Prognostic Meteorological Discussion
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FXUS21 KWNC 261956
PMDTHR
US HAZARDS OUTLOOK
NWS CLIMATE PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
300 PM EST JANUARY 26 2015

SYNOPSIS: A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IS FORECAST TO RAPIDLY TRACK EAST FROM THE
MIDWEST ON THURSDAY. THIS SURFACE LOW IS EXPECTED TO INTENSIFY NEAR NORTHERN
NEW ENGLAND ON FRIDAY. MEANWHILE, AN UPPER-LEVEL AREA OF LOW PRESSURE IS
FORECAST TO REMAIN OVER THE SOUTHWEST LATER THIS WEEK. A STRONG SURFACE HIGH IS
EXPECTED TO SHIFT SOUTH FROM CANADA TO THE NORTH-CENTRAL U.S. BY THIS WEEKEND.
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE IS FORECAST TO PERSIST ACROSS NORTHERN AND EASTERN ALASKA
DURING THE NEXT WEEK.

HAZARDS

HEAVY SNOW FOR PARTS OF NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND, FRI, JAN 30.

HIGH WINDS FOR THE NORTHEAST, FRI-SAT, JAN 30-31.

MUCH BELOW-NORMAL TEMPERATURES EXPANDING SOUTHEAST FROM THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI
VALLEY TO THE EASTERN U.S., SAT-MON, JAN 31-FEB 2.

HEAVY SNOW FOR THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF ARIZONA AND NEW MEXICO, FRI-SAT, JAN
30-31.

A SLIGHT TO MODERATE RISK OF MUCH BELOW-NORMAL TEMPERATURES FOR MUCH OF THE
EASTERN U.S., TUE-WED, FEB 3-4.

SEVERE DROUGHT FOR THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN GREAT PLAINS, SOUTHWEST, GREAT
BASIN, CALIFORNIA, AND THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST.

DETAILED SUMMARY

FOR THURSDAY JANUARY 29 - MONDAY FEBRUARY 02: ANOTHER CLIPPER LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO MOVE FROM THE MIDWEST TO THE EAST COAST EARLY IN THE
PERIOD. MODEL GUIDANCE INDICATES AN INTENSIFYING SURFACE LOW NEAR NORTHERN NEW
ENGLAND ON FRIDAY. HEAVY SNOW, 6 INCHES OR MORE, IS MOST LIKELY ACROSS NORTHERN
NEW ENGLAND ON FRIDAY WITH THIS SURFACE LOW BUT MAY EXTEND AS FAR SOUTH AS
BOSTON. SINCE SNOWFALL AMOUNTS ARE MORE UNCERTAIN FOR BOSTON, A HEAVY SNOW
HAZARD IS NOT POSTED FOR THIS REGION AT THIS TIME. AS THE SURFACE LOW
STRENGTHENS, HIGH WINDS (GREATER THAN 30 KNOTS) ARE FORECAST TO DEVELOP ACROSS
THE NORTHEAST AND CONTINUE THROUGH SATURDAY.



A 1036-HPA SURFACE HIGH IS EXPECTED TO SHIFT SOUTHEAST FROM CANADA AND BRING
MUCH-BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES (NEGATIVE ANOMALIES OF 12 DEGREES F OR MORE) TO
THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY ON SATURDAY AND THEN TO PARTS OF THE EASTERN U.S.
BY MONDAY. A WIDESPREAD AREA OF SUBZERO MINIMUM TEMPERATURES IS FORECAST ACROSS
THE GREAT LAKES AND NORTHEAST ON SUNDAY AND MONDAY MORNINGS. LAKE-EFFECT SNOW
IS EXPECTED TO ACCOMPANY THE COLD AIR ADVECTION THIS WEEKEND.



A BROAD UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH INTERACTING WITH SUBTROPICAL MOISTURE IS FORECAST TO
RESULT IN WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION DEVELOPING ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST BY FRIDAY.
HEAVY SNOW, 6 INCHES OR MORE, IS EXPECTED ACROSS THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF
ARIZONA AND NEW MEXICO ON FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. SNOW AND/OR FREEZING RAIN IS
POSSIBLE ACROSS THE SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS AND BIG BEND REGION OF TEXAS LATER
THIS WEEK, BUT HIGH UNCERTAINTY ON PRECIPITATION TYPE AND AMOUNTS PRECLUDES
DESIGNATION OF THESE WINTER WEATHER HAZARDS AT THIS TIME.



EARLY NEXT WEEK, THE POTENTIAL EXISTS FOR SNOW AND FREEZING RAIN TO SPREAD EAST
FROM THE SOUTHERN GREAT PLAINS AND AFFECT THE EASTERN U.S.  DUE TO POOR MODEL
CONTINUITY AND LACK OF MODEL AGREEMENT, NO WINTER WEATHER HAZARDS CAN BE
SPECIFIED AT THIS TIME.



ALASKA IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN MOSTLY DRY WITH BELOW-NORMAL TEMPERATURES DUE TO A
PERSISTENT SURFACE HIGH.

FOR TUESDAY FEBRUARY 03 - MONDAY FEBRUARY 09: AN AMPLIFIED UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH
IS EXPECTED TO MAINTAIN BELOW-NORMAL TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE EASTERN U.S.
DURING WEEK-2. THE GEFS REFORECAST TOOL INDICATES MORE THAN A 40 PERCENT CHANCE
OF MINIMUM TEMPERATURES REACHING THE LOWER 15TH PERCENTILE ON FEBRUARY 3 AND 4
ACROSS THE NORTHEAST. THEREFORE, A MODERATE RISK OF MUCH-BELOW NORMAL
TEMPERATURES IS POSTED FOR THIS REGION. AN UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE IS FORECAST TO
MAINTAIN ABOVE-NORMAL TEMPERATURES ACROSS MUCH OF THE WESTERN U.S. CALIFORNIA
IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN DRY DURING WEEK-2, WHILE AN INCREASE IN ONSHORE FLOW
BRINGS PERIODS OF RAIN AND HIGH-ELEVATION SNOW TO THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST DURING
EARLY FEBRUARY.



THE MOST RECENT U.S. DROUGHT MONITOR, RELEASED ON JANUARY 22, 2015 INDICATES A
VERY SLIGHT INCREASE IN THE AREAL COVERAGE OF SEVERE TO EXCEPTIONAL DROUGHT (D2
TO D4) FROM 16.65 TO 16.97 PERCENT ACROSS THE CONTINENTAL U.S.

FORECASTER: BRAD PUGH

$$



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