Prognostic Meteorological Discussion
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FXUS02 KWBC 071426
PMDEPD

EXTENDED FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
925 AM EST SUN FEB 07 2016

VALID 12Z WED FEB 10 2016 - 12Z SUN FEB 14 2016


...OVERVIEW AND GUIDANCE PREFERENCES...

AMPLIFIED WESTERN US RIDGE/EASTERN US TROUGH PATTERN WILL BE IN
PLACE THROUGH MID WEEK.  TOWARDS THE END OF THE WEEK...THE WESTERN
RIDGE GRADUALLY SHIFTS INLAND AS THE NEXT UPPER TROUGH APPROACHES
FROM THE NORTHEAST PACIFIC OCEAN. THE TROUGH POSSIBLY MOVES
ONSHORE NEXT WEEKEND...WITH TYPICAL TIMING AND PHASING
DIFFERENCES.  THE TIMING RELATES TO THE 06Z GFS FASTER THAN THE
00Z ECMWF/CANADIAN GLOBAL TIMING.  THE PHASING DIFFERENCE LEADS TO
DIFFERENCES IN HANDLING THE SOUTHWEST US WITH THE 00Z ECMWF QUITE
AMPLIFIED...AND THE GFS TYPICALLY MORE PROGRESSIVE.
CONSEQUENTLY...THE GFS WAS NOT INCLUDED IN THE FORECASTS...WITH A
BLEND OF THE 0Z ECMWF/ECMWF ENSEMBLE MEAN/06Z GEFS MEAN USED FOR
DAYS 3-7 FORECASTS FOR 500 MB HEIGHTS AND ADJUSTED SEA LEVEL
PRESSURES.

IN THE NORTHEAST/COASTAL WATERS...THE PERIOD STARTS WITH A BROAD
AREA OF LOWER HEIGHTS/PRESSURES WITH POSSIBLE MULTI CIRCULATION
CENTERS EMBEDDED THEREIN. AS THE BROAD CIRCULATION DEPARTS...COLD
AIR SPILLS OUT OF CANADA THROUGH THE LAKES AND NORTHEAST.
A SECONDARY FRONT NEXT WEEKEND DRIVES THROUGH THE SOUTHEAST AND FL
ON THE NOSE OF A SURGE OF HIGHER PRESSURE WITH AN ARCTIC HIGH
BUILDING OUT OF SOUTH CENTRAL CANADA TOWARDS THE UPPER GREAT LAKES
NEXT WEEKEND.  THIS WILL DRIVE AN ARCTIC AIR INTRUSION INTO THE
GREAT LAKES/MIDWEST/NORTHEAST NEXT WEEKEND.


...SENSIBLE WEATHER HIGHLIGHTS...

RESIDUAL SNOWS ARE POSSIBLE ON WED IN THE NORTHERN MID ATLANTIC TO
THE NORTHEAST IN THE BROAD CYCL0NIC CIRCULATION.  LAKE-EFFECT
SNOWS ARE EXPECTED FOR SEVERAL DAYS...WITH LOCALLY HEAVY BANDS
EXPECTED.  SCATTERED SHOWERS OCCUR WITH EACH COLD FRONT IN THE
SOUTHEAST BUT NO MAJOR PRECIP EVENTS ARE EXPECTED OUTSIDE THE
GREAT LAKES IN THE EASTERN US.  TEMPERATURES IN THE EAST WILL BE
WELL BELOW AVERAGE IN THE OH/TN VALLEYS AND SOUTHERN
APPALACHIANS/SOUTHEAST/FLORIDA OVER THE LATE WEEK AND WEEKEND AND
THEN FROM THE GREAT LAKES INTO THE NORTHEAST SAT/SUN.

IN THE WEST...THE PRIMARY PRECIP IN THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST WITH THE
APPROACH AND ARRIVAL OF THE UPPER TROUGH NEXT WEEKEND.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE WELL ABOVE AVERAGE IN THE WEST WITH THE
BIGGEST ANOMALIES FORECAST OVER CENTRAL TO WESTERN MT WHERE HIGH
TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST TO BE 15-20 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL WED-FRI
AND 10-15 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL SAT 13 FEB-SUN 14 FEB.

PETERSEN/FRACASSO

$$





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