Prognostic Meteorological Discussion
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000
FXHW01 KWNH 251229
PMDHI

HAWAII EXTENDED FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
828 AM EDT MON JUL 25 2016

VALID 00Z TUE JUL 26 2016 - 00Z TUE AUG 02 2016

TO BEGIN THE WEEK, CLASSIFIED AS A LOW-END TROPICAL STORM, DARBY
WILL CONTINUE MIGRATING NORTHWESTWARD AWAY FROM THE NORTHERN
HAWAI`IAN ISLANDS. RECENT RADAR IMAGERY FROM KAUAI, HI (HKI)
SHOWED A BAND OF SCATTERED SHOWERS MOVING ACROSS OAHU WITH GENERAL
HOURLY RATES OF 0.50 TO 0.75 INCHES IN THE STRONGER CELLS. THESE
SHOULD BECOME LESS NUMEROUS IN TIME AS THE CIRCULATION LIFTS AWAY
FROM THE ISLANDS.

THROUGHOUT THE WORK WEEK, MID-LEVEL HEIGHTS ARE FORECAST TO
GRADUALLY BUILD FROM THE EAST WHICH WILL SUPPORT A RETURN TO THE
EAST-NORTHEASTERLY TRADES WITH SUSTAINED WINDS LIKELY PEAKING IN
THE 15 TO 20 KNOT RANGE. THIS PERIOD ALSO LOOKS ON THE DRIER SIDE
AS LOWER PRECIPITABLE VALUES ADVECT INTO THE REGION. MOVING INTO
THE EARLY PART OF THE UPCOMING WEEKEND, THE REMAINS OF WHAT IS
CURRENTLY HURRICANE GEORGETTE WILL BEGIN TO APPROACH HAWAI`I. THE
NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER`S LATEST FORECAST HAS THIS TROPICAL
CYCLONE WEAKENING TO A TROPICAL DEPRESSION BY FRIDAY NIGHT WITH
MODELS BEYOND SHOWING LITTLE TO NO SURFACE REFLECTION REMAINING.
THE RESIDUAL UPPER TROUGH MAY AFFORD A BRIEF INCREASE IN SHOWER
COVERAGE. OVERALL, EXCEPT FOR THE 00Z CMC SOLUTION WHICH IS SLOWER
TO THE EAST, MODELS EXHIBIT REASONABLE AGREEMENT FOR THE PERIOD.


RUBIN-OSTER


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