Prognostic Meteorological Discussion
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FXHW01 KWNH 221218
PMDHI

HAWAII EXTENDED FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
717 AM EST MON JAN 22 2018

VALID 00Z TUE JAN 23 2018 - 00Z TUE JAN 30 2018

MODELS AND ENSEMBLES REASONABLY AGREE IN SHOWING A TRANSITIONAL
FLOW PATTERN OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS AS WEAK SHORTWAVES APPROACH
FROM THE WEST TO LOWER HEIGHTS OVER THE ISLANDS. SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE BRIDGING TO THE NORTH OF THE STATE WILL SUPPORT MODERATE
TRADES AND MOISTURE POOLING ALONG AN OLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL
FUEL SHOWER ACTIVITY ACROSS THE STATE. THIS IS SUPPORTED BY LATEST
SATELLITE AND RADAR IMAGERY.

GUIDANCE GENERALLY AGREES TO TRACK AN AMPLIFIED UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
AND DEEP SURFACE LOW TO THE NORTHWEST OF THE STATE MID-LATE WEEK
AS LEAD TRADES VEER AND WEAKEN. A FAVORED GUIDANCE COMPOSITE
BRINGS A COLD FRONT TO THE ISLANDS HEADING INTO NEXT WEEKEND AS
UNDERCUTTING SHORTWAVE ENERGY/HEIGHT FALLS COMBINE WITH LINGERING
MOISTURE TO PRODUCE SOME LOCAL DOWNPOURS. EXPECT A DRIER PATTERN
WILL USHER IN OVER THE WEEKEND IN THE WAKE OF SYSTEM PASSAGE.

SCHICHTEL

$$





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