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NOUS41 KWBC 281838

Service Change Notice 17-54
National Weather Service Headquarters Silver Spring MD
238 PM EDT Fri Apr 28 2017

To:  Subscribers:
    -NOAA Weather Wire Service
    -Emergency Managers Weather Information Network
    Other NWS Partners, Users and Employees

From:  Dave Myrick
  NWS Office of Science and Technology Integration

Subject:  HYSPLIT Wild-Fire Smoke Prediction Update:
  Effective June 13, 2017

Effective on or about Tuesday, June 13, 2017, beginning with the
0600 Coordinated Universal Time (UTC) run, the National Centers
for Environmental Prediction (NCEP) will upgrade the HYSPLIT
wild-fire smoke prediction capability over CONUS, Alaska and

The scope of this upgrade includes:

Replace the current U.S. Forest Service BlueSky fire emission
module (BSF) with an updated version (BSF v3.5.1) that provides
wildfire smoke emissions to HYSPLIT smoke prediction for CONUS,
Alaska, Hawaii and to PM2.5 predictions from Community Multi-
scale Air Quality (CMAQ) for CONUS.

The updated BlueSky version 3.5.1 has:

- The Fuel Characteristic Classification System version 2
(FCCS2), which includes a more detailed description of the fuel
loadings with additional plant type categories
- Improved fuel consumption model and fire emission production
system (FEPS)
- Explicit fuel load map for Alaska (HYSPLIT only)

The expected impact of these changes includes:

- Improved wildfire smoke predictions for CONUS, Alaska and
Hawaii, especially from large forest fires

Predictions from the updated HYSPLIT model will be made available
through a parallel feed at the following:

Experimental HYSPLIT smoke predictions over CONUS, Alaska and
Hawaii will be available on the EMC air quality web page at:

Verification statistics of both HYSPLIT operational and
experimental predictions compared to the GOES satellite smoke
mask is found here:

With this upgrade there are no changes to any output. Current
HYSPLIT smoke prediction files are available at the following web

NWS Services:

NCEP Services:

Web graphics:

For questions regarding the updated model forecast guidance,
please contact:

Ivanka Stajner
Silver Spring, MD

For questions regarding the data flow, please contact:

Carissa Klemmer
NCEP Central Operations Dataflow Team Lead
College Park, MD

NWS Service Change Notices are online at: is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.