Prognostic Meteorological Discussion
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FXHW01 KWNH 291229
PMDHI

HAWAII EXTENDED FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
828 AM EDT WED JUL 29 2015

VALID 00Z THU JUL 30 2015 - 00Z THU AUG 06 2015

UPPER RIDGING CONTINUES WESTWARD OVER HAWAII.A CLUSTER OF
THUNDERSTORMS NEAR 10N 144W THIS MORNING IS BEING MONITORED BY
CPHC AND CURRENTLY APPEARS TO REMAIN WELL SOUTH OF THE ISLANDS. BY
THIS WEEKEND, THE ENSEMBLES TAKE WEAKENING TD 8E PAST 150W.
HOWEVER, ITS MOISTURE WILL CONTINUE WESTWARD TOWARD HAWAI`I. PW
PLUME FORECASTS FROM THE ENSEMBLES SHOW THAT THE 00Z ECMWF AND GFS
INCREASE VALUES RISING TO BETWEEN 2-2.25 INCHES SATURDAY INTO
EARLY NEXT WEEK AROUND HILO... THOUGH THE GFS NOT SO MUCH. THIS IS
ASSOCIATED WITH A EP91 THAT APPEARS TO HEAD NORTHWESTWARD TOWARD
HAWAII LATE IN THE FORECAST WHEN CONFIDENCE OF COURSE IS
RELATIVELY LOW.   A WETTER PATTERN COULD PREVAIL OVER AT LEAST THE
SE PORTION OF THE STATE AS THE MOISTURE MOVES WESTWARD WITH THIS
SYSTEM.


KOCIN

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