Quantitative Precipitation Forecast
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FOUS30 KWBC 011415
QPFERD

EXCESSIVE RAINFALL DISCUSSION
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
1014 AM EDT TUE SEP 01 2015

...VALID 15Z TUE SEP 01 2015 - 12Z WED SEP 02 2015...
...REFERENCE AWIPS GRAPHIC UNDER...DAY 1 EXCESSIVE RAINFALL...



...NORTHERN FLORIDA / SOUTHEAST GEORGIA...

THERE IS AT LEAST SOME CONCERN FOR EXCESSIVE RAINFALL TO
OCCUR...OWING TO THE PRESENCE OF TROPICAL MOISTURE. THE 12Z
SOUNDING AT JACKSONVILLE MEASURED AN IMPRESSIVE 2.42 INCH
PRECIPITABLE WATER IN TANDEM WITH REASONABLY STEEP LAPSE RATES.
MEAN 0-6 KM WINDS WERE LIGHT THROUGHOUT THE NORTHERN HALF OF FL
AND SOUTHEAST GA...BUT CONCERN WAS LESS ALONG THE WEST COAST OF
THE PENINSULA WHERE THE TAMPA BAY SOUNDING SHOWED LESS MOISTURE
AND POOR LAPSE RATES...AND THE TREND IN THE HRRR AND FSL
EXPERIMENTAL HRRR WAS TOWARD DIURNAL CONVECTION THAT WILL
PROPAGATE QUICKLY NORTHEASTWARD. THE POTENTIAL FOR SUSTAINED SLOW
MOVING CELLS...THEREFORE...APPEARS LIMITED TO FAR NORTHERN FL AND
SOUTHEAST GA...AT AN INFLECTION POINT IN THE MID LEVEL
FLOW...BETWEEN A WEAK UPPER LOW EXITING OFF THE COAST...AND THE
TROUGH OFF THE WEST COAST OF FL WHICH HAD ONCE BEEN ERIKA. HEAVY
RAIN MAY OCCUR HERE THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON...PRIOR TO THE ARRIVAL
OF MORE SWEEPING CONVECTION FROM THE PENINSULA. ALTHOUGH FORCING
AND INFLOW DO NOT NECESSARILY FAVOR TRAINING CELLS...A FEW RANDOM
CELL MERGERS IN THIS ANOMALOUSLY MOIST ENVIRONMENT COULD PRODUCE
INTENSE SHORT TERM RAIN RATES OVER 2.5 INCHES IN AN HOUR.

BURKE
$$




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