
across central portions and expands fresh to strong winds across
N central portions. Atlc ridge to nose back into FL and NE Gulf
of Mexico by weeks end and behind this second wave to bring
return to strong trades across much of S central Carib Fri-Sat.

..SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS...

Atlc ridge extends from 1025 mb high near 34N47W to NW Bahamas
and central FL, while weak frontal boundary has stalled across
extreme NW corner of FA. This is yielding moderate to fresh E
trades S of 23N E of 70W and moderate SE winds W of there around
the periphery of the ridge, becoming light to moderate S to SW
off NE FL coast. Seas are 4-5 ft and locally 6 ft across the SE
waters in zone of trades and 2-3 ft elsewhere. The frontal
boundary will meander through today then shift E and drag along
about 29-30N Wed before lifting N of area Wed night-Thu. This
will maintain these generally mild winds and seas across the
waters through the end of the week. As the ridge noses wwd Thu-
Fri, the diurnal thermals along the N coastal zone of Hispaniola
will expand to 22N with seas pushing 8 ft there during the
evenings.

Expect SAL and hazy conditions to shift W into SE waters today
through Wed ahead of tropical wave approaching Windward Islands.

$$

.WARNINGS...Any changes impacting coastal NWS offices will be
coordinated through AWIPS II Collaboration Chat, or by
telephone:

.GULF OF MEXICO...
     None.

.CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN
55W AND 64W...
     None.

.SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS...
     None.

$$

*For detailed zone descriptions, please visit:
http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/abouttafbprod.shtml#OWF

Note: gridded marine forecasts are available in the National
Digital Forecast Database (NDFD) at:
http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/marine/grids.php

For additional information, please visit:
http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/marine

$$

.Forecaster Stripling. National Hurricane Center.


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