Tropical Cyclone Probabilities
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725
FOPZ13 KNHC 181440
PWSEP3

TROPICAL DEPRESSION THIRTEEN-E WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER   1
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP132017
1500 UTC FRI AUG 18 2017

AT 1500Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION THIRTEEN-E WAS LOCATED
NEAR LATITUDE 14.8 NORTH...LONGITUDE 116.5 WEST WITH MAXIMUM
SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 30 KTS...35 MPH...55 KM/H.

Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH)
   PACIFIC  DAYLIGHT TIME (PDT)...SUBTRACT 7 HOURS FROM Z TIME
   HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME

WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS

CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST
   ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)...
   ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)...
   ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)...
FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS

PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE
    OP  IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING
        AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY)
   (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN
        12Z FRI AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY)

PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT
X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT
PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN
THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT.
PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY
64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT.


  - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - -

               FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM
  TIME       12Z FRI 00Z SAT 12Z SAT 00Z SUN 12Z SUN 12Z MON 12Z TUE
PERIODS         TO      TO      TO      TO      TO      TO      TO
             00Z SAT 12Z SAT 00Z SUN 12Z SUN 12Z MON 12Z TUE 12Z WED

FORECAST HOUR    (12)   (24)    (36)    (48)    (72)    (96)   (120)
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -
LOCATION       KT

15N 120W       34  2  41(43)   1(44)   X(44)   X(44)   X(44)   X(44)
15N 120W       50  X   5( 5)   X( 5)   X( 5)   X( 5)   X( 5)   X( 5)
15N 120W       64  X   1( 1)   X( 1)   X( 1)   X( 1)   X( 1)   X( 1)

20N 120W       34  X   1( 1)   2( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)

15N 125W       34  X   1( 1)  13(14)  15(29)   1(30)   X(30)   X(30)
15N 125W       50  X   X( X)   X( X)   3( 3)   X( 3)   1( 4)   X( 4)

20N 125W       34  X   X( X)   3( 3)  11(14)   6(20)   1(21)   X(21)

15N 130W       34  X   X( X)   X( X)   2( 2)   9(11)   2(13)   X(13)

20N 130W       34  X   X( X)   X( X)   3( 3)  54(57)  10(67)   1(68)
20N 130W       50  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)  24(24)   8(32)   1(33)
20N 130W       64  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   9( 9)   5(14)   X(14)

25N 130W       34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   6( 7)   4(11)

20N 135W       34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   3( 3)  15(18)   4(22)
20N 135W       50  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   5( 5)   1( 6)
20N 135W       64  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   X( 1)

25N 135W       34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   4( 4)   8(12)

$$
FORECASTER ZELINSKY



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