Marine Interpretation Message
Issued by NWS

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000
AGXX40 KNHC 050825
MIMATS

MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
425 AM EDT THU MAY 5 2016

MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN
SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND
64W...AND THE SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS.

...GULF OF MEXICO...

MODEL PREFERENCE: GLOBAL MODEL CONSENSUS

COLD FRONT SHIFTING SLOWLY SE OUT OF AREA THIS MORNING...CURRENTLY
EXTENDING FROM STRAITS JUST SE OF THE KEYS TO YUCATAN PENINSULA
ALMOST TO CANCUN CONTINUING SW TO COASTAL SECTIONS OF SE BAY OF
CAMPECHE. I THINK OUR SFC MAPS HAVE HAD THE FRONT A BIT TOO FAR SE
FOR ITS ENTIRE PASSAGE ACROSS THE GULFWITH 06Z POSITION MUCH
CLOSER TO TRUE LOCATION. FRESH NWLY FLOW PREVAILS ACROSS NE
PORTIONS GENERALLY E OF 87W PER OBS AND RECENT 03Z ASCAT PASSES...
WHERE SEAS ARE RUNNING 6-7 FT. ELSEWHERE...1017 MB HIGH HAS
SHIFTED INTO NW PORTIONS AND OFFSHORE OF SE TEXAS WITH
ANTICYCLONIC FLOW TO DOMINATE NEXT FEW DAYS. THE HIGH WILL SHIFT
E INTO NE GULF SAT NIGHT THROUGH SUN...ALLOWING MODERATE TO FRESH
RETURN FLOW TO DEVELOP W OF 90W. HIGH TO THEN SHIFT ENE ACROSS
FLORIDA PENINSULA MON-TUE WITH RETURN FLOW INCREASING AND
SPREADING ACROSS ENTIRE BASIN. MODELS IN GOOD AGREEMENT.

...CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN
55W AND 64W...

MODEL PREFERENCE: GLOBAL MODEL CONSENSUS

ATLC RIDGE CENTERED ON 1029 MB HIGH IN CENTRAL GULF EXTENDING SW
TO SE BAHAMAS ATTM BUT WEAKENING IN INFLUENCE AS COLD FRONT IS NOT
MOVING ACROSS YUCATAN CHANNEL. PRE FRONTAL TROUGH TO THE SE OF
FRONT IS FOCUS FOR CLUSTERS OF DEEP CNVTN ACROSS NW PORTIONS...AND
SHIFTING E-SE S OF CUBA...AND TOWARDS THE SE ACROSS GULF OF
HONDURAS. INDUCED TROUGH WILL DEVELOP TODAY FROM COLOMBIA NW
TOWARD JAMAICA...RESULTING IN SE FLOW E OF TROUGH AND N TO NW FLOW
W OF TROUGH AND FRONT. MODEST ZONE OF 20 KT SE TRADES ACROSS SE
PORTIONS E OF 70W TO PERSIST THROUGH SAT WHERE SEAS WILL REMAIN
5-6 FT. FRONT TO CONTINUE MOVING SE AND REACH FROM E CENTRAL CUBA
TO NW GULF OF HONDURAS THIS EVENING...FROM FAR ERN CUBA TO CENTRAL
NICARAGUA FRI EVENING...FROM NW HAITI TO COSTA RICA-PANAMA BORDER
SAT EVENING...THEN STALL AND WEAKEN FROM CENTRAL HISPANIOLA TO WRN
PANAMA SUN. MODELS IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH MAINLY 15-20 KT NLY FLOW
BUILDING BEHIND FRONT ACROSS W PORTIONS WITH SEAS BUILDING 5-6 FT
IN NLY WINDSEA. WINDS TO INCREASE ALONG COASTAL WATERS OF
NICARAGUA TO 20-25 KT BEHIND FRONT BRIEFLY FRI AND FRI NIGHT WITH
SEAS BUILDING 3-5 FT ACROSS THESE SEMI PROTECTED WATERS. RIDGE
ACROSS THE GULFMEX TO SHIFT E INTO SW N ATLC AND BAHAMAS SAT NIGHT
AND SUN AND CAUSE WINDS TO BEGIN TO VEER MORE TO TYPICAL ELY FLOW
REGIME ACROSS THE BASIN SUN AND MON. INCREASED PRES GRADIENT
BEHIND DYING FRONTAL ZONE ACROSS HISPANIOLA WILL PRODUCE STRONG
NE WINDS THROUGH WINDWARD PASSAGE AND IN LEE OF CUBA SUN AND MON.

...SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS...

MODEL PREFERENCE: GLOBAL MODEL CONSENSUS

SLOW-MOVING LATE-SEASON COLD FRONT EXTENDS ACROSS FLORIDA COASTAL
WATERS SSW TO JUST OFFSHORE OF MIAMI AND THE FL KEYS AND THROUGH
THE STRAITS ATTM. ENERGETIC TROUGH ACROSS THE GULF AND SE U.S. AND
DIGGING DEEP LAYERED LOW INDUCING WIDESPREAD CNVTN ALONG AND E OF
FRONT THAT WILL CONTINUE THROUGH FRI NIGHT AS FRONT SHIFTS E-SE.
SWLY WINDS 20-25 KT SUGGESTED BY MODELS AND OBS AHEAD OF FRONT
FROM BAHAMAS TO 29-30N...WHILE NW WINDS AROUND 20 KT WITH GUSTS IN
MID 20S BUILDING ACROSS FL COASTAL WATERS BEHIND FRONT FROM KEYS
TO JAX AREA. GLOBAL MODELS HAVE CONTINUE TO SUGGEST AREA OF GALES
TO DEVELOP SHORTLY ALONG PRE FRONTAL TROUGH OR SQUALL LINE E OF
FRONT AND NE OF BAHAMAS...AND SHIFT NNE AND OUT OF AREA BY LATE
THIS AFTERNOON. LLVL CYCLONE LOOKS TO BE FORMING ALONG FRONT
INVOF 30N ATTM AND WILL ENHANCE NW WINDS TO NEAR 25 KT NW WATERS
TODAY WHERE SEAS WILL BUILD TO 7-9 FT ALONG AND JUST N OF 31N.
SEAS AHEAD OF FRONT IN STRONG TO GALE FORCE SW WINDS WILL BUILD
QUICKLY TO 9-11 FT THIS MORNING AND TO 10-13 FT NE WATERS BY MID
AFTERNOON. FRONT TO REACH 31N71W TO E CENTRAL CUBA BY THIS EVENING
THEN TO 31N66W TO E COAST OF CUBA BY FRI EVENING...SLOW FORWARD
PROGRESS AND REACH 27N65W TO NW HAITI SAT EVENING THEN STALL
ACROSS CENTRAL HISPANIOLA SUN AS UPPER LOW AND SUPPORT LIFTS OUT
TO THE N ACROSS THE NW ATLC. SECONDARY SURGE AND FRONTAL TROUGH TO
SWEEP THROUGH THE AREA BEHIND TRUE FRONT WITH A TERTIARY TROUGH
ACROSS NW PORTIONS. NO SIGNIFICANT FETCH EVER DEVELOPS BEHIND
FRONT AND SEAS TO REMAIN 5-7 FT N PORTIONS AFTER TONIGHT THEN 4-5
FT THROUGH THE WEEKEND AS RIDGE BUILDS ESE FROM GULF INTO SW N
ATLC THEN SHIFTS E.

$$

.WARNINGS...ANY CHANGES IMPACTING COASTAL NWS OFFICES WILL BE
COORDINATED THROUGH AWIPS II COLLABORATION CHAT OR BY TELEPHONE:

.GULF OF MEXICO...
     NONE.

.CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN
55W AND 64W...
     NONE.

.SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS...
.AMZ113...ATLANTIC FROM 27N TO 31N BETWEEN 70W AND 77W...
     GALE WARNING EARLY TODAY INTO TODAY.

$$

*FOR DETAILED ZONE DESCRIPTIONS PLEASE VISIT:
HTTP://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/ABOUTTAFBPROD.SHTML#OWF

NOTE: GRIDDED MARINE FORECASTS ARE AVAILABLE IN THE
NATIONAL DIGITAL FORECAST DATABASE (NDFD) AT:
HTTP://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/MARINE/GRIDS.PHP

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT:
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANE WARNINGS.GOV/MARINE

$$

.FORECASTER STRIPLING. NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER.



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