Quantitative Precipitation Forecast
Issued by NWS

Home | Current Version | Previous Version | Text Only | Print | Product List | Glossary On
Versions: 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40 41 42 43 44 45 46 47 48 49 50
000
FOUS30 KWBC 050120
QPFERD

EXCESSIVE RAINFALL DISCUSSION
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
819 PM EST WED MAR 04 2015

...VALID 03Z THU MAR 05 2015 - 00Z FRI MAR 06 2015...
...REFERENCE AWIPS GRAPHIC UNDER...DAY 1 EXCESSIVE RAINFALL...


SLIGHT RISK OF RAINFALL EXCEEDING FFG TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM
25 N SHD 25 NE ROA 20 S BCB HLX 15 NE VJI 30 SE 1A6 15 WNW OQT
35 NNW CSV 15 SE GLW 25 NNW SME 20 NE JKL 10 NE CRW EKN
15 SW CBE 25 W MRB 25 N SHD.



...03Z UPDATE...

A SLIGHT RISK OF EXCESSIVE RAINFALL WAS RETAINED OVER PORTIONS OF
EASTERN KY AND SOUTHERN WV. WE CUT BACK ON THE NORTHERN EXTENT OF
THE RISK AREA AS PRECIPITATION WAS CHANGING TO SLEET AND SNOW
WEDNESDAY EVENING. WE EXPANDED THE RISK AREA A LITTLE SOUTH AND
EASTWARD INTO TN/VA WHERE SOME OF THE HEAVIER RAIN TOTALS WILL
OCCUR THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING...AND WHERE SNOW COVER AND FLASH
FLOOD GUIDANCE VALUES INDICATED AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEEING A LARGE
PERCENTAGE OF THE PRECIPITATION FORMING SURFACE RUNOFF.

GENERALLY...THE RISK OF FLASH FLOODING IS CONSIDERED LOW. THE
EVENT HAD THUS FAR BEEN CHARACTERIZED BY 3 AND 6 HOUR RAIN RATES
THAT WERE LESS THAN THE FLASH FLOOD GUIDANCE. MINOR FLOODING HAD
BEEN OBSERVED...BUT WITHOUT CONVECTIVE RAIN RATES THE FLOODING WAS
THAT OF A LONGER DURATION EVENT...WITH THE RISK OF RAPID RUNOFF
MORE STRONGLY RELATED TO THE COLD GROUND AND FROZEN OR PARTIALLY
FROZEN WATERWAYS. THERE IS NO REASON TO EXPECT ANY MARKED INCREASE
TO PRECIPITATION INTENSITY...AS NAM/SREF FORECASTS GIVE NO
INDICATION OF ANY CAPE DEVELOPING IN OR AROUND THE SLIGHT RISK
AREA. LIGHT TO MODERATE RAIN WILL PERSIST OVER A LENGTHY
DURATION...HOWEVER...WITH A CHANGEOVER TO ICE AND SNOW NOT
OCCURRING IN PORTIONS OF EASTERN TN AND SOUTHWEST VA UNTIL SUNRISE
THURSDAY MORNING. AVERAGE AREAL PRECIPITATION OF 0.50 TO JUST
UNDER 1.00 INCHES TONIGHT MAY COMBINE WITH COLD GROUND AND SOME
SNOW-MELT TO PRODUCE FLOODING.

BURKE
$$





USA.gov is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.