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FXCA20 KWBC 231827
PMDCA

TROPICAL DISCUSSION - INTERNATIONAL DESKS
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
226 PM EDT THU MAY 23 2013

DISCUSSION FROM MAY 23/00UTC: UPPER TROUGH PATTERN WILL DOMINATE
THE BAHAMAS DURING THE CYCLE. CURRENT SHORT WAVE TROUGH WILL
SLOWLY MOVE NORTHEASTWARD WHILE LARGER TROUGH ESTABLISHES BY
MID-LATE CYCLE FROM THE NORTHWEST. AT LOW LEVELS...AN INDUCED
TROUGH WILL REORGANIZE ON DAY 02 ACROSS THE SOUTHEASTERN BAHAMAS
INTO JUST EAST OF JAMAICA. THIS INDUCED TROUGH WILL AMPLIFY AND
MOVE EASTWARD INTO HISPANIOLA ON DAY 03. UPPER AND LOW-LEVEL
TROUGHS WILL ALSO INTERACT WITH DEEP MOISTURE POOL PRESENT ACROSS
THE NORTHERN CARIBBEAN/GREATER ANTILLES INTO JAMAICA. THIS WILL
LEAD TO AN ACTIVE PATTERN OF DEEP CONVECTION...WITH FOCUS SLOWLY
MEANDERING EASTWARD FROM THE CENTRAL/NORTHERN BAHAMAS ON DAY 01 TO
HISPANIOLA AND PUERTO RICO ON DAY 03. THROUGH 36 HRS...EXPECTING
HEAVIEST ACROSS THE NORTHERN BAHAMAS WITH ACCUMULATIONS OF
10-15MM/DAY AND MAXIMA OF 20-35MM WITH THE STRONGEST STORMS. OVER
HISPANIOLA...EXPECTING ALSO ACTIVE DIURNAL CONVECTION TO PRODUCE
15-20MM/DAY AND MAXIMA OF 25-50MM. SIMILAR AMOUNTS ARE EXPECTED IN
JAMAICA. BY 36-60 HRS...EXPECTING STRONGEST ACTIVITY TO CLUSTER
OVER JAMAICA AND HISPANIOLA. OVER JAMAICA...EXPECTING 05-10MM/DAY
AND MAXIMA OF 15-30MM. OVER HISPANIOLA EXPECTING 10-15MM/DAY AND
MAXIMA OF 20-45MM. ON DAY 03...EXPECTING HEAVIEST OVER THE
DOMINICAN REPUBLIC AND PUERTO RICO...WITH ACCUMULATIONS OF
15-20MM/DAY AND ISOLATED MAXIMA OF 35-70MM.

ACROSS MEXICO...SEASONAL CONVECTION IS FINALLY ESTABLISHING OVER
THE EJE VOLCANICO...CENTRAL PLATEAU AND SIERRA MADRE ORIENTAL.
EXPECTING AN INCREASE TOWARDS LATE CYCLE...ESPECIALLY IN
SOUTHERN/CENTRAL MEXICO...IN RESPONSE TO INCREASING
MOISTURE/CONVECTIVE INSTABILITY AND THE DEVELOPMENT OF AN UPPER
TROUGH. EXPECTING DIURNAL CONVECTION TO PRODUCE ACCUMULATIONS OF
05-10MM/DAY AND GENERALIZED MAXIMA OF 15-20MM IN STRONGEST STORMS.
EXPECTING ISOLATED HIGHER AMOUNTS IN INTERACTION WITH OROGRAPHY.

SEASONABLE ACTIVE PATTERN OF CONVECTION ACROSS CENTRAL AMERICA HAS
RAPIDLY ESTABLISHED DURING THE WEEK. A WEAK CAP...DEEPER MOISTURE
POOL AND WEAK EASTERLIES WILL CONTINUE SUSTAINING ACTIVE DIURNAL
STORMS FROM SOUTHERN MEXICO INTO NICARAGUA. CONVECTION IS TO
DEVELOP OVER MOUNTAIN RANGES DURING THE AFTERNOON AND
EXTEND/REDEVELOP INTO AREAS IN THE PACIFIC BASIN/COAST DURING THE
EVENING. FURTHERMORE...ARRIVING TROPICAL WAVE WILL INCREASE
ACCUMULATIONS ACROSS COSTA RICA ON DAY 02...AND
NICARAGUA/HONDURAS/EL SALVADOR ON DAYS 03 AND 04. OVER
GUATEMALA/EL SALVADOR/SOUTHWESTERN HONDURAS...EXPECTING
ACCUMULATIONS OF 10-15MM/DAY AND MAXIMA OF 20-45MM THROUGH 36 HRS.
AMOUNTS ARE TO DECREASE SLIGHTLY AFTERWARDS...TO INCREASE AGAIN ON
DAY 03/04.

ACROSS EASTERN NICARAGUA/NORTHERN COSTA RICA EXPECTING AN INCREASE
ON DAY 01 INTO 02 WITH ARRIVING EASTERLY WAVE. EXPECTING AMOUNTS
OF 15-20MM/DAY AND MAXIMA OF 25-50MM. DEEP MOISTURE AND LOW-LEVEL
SOUTHWESTERLIES WILL ENHANCE ACCUMULATIONS ACROSS WESTERN
PANAMA/THE PACIFIC BASIN OF COSTA RICA AS WELL ON DAY 02.
EXPECTING AMOUNTS TO SURGE TO 15-25MM/DAY AND MAXIMA OF 35-70MM.
ON DAY 03...STRONGEST CONVECTION WILL CLUSTER ALONG COSTA
RICA/EASTERN NICARAGUA/EASTERN HONDURAS IN ASSOCIATION WITH
EASTERLY WAVE AND DEEP MOISTURE POOL. EXPECTING ACCUMULATIONS OF
15-20MM/DAY AND MAXIMA OF 25-50MM. ACTIVE CONVECTION WILL EXTEND
INTO AREAS IN THE GULF OF HONDURAS WITH ACCUMULATIONS OF
10-15MM/DAY AND MAXIMA OF 20-30MM.

OVER NORTHWESTERN SOUTH AMERICA...SEASONALLY ENHANCED CONVECTION
WILL CONTINUE. FOCUS WILL SHIFT FROM NORTHERN COLOMBIA INTO
WESTERN COLOMBIA/ANTIOQUIA/LOWER MAGDALENA. LOW-LEVEL
WEST/SOUTHWESTERLIES WILL DEVELOP ON DAY 01 TO ENHANCE LOW-LEVEL
CONVERGENCE ALONG THE WESTERN COAST. THIS WILL PRODUCE NUMEROUS
THUNDERSTORMS WITH ACCUMULATIONS OF 15-30MM/DAY AND MAXIMA OF
40-80MM. BY 36-84 HRS STRONGEST CONVECTION WILL CONCENTRATE ACROSS
ANTIOQUIA/EJE CAFETERO/LOWER MAGDALENA WITH ACCUMULATIONS OF
10-15MM/DAY AND MAXIMA OF 20-45MM. THE ARRIVAL OF A TROPICAL WAVE
WILL LEAD TO ACTIVE CONVECTION ACROSS EASTERN COLOMBIA INTO THE
EASTERN SLOPES WITH ACCUMULATIONS OF 10-15MM/DAY AND MAXIMA OF
20-40MM.

OVER NORTHEASTERN SOUTH AMERICA...MID-LEVEL RIDGE AND ASSOCIATED
SUBSIDENCE INVERSION ARE DOMINATING. THESE WILL LEAD TO A
TRANSIENT QUIET PATTERN ACROSS THE NORTHERN GUYANA/EASTERN
VENEZUELA EARLY IN THE CYCLE...AND OVER
NORTH-CENTRAL/NORTH-WESTERN VENEZUELA BY DAY 02. TO THE EAST OF
THIS SYSTEM...AN ORGANIZED TROPICAL WAVE WILL TRAIL WESTWARD
BRINGING AN INCREASE IN ACCUMULATIONS. THE WAVE WILL AFFECT FRENCH
GUIANA/SURINAME/AMAPA ON DAY 01...SURINAME/GUYANA/EXTREME EASTERN
VENEZUELA ON DAY 02...AND CENTRAL VENEZUELA ON DAY 03. THROUGH 36
HOURS...EXPECTING AMOUNTS OF 10-15MM/DAY AND MAXIMA OF 20-40MM
OVER SURINAME AND FRENCH GUIANA. BY 36-60 HRS...EXPECTING SIMILAR
AMOUNTS OVER SURINAME/GUYANA. BY 60-84 HRS EXPECTING SIMILAR
VENEZUELA OVER CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN VENEZUELA.

TROPICAL/EASTERLY WAVES INITIALIZED AT 12UTC

INITIAL 24   36   48   60   72   84   TYPE
48W     51W  54W  58W  62W  66W  70W   TW
79W     82W  84W  87W  90W  93W  95W   EW

TROPICAL WAVE ALONG 48W IS TO ENTER FRENCH GUIANA/SURINAME TODAY
LEADING TO ACCUMULATIONS OF 10-15MM/DAY AND MAXIMA OF 20-40MM
THROUGH 36 HRS. BY 36-60 HRS EXPECTING HEAVIEST IN SOUTHEASTERN
VENEZUELA/GUYANA AND SURINAME WITH ACCUMULATIONS OF 10-15MM/DAY
AND MAXIMA OF 20-40MM. BY 60-84 HRS EXPECTING HEAVIEST ACROSS
CENTRAL/WESTERN VENEZUELA WITH ACCUMULATIONS INCREASING TO
10-15MM/DAY AND MAXIMA OF 20-40MM.

AN EASTERLY WAVE ALONG 79W WILL ENHANCE ACCUMULATIONS ACROSS
CENTRAL AMERICA. ACROSS WESTERN PANAMA/COSTA RICA THE WAVE WILL
PRODUCE ACCUMULATIONS OF 15-20MM/DAY AND MAXIMA OF 35-70MM/DAY.
ACROSS HONDURAS/NICARAGUA EXPECTING ACCUMULATIONS OF 15-20MM/DAY
AND MAXIMA OF 25-50MM.

BLENMAN...BMS (BARBADOS)
MCKENZIE...BDM (BAHAMAS)
DAVISON/GALVEZ...WPC (USA)

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