Prognostic Meteorological Discussion
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738
FXHW01 KWNH 271216
PMDHI

HAWAII EXTENDED FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
715 AM EST MON FEB 27 2017

VALID 00Z TUE FEB 28 2017 - 00Z TUE MAR 07 2017

ESPECIALLY BY TUESDAY-WEDNESDAY THE PATTERN WILL BECOME
INCREASINGLY FAVORABLE FOR LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL OVER THE STATE.
AN UPPER TROUGH INITIALLY WEST OF THE ISLANDS WILL PROMOTE A FLOW
OF DEEP MOISTURE FROM THE SOUTH.  IN RESPONSE TO THIS TROUGH
CURRENT GUIDANCE SHOWS AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE LIKELY FORMING OVER
THE ISLANDS AROUND WEDNESDAY/WEDNESDAY NIGHT WITH NORTHWARD
PROGRESSION OF THE LOW AND UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT HERALDING A DRYING
TREND FROM THURSDAY INTO THE WEEKEND.  THERE IS REASONABLY GOOD
AGREEMENT IN EVOLUTION AT THE SURFACE AND ALOFT ASIDE FROM LOWER
PREDICTABILITY DETAIL DIFFERENCES.  TOWARD SUNDAY-MONDAY THE
NORTHWESTERN ISLANDS MAY SEE SOME INCREASE IN SHOWER ACTIVITY AS A
FRONT EXTENDING FROM A CENTRAL PACIFIC SYSTEM BECOMES ALIGNED
NEARLY PARALLEL WITH UPPER FLOW.  AT LEAST INTO SUNDAY 00Z/06Z GFS
RUNS AND SOME 00Z GEFS ENSEMBLES SHOW LOWER HEIGHTS ALOFT OVER THE
REGION VERSUS A MAJORITY OF OTHER MODELS/ENSEMBLES.  THUS IT MAY
BE REASONABLE TO LEAN TOWARD SLIGHTLY LATER ONSET OF RAINFALL THAN
DEPICTED IN THE GFS/GEFS MEAN.

RAUSCH

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