Quantitative Precipitation Forecast
Issued by NWS

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000
FOUS30 KWBC 181827
QPFERD

EXCESSIVE RAINFALL DISCUSSION
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
226 PM EDT FRI APR 18 2014

...VALID 18Z FRI APR 18 2014 - 00Z SUN APR 20 2014...
...REFERENCE AWIPS GRAPHIC UNDER...DAY 1 EXCESSIVE RAINFALL...


SLIGHT RISK OF RAINFALL EXCEEDING FFG TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM
85 ESE HXD 65 ESE SSI 10 E SGJ 35 NE VVG 10 E OCF 20 WNW OCF
20 ESE CTY 25 NE CTY 10 SE VAD 20 NNE ABY 35 N ABY 35 SW WRB MCN
25 E MLJ 15 NW OGB 25 ESE SSC 20 SE FLO 15 S CPC 10 E SUT
75 SSE MYR 85 SE CHS 85 ESE HXD.

SLIGHT RISK OF RAINFALL EXCEEDING FFG TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM
20 S ALX TOI 35 NNE CEW 10 N CEW 15 NNE NSE 10 S GZH 15 NNW MXF
25 WSW ALX 10 SW ALX 20 S ALX.


NORTH FLORIDA INTO THE COASTAL SOUTHEAST

THE PREVIOUS EXCESSIVE RAINFALL POTENTIAL OUTLOOK AREA WAS CHANGED
TO REFLECT THE EVOLUTION OF THE ACTIVE CONVECTION AHEAD OF THE
DEVELOPING CLOSED LOW OVER THE CENTRAL GULF COASTAL REGION.
SATELLITE LOOPS CONTINUE TO SHOW WEAKENING OF THE CONVECTION THAT
HAD BEEN ENHANCING OVER THE EASTERN GULF---WITH THE EMPHASIS FOR
SUSTAINED HEAVY PRECIPITATION SHIFTING FARTHER TO THE NORTH AND
EAST FROM NORTH FLORIDA INTO THE SOUTHEAST.  THIS AREA WILL HAVE
THE STRONGEST INFLOW OF ABOVE AVERAGE PWS AHEAD OF THE CLOSED LOW
AND REMAIN IN A FAVORABLE UPPER DIFFLUENT REGION AHEAD OF THE
CLOSED LOW.  HOWEVER---WITH THIS INFLOW AREA EXPECTED TO REMAIN
PROGRESSIVE TO THE NORTHEAST THIS AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT---AND FFG
VALUES HIGH FROM NORTH FLORIDA INTO THE COASTAL SOUTHEAST---DO NOT
BELIEVE THERE WILL BE WIDESPREAD RUNOFF ISSUES---WITH ONLY A
SLIGHT RISK DEPICTED.  PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS OF .50-1"+ IN AN HOUR
AND TOTALS OF 2-3"+ POSSIBLE.

SOUTH CENTRAL AL INTO THE WESTERN FL PANHANDLE

A SMALLER SLIGHT RISK AREA WAS DEPICTED OVER SOUTH CENTRAL AL INTO
THE WESTERN PANHANDLE OF FLORIDA WHERE THE WESTERN PORTION OF THE
CURRENT SOUTHEASTERN  PRECIPITATION AREA HAS SLOWED IN A COMMA
HEAD PRECIPITATION FEATURE.  THE NAM AND THE LAST FEW RUNS OF THE
HI RES ARW/NMM ARE SHOWING THIS CURRENT AREA REMAINING SLOW MOVING
OR NEARLY STATIONARY THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE AFTERNOON BEFORE
BECOMING MORE PROGRESSIVE AFTER 0000 UTC SAT. PERSISTENT MODERATE
TO HEAVY RAINS IN THIS COMMA HEAD FEATURE MAY PRODUCE SHORT TERM
PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS OF 2-3"+ AND ISOLATED RUNOFF ISSUES.

ORAVEC
$$




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