Prognostic Meteorological Discussion
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FXUS06 KWBC 221901
PMDMRD
PROGNOSTIC DISCUSSION FOR 6 TO 10 AND 8 TO 14 DAY OUTLOOKS
NWS CLIMATE PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK, MD
300 PM EDT TUE JULY 22 2014

6-10 DAY OUTLOOK FOR JUL 28 - AUG 01, 2014

TODAY`S MODELS REMAIN IS GOOD AGREEMENT WITH RESPECT TO THE HIGH AMPLITUDE
PATTERN FORECAST OVER NORTH AMERICA. CONFIDENCE ALSO REMAINS HIGH AS THE THE
VARIOUS DYNAMICAL TOOLS AND STATISTICAL TOOLS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT ON WHAT
SHOULD BE ANOTHER IMPRESSIVELY COOL SUMMER PERIOD OVER THE EAST-CENTRAL CONUS.
TODAY`S OFFICIAL 500-HPA HEIGHT MANUAL BLEND FOR THE 6-10 DAY PERIOD FEATURES
AN ANOMALOUSLY STRONG RIDGE CENTERED NEAR THE BERING STRAIT, A HIGH-AMPLITUDE
RIDGE EXTENDING FROM THE WESTERN CONUS NORTHEASTWARD TOWARD THE WESTERN SHORE
OF HUDSON BAY, AND DEEP TROUGHS OVER THE GULF OF ALASKA AND EASTERN CONUS.

A HIGH-AMPLITUDE TROUGH PREDICTED OVER THE EASTERN CONUS FAVORS ANOMALOUS
NORTHERLY WINDS AND BELOW-NORMAL TEMPERATURES OVER MUCH OF THE EASTERN U.S.
PROBABILITIES ARE HIGHEST OVER THE GREAT LAKES REGION AND THE OHIO AND MIDDLE
MISSISSIPPI VALLEYS WHERE NEGATIVE TEMPERATURE ANOMALIES ARE EXPECTED TO BE THE
GREATEST. SINCE THE FRONT IS NOT EXPECTED TO MAKE IT TO THE GULF COAST UNTIL
LATER IN THE 6-10 DAY PERIOD, TEMPERATURES ALONG THE GULF COAST, IN FLORIDA,
AND IN COASTAL REGIONS OF THE SOUTHEAST ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN NEAR TO ABOVE
NORMAL. ANOMALOUS RIDGING AND SOUTHERLY FLOW FAVOR ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES
FOR MOST OF TEXAS AND INTO THE SOUTHWEST. ANOMALOUS RIDGING COMBINED WITH
ANOMALOUS OFFSHORE WINDS STRONGLY FAVOR ABOVE-NORMAL TEMPERATURES FOR THE
WESTERN CONUS. ABOVE-NORMAL HEIGHTS FAVOR NEAR- TO ABOVE-NORMAL TEMPERATURES
FOR THE ALEUTIANS, SOUTHERN ALASKA, AND THE ALASKAN PANHANDLE. BELOW-NORMAL
TEMPERATURES ARE FAVORED IN NORTHERN ALASKA WHERE HIGH PRESSURE AND ANOMALOUS
NORTHERLY FLOW FAVOR BELOW-NORMAL TEMPERATURES.

BELOW-MEDIAN PRECIPITATION IS FAVORED NEAR AND DOWNSTREAM OF THE AMPLIFIED
RIDGE FORECAST OVER WESTERN NORTH AMERICA. THE FRONT FORECAST OVER THE
SOUTHEAST AND EASTERN U.S. WILL BE A FOCAL POINT FOR PRECIPITATION, FAVORING
NEAR- TO ABOVE-MEDIAN PRECIPITATION FOR PARTS OF THE EASTERN U.S. EXTENDING
WESTWARD TO THE SOUTHERN PLAINS AND PARTS OF THE SOUTHWEST. PROBABILITIES FOR
ABOVE-MEDIAN PRECIPITATION ARE ENHANCED COMPARED TO YESTERDAY`S FORECAST OVER
THE SOUTHWEST, WHERE THE STALLED FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL FOCUS PRECIPITATION AS
500-HPA HEIGHTS ARE FORECAST TO BE NEARER TO NORMAL COMPARED TO YESTERDAY`S
OUTLOOK. ANOMALOUS RIDGING AND SUBSIDENCE FAVORS BELOW-MEDIAN PRECIPITATION
OVER PARTS OF FAR SOUTHERN TEXAS. BELOW-MEDIAN PRECIPITATION IS FAVORED FOR
WESTERN ALASKA DUE TO ANOMALOUS NORTHERLY FLOW AT MID LEVELS EAST OF THE
AMPLIFIED RIDGE.

TODAY`S OFFICIAL 500-HPA BLEND CONSISTS OF 10 PERCENT OF TODAY`S OPERATIONAL 6Z
GFS CENTERED ON DAY 8...40 PERCENT OF TODAY`S 0Z EUROPEAN ENSEMBLE MEAN
CENTERED ON DAY 8...10 PERCENT OF TODAY`S OPERATIONAL 0Z ECMWF CENTERED ON DAY
8...20 PERCENT OF TODAY`S 0Z CANADIAN ENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON DAY 8...

MODEL OF THE DAY: TODAY`S 0Z ECMWF ENSEMBLE MEAN

FORECAST CONFIDENCE FOR THE 6-10 DAY PERIOD: WELL ABOVE AVERAGE, 5 OUT OF 5,
DUE TO EXCELLENT AGREEMENT AMONG TODAY`S MODELS AND TOOLS.

8-14 DAY OUTLOOK FOR JUL 30 - AUG 05, 2014

THE FORECAST CIRCULATION FOR WEEK-2 IS EXPECTED TO BE VERY SIMILAR TO THE 6-10
DAY PERIOD, THOUGH SIGNIFICANTLY LESS AMPLIFIED. THE TEMPERATURE ANOMALY
OUTLOOK IS SIMILAR TO THAT IN THE 6-10 DAY PERIOD, THOUGH PROBABILITIES ARE
GENERALLY LOWER AND THE PROBABILITIES FOR BELOW-NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE SHIFTED
SOUTH AND WEST AS THE AREA OF RELATIVELY LOW 500-HPA HEIGHTS EXPANDS
SOUTHWESTWARD. UNCERTAINTY IS SUBSTANTIALLY HIGHER ACROSS THE WESTERN THIRD OF
THE CONUS COMPARED TO THE 6-10 DAY PERIOD, WITH THE NEAR-NORMAL 500-HPA HEIGHTS
FORECAST A RESULT OF LARGE ENSEMBLE SPREAD.

THE OFFICIAL 8-14 DAY HEIGHT PROG CONSISTS OF: 25 PERCENT OF TODAY`S 6Z GFS
ENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON DAY 11...45 PERCENT OF TODAY`S 0Z EUROPEAN ENSEMBLE
MEAN CENTERED ON DAY 11...15 PERCENT OF TODAY`S 0Z CANADIAN ENSEMBLE MEAN
CENTERED ON DAY 11...

FORECAST CONFIDENCE FOR THE 8-14 DAY PERIOD IS: ABOVE AVERAGE, 4 OUT OF 5, DUE
TO GOOD AGREEMENT AMONG THE MODELS AND TOOLS, OFFSET BY THE FACT THAT THE
PATTERN IS PREDICTED TO BE LESS AMPLIFIED THAN IN THE 6-10 DAY PERIOD.

FORECASTER: STEPHEN BAXTER

NOTES:


AUTOMATED FORECASTS ARE ISSUED ON SATURDAY AND SUNDAY. OCCASIONALLY MANUAL
INTERVENTION IS NECESSARY TO ADDRESS QUALITY CONTROL AND CONSISTENCY ISSUES.
IN THESE CASES, FORECASTS ARE MANUALLY DRAWN BUT A FULL DISCUSSION IS NOT
ISSUED.

THE NOTATION FOR THE CATEGORICAL FORECAST INDICATED ON THE MAPS IS
THE SAME AS THAT IN THE TABLES: A-ABOVE   N-NEAR NORMAL   B-BELOW

THE TEMPERATURE MAP SHOWS REGIONS WITH > 33% CHANCE OF BEING WARMER
(ORANGE, "A"), COLDER (BLUE, "B"), OR CLOSE TO (UNSHADED, "N")
HISTORICAL AVERAGE VALUES FOR THE CALENDAR PERIOD OF THE FORECAST
(DASHES, "F").  LABELS ON THE SHADED LINES GIVE THE PROBABILITY
(> 33%) OF THE MORE LIKELY CATEGORY (B OR A).  PROBABILITY OF N IS
ALWAYS < 40%.

THE PRECIPITATION MAP SHOWS REGIONS WITH > 33% CHANCE OF BEING
WETTER (GREEN, "A"), DRIER (TAN, "B"), OR CLOSE TO (UNSHADED, "N")
HISTORICAL MEDIAN VALUES FOR THE CALENDAR PERIOD OF THE FORECAST
(DASHES, "INCHES").  LABELS ON THE SHADED LINES GIVE THE PROBABILITY
(> 33%) OF THE MORE LIKELY CATEGORY (B OR A).  PROBABILITY OF N IS
ALWAYS < 40%.

IN THE SOUTHWEST AND OTHER CLIMATOLOGICALLY DRY REGIONS - THERE WILL
BE A GREATER THAN 33.3% CHANCE OF NO PRECIPITATION AND OCCASIONALLY
EVEN A NORMAL (I.E. MEDIAN) VALUE OF ZERO - ESPECIALLY DURING THE DRY
SEASONS.  IN SUCH CASES A FORECAST OF NEAR NORMAL IS EFFECTIVELY A
FORECAST OF LITTLE OR NO PRECIPITATION.

THE CLIMATE PREDICTION CENTER USES 1981-2010 BASE PERIOD MEANS FOR
TEMPERATURE...PRECIPITATION...AND 500-HPA HEIGHTS AS REFERENCE IN
THE CLIMATE OUTLOOKS.

THE NEXT SET OF LONG-LEAD MONTHLY AND SEASONAL OUTLOOKS WILL BE RELEASED ON
AUGUST 21

ANALOGS TO THE 5 DAY MEAN OBSERVED PATTERN CENTERED 3 DAYS AGO (D-3)
FOR THE REGION FROM 20N TO 70N LATITUDE AND 175E TO 60W LONGITUDE
INCLUDE THE 5 DAY PERIODS CENTERED ON THE FOLLOWING DATES:
19820719 - 20050717 - 19670708 - 19810731 - 19750802


ANALOGS TO THE 7 DAY MEAN OBSERVED PATTERN CENTERED 4 DAYS AGO (D-4)
FOR THE REGION FROM 20N TO 70N LATITUDE AND 175E TO 60W LONGITUDE
INCLUDE THE 7 DAY PERIODS CENTERED ON THE FOLLOWING DATES:
20050717 - 19750804 - 19670708 - 19810702 - 19820719


6-10 DAY OUTLOOK TABLE
OUTLOOK FOR JUL 28 - AUG 01, 2014

STATE      TEMP PCPN   STATE      TEMP PCPN   STATE      TEMP PCPN
WASHINGTON  A    B     OREGON      A    B     NRN CALIF   A    N
SRN CALIF   A    N     IDAHO       A    N     NEVADA      A    N
W MONTANA   A    B     E MONTANA   N    B     WYOMING     N    B
UTAH        A    A     ARIZONA     A    N     COLORADO    B    A
NEW MEXICO  A    A     N DAKOTA    B    B     S DAKOTA    B    B
NEBRASKA    B    B     KANSAS      B    A     OKLAHOMA    B    A
N TEXAS     N    N     S TEXAS     A    B     W TEXAS     A    A
MINNESOTA   B    B     IOWA        B    B     MISSOURI    B    B
ARKANSAS    B    N     LOUISIANA   N    N     WISCONSIN   B    N
ILLINOIS    B    N     MISSISSIPPI B    N     MICHIGAN    B    A
INDIANA     B    N     OHIO        B    N     KENTUCKY    B    N
TENNESSEE   B    N     ALABAMA     B    N     NEW YORK    B    A
VERMONT     B    A     NEW HAMP    B    A     MAINE       N    A
MASS        B    A     CONN        B    A     RHODE IS    B    A
PENN        B    A     NEW JERSEY  B    A     W VIRGINIA  B    N
MARYLAND    B    A     DELAWARE    B    A     VIRGINIA    B    A
N CAROLINA  B    A     S CAROLINA  N    A     GEORGIA     A    N
FL PNHDL    A    N     FL PENIN    A    N     AK N SLOPE  B    N
AK ALEUTIAN A    B     AK WESTERN  A    B     AK INT BSN  N    N
AK S INT    A    N     AK SO COAST A    N     AK PNHDL    A    N



8-14 DAY OUTLOOK TABLE
OUTLOOK FOR JUL 30 - AUG 05, 2014

STATE      TEMP PCPN   STATE      TEMP PCPN   STATE      TEMP PCPN
WASHINGTON  A    N     OREGON      A    N     NRN CALIF   A    N
SRN CALIF   A    N     IDAHO       A    N     NEVADA      A    N
W MONTANA   A    N     E MONTANA   A    B     WYOMING     N    N
UTAH        A    N     ARIZONA     A    N     COLORADO    B    A
NEW MEXICO  A    A     N DAKOTA    N    B     S DAKOTA    B    B
NEBRASKA    B    N     KANSAS      B    A     OKLAHOMA    B    A
N TEXAS     B    A     S TEXAS     N    N     W TEXAS     B    A
MINNESOTA   B    B     IOWA        B    B     MISSOURI    B    B
ARKANSAS    B    A     LOUISIANA   B    A     WISCONSIN   B    N
ILLINOIS    B    N     MISSISSIPPI B    A     MICHIGAN    B    N
INDIANA     B    N     OHIO        B    N     KENTUCKY    B    N
TENNESSEE   B    N     ALABAMA     B    A     NEW YORK    B    A
VERMONT     N    A     NEW HAMP    N    A     MAINE       N    N
MASS        N    A     CONN        N    A     RHODE IS    N    A
PENN        B    A     NEW JERSEY  B    A     W VIRGINIA  B    N
MARYLAND    B    A     DELAWARE    B    A     VIRGINIA    B    A
N CAROLINA  B    A     S CAROLINA  B    A     GEORGIA     B    A
FL PNHDL    B    A     FL PENIN    N    N     AK N SLOPE  B    B
AK ALEUTIAN A    N     AK WESTERN  A    B     AK INT BSN  N    B
AK S INT    N    B     AK SO COAST A    N     AK PNHDL    N    N

                           LEGEND
TEMPS WITH RESPECT TO NORMAL     PCPN WITH RESPECT TO MEDIAN
A - ABOVE   N  - NEAR NORMAL     A - ABOVE   N - NEAR MEDIAN
B - BELOW                        B - BELOW

THE FORECAST CLASSES REPRESENT AVERAGES FOR EACH STATE. NORMAL
VALUES - WHICH MAY VARY WIDELY ACROSS SOME STATES - ARE
AVAILABLE FROM YOUR LOCAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECAST OFFICE.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION SEE MESSAGE FXUS06 KWBC - ON AWIPS AS
PMDMRD.

$$



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