Prognostic Meteorological Discussion
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FXCA20 KWBC 082000
PMDCA

TROPICAL DISCUSSION - INTERNATIONAL DESKS
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
300 PM EST MON FEB 08 2016

TROPICAL DISCUSSION FROM FEBRUARY 08/12 UTC: LARGE SCALE PATTERN
OVER THE NEXT THREE-FOUR WILL BE CHARACTERIZED BY BROAD POLAR
TROUGH OVER THE USA/GULF OF MEXICO AND MID-UPPER RIDGE TO ITS
SOUTH WEST. THE MID-UPPER RIDGE IS TO DOMINATE MOST OF SOUTHERN
CENTRAL AMERICA AND THE CARIBBEAN BASIN. MOST REMARKABLE ACTIVITY
WILL CONCENTRATE ALONG THE FRONT AND SHEAR LINE...ESPECIALLY WHERE
THESE SYSTEMS INTERACT WITH LOCAL OROGRAPHIC FEATURES. LARGEST
AMOUNTS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS COSTA RICA/WESTERN PANAMA AND NORTHERN
HISPANIOLA...ESPECIALLY ON TUESDAY AND ON.

FRONT IS MEANDERING ACROSS SE BAHAMAS/WINDWARD PASSAGE INTO THE
GULF OF HONDURAS. AS THE ASSOCIATED UPPER TROUGH HAS EXISTED INTO
THE NORTH ATLANTIC...THIS FRONT IS WEAKENING VERY SLOWLY AS IT
MEANDERS BACK TO THE NORTH WEST. BY MONDAY EVENING THE STRONG WILL
EXTEND ACROSS THE WINDWARD PASSAGE-NW JAMAICA...S BELIZE. BY
TUESDAY EVENING THE FRONT WILL EXTEND INTO SE CUBA...WITH TAIL
WEAKENING JUST TO THE SOUTH OF THE CAYMAN ISLANDS. A FAST
PROGRESSING FRONT IS TO REPLACE THE OLD BOUNDARY. THIS NEW FRONT
WILL EXTEND ACROSS THE CENTRAL GULF OF MEXICO INTO TAMAULIPAS BY
MONDAY MORNING...ACROSS NW BAHAMAS/NW CUBA INTO N YUCATAN BY
TUESDAY EVENING. BY WEDNESDAY EVENING...IT WILL EXTEND ACROSS SE
CUBA/NW JAMAICA INTO NE NICARAGUA. SHEAR LINE WILL MEANDER FROM
HISPANIOLA TO THE SOUTHWEST INTO EASTERN COSTA RICA/WESTERN PANAMA
THROUGH THE CYCLE. EXPECTING AN INCREASE IN WIND SPEEDS ALONG
EASTERN CENTRAL AMERICA/WESTERN CARIBBEAN INTO TUESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY TO SPEEDS ABOVE 25KT AT 850HPA. PRECIPITABLE WATER OFF
THE COASTS OF PANAMA AND COSTA RICA WILL BE APPROACHING 50MM AND
INCREASING. THIS WILL SUSTAIN A FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT FOR HEAVY
PRECIPITATION AS STRONG MOIST WINDS INTERACT WITH OROGRAPHY.
EXPECTING ACCUMULATIONS OF 10-15MM/DAY AND MAXIMA OF 20-40MM
INCREASING TO 15-20MM/DAY AND MAXIMA OF 30-60MM/DAY ON TUESDAY INT
WEDNESDAY. AMOUNTS ARE TO PEAK DURING WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY
WHERE EXPECTING MAXIMA OF 40-80MM/DAY. NOTE THAT ISOLATED LARGER
AMOUNTS ARE POSSIBLE DUE TO LOCALIZED OROGRAPHIC EFFECTS.

SHEAR LINE ACTIVITY WILL ALSO LEAD TO SCATTERED SHOWERS IN
JAMAICA...ESPECIALLY ALONG THE NORTHERN COASTS. EXPECTING MAXIMA
IN THE ORDER OF 15-20MM/DAY...PEAKING ON TUESDAY INTO EARLY
WEDNESDAY WHEN EXPECTING MAXIMA OF 15-30MM/DAY. ACROSS NORTHERN
HISPANIOLA SHEAR LINE CONVECTION WILL ALSO PRODUCE SEVERAL ROUNDS
OF PRECIPITATION. INITIALLY EXPECTING MAXIMA OF 15MM INCREASING TO
15-20MM/DAY ON TUESDAY. A NOTICEABLE INCREASE IS EXPECTED ON
WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY...AS NORTHEASTERLY TRADES PICK UP TO
SPEEDS OVER 15KT IN NORTHERN/NORTHEASTERN PARTS OF THE ISLAND.

ELSEWHERE...ACTIVE CONVECTION WILL DOMINATE THE GUIANAS UN
INTERACTION WITH THE BASE OF AN UPPER TROUGH THAT EXTENDS OVER THE
TROPICAL ATLANTIC. EXPECTING LARGEST AMOUNTS IN COASTAL FRENCH
GUIANA WHERE MOISTURE AVAILABILITY IS PLENTIFUL AND LOW-LEVEL
CONVERGENCE IS BEING ENHANCED BY THE ITCZ. EXPECTING MAXIMA IN THE
ORDER OF 20-30MM/DAY THROUGH EARLY WEDNESDAY. AMOUNTS ARE TO
DECREASE AFTERWARDS. ALSO...EXPECTING AN ACTIVATION OF DIURNAL
CONVECTION IN COLOMBIA. EXPECTING MAXIMA IN THE ORDER OF
15-20MM/DAY BY TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY.

TROPICAL/EASTERLY WAVES INITIALIZED AT 12UTC.
INITIAL    24    36    48    60    72    84    96         TYPE
NONE

HUNTE...BMS (BARBADOS)
GALVEZ...WPC (USA)
$$




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