Prognostic Meteorological Discussion
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FXUS21 KWNC 311916
PMDTHR
US HAZARDS OUTLOOK
NWS CLIMATE PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
300 PM EDT JULY 31 2014

SYNOPSIS: TWO COLD FRONTS ARE EXPECTED TO BE THE FOCUS FOR UNSETTLED WEATHER
DURING THIS OUTLOOK PERIOD.  THE FIRST IS FORECAST TO BE LOCATED ALONG THE EAST
COAST, WHILE THE OTHER MOVES FROM THE UPPER MIDWEST DOWN INTO THE CENTRAL
PLAINS.  THE TROPICAL EASTERN PACIFIC COULD BECOME ACTIVE, WITH A SYSTEM
IMPACTING HAWAII.  TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO BE BELOW NORMAL FOR MUCH OF THE
INTERIOR OF THE COUNTRY WHIL ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE LIKELY ALONG THE
WEST COAST, SOUTHERN TIER, AND FLORIDA.

HAZARDS

MUCH ABOVE-NORMAL TEMPERATURES FOR PARTS OF THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST AND NORTHERN
INTERMOUNTAIN WEST, SUN-WED, AUG 3-6.

HEAVY RAIN FOR THE COASTAL AREAS OF THE MID-ATLANTIC AND SOUTHEAST INTO
FLORIDA, SUN-MON, AUG 3-4.

THE POSSIBILITY OF FLASH FLOODING IN MOST OF THE DESERT SOUTHWEST.

SEVERE DROUGHT FOR PARTS OF THE GREAT PLAINS, SOUTHWEST, PACIFIC NORTHWEST,
GREAT BASIN, AND CALIFORNIA.

DETAILED SUMMARY

FOR SUNDAY AUGUST 03 - THURSDAY AUGUST 07: THIS FORECAST PERIOD IS EXPECTED TO
BEGIN WITH AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH IN THE EAST, A RIDGE IN THE WEST, AND AN
AMPLIFIED UPPER-LEVEL LOW SOUTH OF ALASKA.  UPPER-LEVEL ENERGY ROTATING AROUND
THE BASE OF THE EASTERN TROUGH IS FORECAST TO BRING HEAVY RAIN TO PARTS OF THE
MID-ATLANTIC AND SOUTHEASTERN COASTS AS WELL AS FLORIDA ON THE 3RD AND 4TH.



THE RIDGE IN THE WEST COUPLED WITH UPPER-LEVEL ENERGY SHOULD ALLOW FOR
LOCALIZED HEAVY RAIN IN PARTS OF THE DESERT SOUTHWEST.  RAIN THAT FALLS COULD
CAUSE FLASH FLOODING IN MOUNTAINOUS TERRAIN, THUS ANY PEOPLE WITH INTERESTS IN
THIS REGION SHOULD KEEP ABREAST OF LOCAL CONDITIONS COMING OUT OF NWS FIELD
OFFICES.



ON THE NORTHERN PERIPHERY OF THE RIDGE, CONTINUED MUCH ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED FOR THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST WITH DAILY HIGH
TEMPERATURES LIKELY TO GET INTO THE UPPER 90S.



A PIECE OF UPPER-LEVEL ENERGY IS FORECAST TO AMPLIFY AND MOVE DOWN INTO THE
CENTRAL PLAINS.  AS IT DOES, HEAVY RAIN IS FORECAST FOR PARTS OF NORTHERN IOWA
AND SURROUNDING STATES.  RAINFALL OF AT LEAST 3 INCHES IS POSSIBLE, AND WITH
THIS PART OF THE COUNTRY BEING VERY WET THIS SUMMER, LOCALIZED FLASH FLOODING
AND RIVER FLOODING CANNOT BE RULED OUT.



A STORM SOUTH OF ALASKA IS EXPECTED TO BRING RAIN TO THE PANHANDLE ON THE 5TH
AND 6TH.  WHILE RAINFALL TOTALS OF AN INCH ARE POSSIBLE, NO HAZARDS ARE
ANTICIPATED WITH THIS SYSTEM.



AN AREA OF DISTURBED WEATHER IN THE EASTERN PACIFIC THAT THE NATIONAL HURRICANE
CENTER CURRENTLY PREDICTS HAVING A 70% CHANCE OF FORMING INTO A TROPICAL SYSTEM
IS BEING TAKEN BY THE GFS ON A TRACK THAT TAKES IT VERY CLOSE TO HAWAII.  WHILE
IT IS UNCERTAIN WHAT EFFECTS THE STATE MIGHT SEE FROM THIS SYSTEM, HIGH SURF IS
THE MOST LIKELY IMPACT.  INTERESTS IN HAWAII SHOULD KEEP UPDATED WITH THE MOST
CURRENT INFORMATION COMING OUT OF THE NHC AT WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV

FOR FRIDAY AUGUST 08 - THURSDAY AUGUST 14: SOME NUMERICAL MODELS ARE PREDICTING
AN AMPLIFIED UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE TO MOVE OVER ALASKA AT THE BEGINNING OF THIS
PERIOD.  TEMPERATURES WOULD THEN BE MUCH ABOVE NORMAL, BUT SINCE NO ADVERSE
IMPACTS WOULD OCCUR, NO HAZARDS ARE PLACED ON THE MAP.



IN THE CONUS, REMNANTS OF THE UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE BRING A SLIGHT RISK OF MUCH
ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES TO THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST ON AUG 8.  AFTER THIS DAY,
THE FLOW IS PREDICTED TO DEAMPLIFY, ALLOWING FOR TEMPERATURES TO MODERATE.



THE MOST RECENT DROUGHT MONITOR, VALID JULY 29 SHOWS A DECREASE IN AREAL
COVERAGE OF SEVERE DROUGHT FROM 23.86% TO 22.77% ALTHOUGH THERE IS AN INCREASE
IN THE COVERAGE OF EXCEPTIONAL DROUGHT FROM 2.79% TO 3.90%.



SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE FROM CANADA SITUATED IN THE CENTRAL PLAINS COULD BRING
COLD NIGHTTIME TEMPERATURES ON AUGUST 8 TO PARTS OF THE FRONT RANGE AND HIGH
PLAINS FROM CENTRAL NEBRASKA TO CENTRAL COLORADO.  THE GEFS REFORECAST SYSTEM
IS CURRENTLY CALLING FOR A 15% CHANCE OF DAILY MINIMUM TEMPERATURES BELOW
FREEZING.  WHILE THIS POTENTIAL IS TOO LOW TO HIGHLIGHT AT THE CURRENT TIME, IT
SHOULD STILL BE FOLLOWED CLOSELY THROUGHOUT THE NEXT WEEK.





FORECASTER: KENNETH PELMAN

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