Quantitative Precipitation Forecast
Issued by NWS

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FOUS30 KWBC 251837
QPFERD

EXCESSIVE RAINFALL DISCUSSION
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
137 PM EST TUE NOV 25 2014

...VALID 18Z TUE NOV 25 2014 - 00Z THU NOV 27 2014...
...REFERENCE AWIPS GRAPHIC UNDER...DAY 1 EXCESSIVE RAINFALL...


...NORTH-CENTRAL FLORIDA/EASTERN NORTH CAROLINA...

CONCERNS REMAIN FOR LOCALIZED RUNOFF PROBLEMS OVER PORTIONS OF
NORTH CENTRAL FLORIDA IN THE AXIS OF MUCH ABOVE AVERAGE PWAT
VALUES EXPECTED TO STRETCH ALONG AND AHEAD OF A WELL-DEFINED
FRONTAL ZONE DRAPED SW/NE OVER THE FL PENINSULA. THE MODELS ARE IN
STRONG AGREEMENT ON A SURFACE LOW DEVELOPING OVER THE EASTERN GULF
OF MEXICO LATER TODAY THAT WILL TRAVERSE THE NORTH-CENTRAL PORTION
OF THE FL PENINSULA THIS EVENING AND THEN LIFT NORTHEAST OVERNIGHT
AND EARLY WEDNESDAY JUST OFFSHORE THE SOUTHEAST AND MID-ATLANTIC
COASTS. FAVORABLE RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION JET DYNAMICS COUPLED WITH
STRENGTHENING WARM AIR/MOISTURE TRANSPORT AHEAD OF THE DEVELOPING
SURFACE LOW WILL FAVOR MULTIPLE LINEAR BANDS OF STRONG
CONVECTION...WHICH WILL HAVE THE POTENTIAL FOR TRAINING. THE
HI-RES MODELS INCLUDING THE 12Z ARW/NMMB AND ESP THE 12Z
NAM-CONEST FAVOR LOCALIZED AREAS OF VERY HEAVY RAINFALL THROUGH
THE EVENING OVER NORTH-CENTRAL FL...BUT THE ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED
TO DEVELOP FARTHER NORTHEAST UP ALONG THE COAST...AND THE GUIDANCE
SUPPORTS INTENSE CONVECTIVE BANDS ALSO IMPACTING EASTERN NC AND
ESP THE OUTER BANKS LATER TONIGHT. EXPECT THE POTENTIAL FOR
LOCALIZED 3 TO 5 INCH AMOUNTS...WITH ISOLATED HEAVIER AMOUNTS.
ORGANIZED FLASH FLOODING IS NOT ANTICIPATED AT THIS TIME AND ESP
WITH VERY HIGH FFG VALUES...BUT SOME LOCALIZED RUNOFF PROBLEMS
WILL BE POSSIBLE.

ORRISON

$$




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