Prognostic Meteorological Discussion
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000
FXHW01 KWNH 101220
PMDHI

HAWAII EXTENDED FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
819 AM EDT THU JUL 10 2014

VALID 00Z FRI JUL 11 2014 - 00Z FRI JUL 18 2014

DURING THU-SAT EXPECT GRADUALLY WEAKENING TRADES WITH MOSTLY LIGHT
WINDWARD SHOWERS AS A PORTION OF THE SURFACE RIDGE TO THE N OF THE
STATE ALONG 30-35N WEAKENS AND PW VALUES DECLINE TO OR BELOW 1.25
INCHES.  THERE IS GOOD AGREEMENT THAT MOISTURE INITIALLY
ASSOCIATED WITH FAUSTO SHOULD REACH THE AREA AROUND SUN-MON AND
POSSIBLY INTO TUE WITH PW VALUES POSSIBLY REACHING AT LEAST 2
INCHES AT SOME LOCATIONS... THUS ENHANCING RAINFALL POTENTIAL IN
THIS TIME FRAME.  HOWEVER THERE IS SIGNIFICANT SPREAD AS TO THE
LATITUDE OF GREATEST MOISTURE AND A POSSIBLE 850MB CIRCULATION.
00Z GEFS AND ECMWF MEMBERS DO NOT SEEM TO ADD TOO MUCH INFORMATION
WITH THE FORMER GENERALLY SIDING WITH THE MORE SOUTHERN TRACK OF
THE GFS AND THE LATTER TENDING TO SHOW A FARTHER NORTHWARD EXTENT
AS PER THE ECMWF.  A COMPROMISE STILL APPEARS MOST REASONABLE AND
BY MON-TUE THE 06Z GFS DOES PULL ITS DEEP MOISTURE FARTHER
NORTHWARD THAN THE 00Z RUN.  BY WED-THU A DEEP LAYER RIDGE
BUILDING OVER THE EASTERN PACIFIC WILL BE SUFFICIENTLY FAR REMOVED
FROM HAWAI`I TO KEEP TRADES IN THE LIGHT-MODERATE RANGE WHILE
SHOWERS SHOULD TREND LIGHTER AS PW VALUES DECREASE AT LEAST TO
NORMAL LEVELS.

RAUSCH

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