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FXUS06 KWBC 112014
PMDMRD
PROGNOSTIC DISCUSSION FOR 6 TO 10 AND 8 TO 14 DAY OUTLOOKS
NWS CLIMATE PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK, MD
300 PM EST THU FEBRUARY 11 2016

6-10 DAY OUTLOOK FOR FEB 17 - 21 2016

TODAY`S MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT ON THE PREDICTED 500-HPA CIRCULATION
PATTERN OVER THE NORTH AMERICAN FORECAST DOMAIN FOR THE 6-10 DAY PERIOD. MODELS
INDICATE A TROUGH OVER THE BEING SEA, A RIDGE OVER THE NORTHWESTERN U.S. AND
EASTERN ALASKA, AND A TROUGH OVER EASTERN CANADA AND THE NORTHEASTERN U.S. A
SOUTHERN JET STREAM UNDERCUTS THE RIDGE EXPECTED OVER THE NORTHWESTERN CONUS.
THE BLENDED 500-HPA HEIGHT CHART DEPICTS ABOVE NORMAL HEIGHTS OVER MOST OF THE
CONUS EXCEPT FOR A SMALL PORTION OF THE NORTHWEST U.S. WHERE NEAR TO BELOW
NORMAL HEIGHTS ARE PREDICTED. BELOW NORMAL HEIGHTS ARE ALSO ANTICIPATED OVER
ALASKA. THE ENSEMBLE SPAGHETTI CHARTS GENERALLY INDICATE LOW TO MODERATE SPREAD
ACROSS MOST OF THE FORECAST DOMAIN.

THERE IS FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT ON THE PREDICTED TEMPERATURE PATTERN. ENHANCED
PROBABILITIES OF ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST FOR MUCH OF THE CONUS
DUE TO THE EXPECTATION OF ABOVE NORMAL HEIGHTS AND THE LACK OF ARCTIC AIR
INTRUSIONS INTO THE COUNTRY. FOR ALASKA, ANOMALOUS SOUTHERLY FLOW AHEAD OF THE
TROUGH OVER THE BERING SEA ENHANCES PROBABILITIES FOR ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES
FOR MOST OF THE STATE.

THE RIDGE OVER THE WESTERN CONUS AND THE LARGE AREA OF ABOVE NORMAL HEIGHTS
ENHANCE PROBABILITIES FOR BELOW MEDIAN PRECIPITATION FOR SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA
AND THE SOUTHWESTERN AND SOUTHERN CONUS. THE TROUGH EXPECTED OVER THE NORTHEAST
AND ANOMALOUS WESTERLY FLOW OVER THE NORTHWEST TILT THE ODDS TO ABOVE MEDIAN
PRECIPITATION FOR MOST OF THE NORTHERN TIER OF THE CONUS. JET STREAM ENERGY
UNDERCUTTING THE WESTERN RIDGE TILT THE ODDS TO ABOVE MEDIAN PRECIPITATION FOR
PARTS OF SOUTHERN TEXAS.

TODAY`S OFFICIAL 500-HPA BLEND CONSISTS OF 10% OF TODAY`S 0Z GFS ENSEMBLE MEAN
CENTERED ON DAY 8, 10% OF TODAY`S 6Z GFS ENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON DAY 8, 15%
OF TODAY`S GFS SUPERENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON DAY 8, 5% OF TODAY`S OPERATIONAL
0Z GFS CENTERED ON DAY 8, 10% OF TODAY`S OPERATIONAL 6Z GFS CENTERED ON DAY 8,
20% OF TODAY`S 0Z EUROPEAN ENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON DAY 8, 10% OF YESTERDAY`S
12Z EUROPEAN ENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON DAY 7, AND 20% OF TODAY`S 0Z CANADIAN
ENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON DAY 8


FORECAST CONFIDENCE FOR THE 6-10 DAY PERIOD: ABOVE AVERAGE, 4 OUT OF 5, DUE TO
GOOD MODEL AGREEMENT ON THE 500-HPA PATTERN AND GENERALLY GOOD AGREEMENT AMONG
THE FORECAST TOOLS.

8-14 DAY OUTLOOK FOR FEB 19 - 25 2016

MODELS ARE IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT ON THE PREDICTED 500-HPA CIRCULATION
PATTERN OVER THE NORTH AMERICAN FORECAST DOMAIN FOR THE 8-14 DAY PERIOD.
TROUGHS ARE ANTICIPATED OVER THE BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS AND THE NORTHEAST CONUS
(ALTHOUGH RELATIVELY WEAK FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR), WHILE A RIDGE STRENGTHENS
OVER THE WESTERN CONUS AND ALASKA. JET ENERGY IN THE SOUTHERN STREAM IS
PREDICTED TO UNDERCUT THE WESTERN RIDGE. THE ENSEMBLE SPAGHETTI CHARTS
GENERALLY INDICATE MODERATE SPREAD OVER THE EASTERN CONUS AND MODERATE TO LARGE
SPREAD OVER THE WESTERN CONUS AND THE EASTERN PACIFIC. THE BLENDED HEIGHT CHART
INDICATES ABOVE NORMAL HEIGHTS OVER THE ENTIRE CONUS AND CENTRAL AND EASTERN
ALASKA, AND BELOW NORMAL HEIGHTS OVER WESTERN ALASKA AND THE ALEUTIANS.

THE PREDICTED TEMPERATURE PATTERN FOR WEEK-2 IS VERY SIMILAR TO THAT DEPICTED
FOR THE 6-10 DAY PERIOD. FOR PRECIPITATION, ABOVE NORMAL HEIGHTS TILT THE ODDS
TO BELOW MEDIAN FOR THE SOUTHEAST AND MUCH OF THE WESTERN CONUS. A
STRENGTHENING SOUTHERN JET STREAM ENHANCES PROBABILITIES FOR ABOVE MEDIAN
PRECIPITATION FOR CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN TEXAS. ABOVE MEDIAN PRECIPITATION IS
ALSO ANTICIPATED FOR THE GREAT LAKES AND NORTHEAST CONUS DUE TO THE TROUGH
EXPECTED OVER THE NORTHEAST. THE TROUGH OVER THE BERING SEA FAVORS ABOVE MEDIAN
PRECIPITATION FOR THE EASTERN ALEUTIANS, SOUTHWESTERN ALASKA, AND THE ALASKA
PANHANDLE.


THE OFFICIAL 8-14 DAY HEIGHT PROG CONSISTS OF: 15% OF TODAY`S 0Z GFS ENSEMBLE
MEAN CENTERED ON DAY 11, 10% OF TODAY`S 6Z GFS ENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON DAY
11, 15% OF TODAY`S GFS SUPERENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON DAY 11, 5% OF TODAY`S
OPERATIONAL 0Z GFS CENTERED ON DAY 11, 5% OF TODAY`S OPERATIONAL 6Z GFS
CENTERED ON DAY 11, 20% OF TODAY`S 0Z EUROPEAN ENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON DAY
11, 5% OF YESTERDAY`S 12Z EUROPEAN ENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON DAY 10, 20% OF
TODAY`S 0Z CANADIAN ENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON DAY 11, AND 5% OF YESTERDAY`S 12Z
CANADIAN ENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON DAY 10


FORECAST CONFIDENCE FOR THE 8-14 DAY PERIOD IS: AVERAGE, 3 OUT OF 5, DUE TO
GOOD MODEL AGREEMENT ON THE 500-HPA PATTERN BUT SOME DISAGREEMENT IN THE
FORECAST TOOLS, ESPECIALLY FOR PRECIPITATION.

FORECASTER: RANDY SCHECHTER

NOTES:


AUTOMATED FORECASTS ARE ISSUED ON SATURDAY AND SUNDAY. OCCASIONALLY MANUAL
INTERVENTION IS NECESSARY TO ADDRESS QUALITY CONTROL AND CONSISTENCY ISSUES.
IN THESE CASES, FORECASTS ARE MANUALLY DRAWN BUT A FULL DISCUSSION IS NOT
ISSUED.

THE NOTATION FOR THE CATEGORICAL FORECAST INDICATED ON THE MAPS IS
THE SAME AS THAT IN THE TABLES: A-ABOVE   N-NEAR NORMAL   B-BELOW

THE TEMPERATURE MAP SHOWS REGIONS WITH > 33% CHANCE OF BEING WARMER
(ORANGE, "A"), COLDER (BLUE, "B"), OR CLOSE TO (UNSHADED, "N")
HISTORICAL AVERAGE VALUES FOR THE CALENDAR PERIOD OF THE FORECAST
(DASHES, "F").  LABELS ON THE SHADED LINES GIVE THE PROBABILITY
(> 33%) OF THE MORE LIKELY CATEGORY (B OR A).  PROBABILITY OF N IS
ALWAYS < 40%.

THE PRECIPITATION MAP SHOWS REGIONS WITH > 33% CHANCE OF BEING
WETTER (GREEN, "A"), DRIER (TAN, "B"), OR CLOSE TO (UNSHADED, "N")
HISTORICAL MEDIAN VALUES FOR THE CALENDAR PERIOD OF THE FORECAST
(DASHES, "INCHES").  LABELS ON THE SHADED LINES GIVE THE PROBABILITY
(> 33%) OF THE MORE LIKELY CATEGORY (B OR A).  PROBABILITY OF N IS
ALWAYS < 40%.

IN THE SOUTHWEST AND OTHER CLIMATOLOGICALLY DRY REGIONS - THERE WILL
BE A GREATER THAN 33.3% CHANCE OF NO PRECIPITATION AND OCCASIONALLY
EVEN A NORMAL (I.E. MEDIAN) VALUE OF ZERO - ESPECIALLY DURING THE DRY
SEASONS.  IN SUCH CASES A FORECAST OF NEAR NORMAL IS EFFECTIVELY A
FORECAST OF LITTLE OR NO PRECIPITATION.

THE CLIMATE PREDICTION CENTER USES 1981-2010 BASE PERIOD MEANS FOR
TEMPERATURE...PRECIPITATION...AND 500-HPA HEIGHTS AS REFERENCE IN
THE CLIMATE OUTLOOKS.

THE NEXT SET OF LONG-LEAD MONTHLY AND SEASONAL OUTLOOKS WILL BE RELEASED ON
FEBRUARY 18

ANALOGS TO THE 5 DAY MEAN OBSERVED PATTERN CENTERED 3 DAYS AGO (D-3)
FOR THE REGION FROM 20N TO 70N LATITUDE AND 175E TO 60W LONGITUDE
INCLUDE THE 5 DAY PERIODS CENTERED ON THE FOLLOWING DATES:
19770218 - 19950202 - 20030125 - 19520128 - 19860126


ANALOGS TO THE 7 DAY MEAN OBSERVED PATTERN CENTERED 4 DAYS AGO (D-4)
FOR THE REGION FROM 20N TO 70N LATITUDE AND 175E TO 60W LONGITUDE
INCLUDE THE 7 DAY PERIODS CENTERED ON THE FOLLOWING DATES:
19770217 - 19950203 - 20030126 - 19860125 - 19540207


6-10 DAY OUTLOOK TABLE
OUTLOOK FOR FEB 17 - 21 2016

STATE      TEMP PCPN   STATE      TEMP PCPN   STATE      TEMP PCPN
WASHINGTON  A    A     OREGON      A    A     NRN CALIF   A    A
SRN CALIF   A    B     IDAHO       A    A     NEVADA      A    A
W MONTANA   A    A     E MONTANA   A    N     WYOMING     A    N
UTAH        A    N     ARIZONA     A    B     COLORADO    A    B
NEW MEXICO  A    B     N DAKOTA    A    N     S DAKOTA    A    N
NEBRASKA    A    B     KANSAS      A    B     OKLAHOMA    A    B
N TEXAS     A    B     S TEXAS     A    N     W TEXAS     A    B
MINNESOTA   A    A     IOWA        A    N     MISSOURI    A    N
ARKANSAS    A    B     LOUISIANA   A    B     WISCONSIN   A    A
ILLINOIS    A    N     MISSISSIPPI A    B     MICHIGAN    A    A
INDIANA     A    A     OHIO        A    A     KENTUCKY    A    N
TENNESSEE   A    N     ALABAMA     A    B     NEW YORK    A    A
VERMONT     A    A     NEW HAMP    A    A     MAINE       A    A
MASS        A    A     CONN        A    A     RHODE IS    A    A
PENN        A    A     NEW JERSEY  A    A     W VIRGINIA  A    N
MARYLAND    A    N     DELAWARE    A    N     VIRGINIA    A    N
N CAROLINA  A    B     S CAROLINA  A    B     GEORGIA     A    B
FL PNHDL    N    B     FL PENIN    N    B     AK N SLOPE  N    B
AK ALEUTIAN A    A     AK WESTERN  A    A     AK INT BSN  A    B
AK S INT    A    A     AK SO COAST A    A     AK PNHDL    A    A



8-14 DAY OUTLOOK TABLE
OUTLOOK FOR FEB 19 - 25 2016

STATE      TEMP PCPN   STATE      TEMP PCPN   STATE      TEMP PCPN
WASHINGTON  A    N     OREGON      A    N     NRN CALIF   A    B
SRN CALIF   A    B     IDAHO       A    B     NEVADA      A    B
W MONTANA   A    B     E MONTANA   A    B     WYOMING     A    B
UTAH        A    B     ARIZONA     A    B     COLORADO    A    B
NEW MEXICO  A    B     N DAKOTA    A    B     S DAKOTA    A    B
NEBRASKA    A    B     KANSAS      A    B     OKLAHOMA    A    N
N TEXAS     A    A     S TEXAS     A    A     W TEXAS     A    A
MINNESOTA   A    N     IOWA        A    N     MISSOURI    A    N
ARKANSAS    A    N     LOUISIANA   A    N     WISCONSIN   A    A
ILLINOIS    A    N     MISSISSIPPI A    B     MICHIGAN    A    A
INDIANA     A    A     OHIO        A    N     KENTUCKY    A    B
TENNESSEE   A    B     ALABAMA     A    B     NEW YORK    A    A
VERMONT     A    A     NEW HAMP    A    A     MAINE       A    A
MASS        A    N     CONN        A    N     RHODE IS    A    N
PENN        A    N     NEW JERSEY  A    N     W VIRGINIA  A    B
MARYLAND    A    B     DELAWARE    A    B     VIRGINIA    A    B
N CAROLINA  A    B     S CAROLINA  A    B     GEORGIA     A    B
FL PNHDL    A    B     FL PENIN    A    N     AK N SLOPE  A    B
AK ALEUTIAN A    A     AK WESTERN  A    N     AK INT BSN  A    N
AK S INT    A    A     AK SO COAST A    A     AK PNHDL    A    A

                           LEGEND
TEMPS WITH RESPECT TO NORMAL     PCPN WITH RESPECT TO MEDIAN
A - ABOVE   N  - NEAR NORMAL     A - ABOVE   N - NEAR MEDIAN
B - BELOW                        B - BELOW

THE FORECAST CLASSES REPRESENT AVERAGES FOR EACH STATE. NORMAL
VALUES - WHICH MAY VARY WIDELY ACROSS SOME STATES - ARE
AVAILABLE FROM YOUR LOCAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECAST OFFICE.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION SEE MESSAGE FXUS06 KWBC - ON AWIPS AS
PMDMRD.

$$



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