Preliminary Forecasts
Issued by NWS

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000
FXUS02 KWNH 280423
PREEPD

PRELIMINARY EXTENDED FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
1222 AM EDT FRI AUG 28 2015

VALID 12Z MON AUG 31 2015 - 12Z FRI SEP 04 2015


RELIED ON THE ENSEMBLE MEANS THIS FORECAST PACKAGE DUE TO THE HIGH
DEGREE OF SPREAD IN SYNOPTIC DETAIL AMONG THE RECENT OPERATIONAL
MODELS--PARTICULARLY WITH REGARD TO THE TROPICAL SYSTEM
APPROACHING SOUTHERN FLORIDA EARLY IN THE PERIOD. A VIGOROUS
EARLY-AUTUMN TROUGH EDGING INTO THE NORTHWEST WILL WRING OUT
IMPRESSIVE RAINFALL OVER WESTERN WASHINGTON EARLY NEXT WEEK, WITH
SNOWFALL IN THE HIGH CASCADES. THE MOISTURE SHOULD DROP OFF
QUICKLY EAST OF THE CASCADES, THOUGH THE NORTHERN CONTINENTAL
DIVIDE IS STILL EXPECTED TO BE WINDY, SHOWERY, AND COOLER BY LATE
IN THE WEEK. THE LEADING EDGE OF THE NORTHWESTERN TROUGH WILL PUSH
A SURFACE FRONT A GOODISH WAY ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS, WITH
BOUTS OF CONVECTION FIRING ASTRIDE THE BOUNDARY. THE REGION SHOULD
BE FAIRLY MOISTURE STARVED IN GENERAL, THOUGH, WITH THE GULF OF
MEXICO CUT OFF BY THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE CURVATURE. FOR THE
SOUTHWEST, A MODEST, LATE-SEASON MONSOON IS INDICATED THROUGH
MID-PERIOD, WITH SHEAR FROM THE NORTHWESTERN TROUGH CAUSING THE
TAP TO PETER OUT BY THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE IS
EXPECTED TO APPROACH A BERMUDA-HIGH CONFIGURATION OVER THE
SOUTHEAST THIS PERIOD, ALLOWING A POOLING OF TROPICAL MOISTURE
FROM THE NORTHEASTERN GULF OF MEXICO TO THE SOUTHERN MID-ATLANTIC.
USED THE LATEST NHC FORECAST FOR ERIKA, THOUGH MUCH MODEL
UNCERTAINTY EXISTS IN THAT SYSTEM`S TRACK AND INTENSITY.


CISCO

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