Quantitative Precipitation Forecast
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FOUS30 KWBC 261604
QPFERD

EXCESSIVE RAINFALL DISCUSSION
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
1204 PM EDT THU MAY 26 2016

...VALID 15Z THU MAY 26 2016 - 12Z FRI MAY 27 2016...
...REFERENCE AWIPS GRAPHIC UNDER...DAY 1 EXCESSIVE RAINFALL...


SLIGHT RISK OF RAINFALL EXCEEDING FFG TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM
20 WNW E29 20 SSW DYS 10 NNE MWL 20 WNW TYR 20 E OCH 30 N BPT
10 NE GLS 25 SSE PKV 45 N ALI 30 WNW UVA 20 WNW E29.

SLIGHT RISK OF RAINFALL EXCEEDING FFG TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM
20 ESE FSM 20 SW JLN 35 WNW PPF 35 SW ICT GBD 35 WSW HJH
20 WNW CSQ 30 W EOK 25 WNW COU 25 E TBN 10 WNW HSB 35 SSW EHR
35 SW HOP 10 SSW OLV 35 NE ELD 30 S MWT 20 ESE FSM.


1500 UTC UPDATE...

MADE A FEW COSMETIC CHANGES TO THE PREVIOUS OUTLOOK AREA...MOST
NOTABLY TO BROADEN THE SLIGHT RISK AREA ACROSS TX TO ACCOUNT FOR
THE ACTIVITY BLOSSOMING OVER CENTRAL AND EASTERN TX LATE THIS
MORNING (WITHIN AREA OF MOST FAVORABLE THERMODYNAMICS PER THE
AVAILABLE DEEP-LAYER INSTABILITY ALONG THE AXIS OF MAXIMUM PW --
TO THE TUNE OF 2-2.25" PER THE LATEST GPS OBSERVATIONS). ALSO
INCLUDED AREAS FARTHER WEST (TO JUST WEST OF 100W) TO ACCOUNT FOR
THE ACTIVITY THAT WILL FIRE ALONG THE DRY LINE LATER ON AHEAD OF
SHORTWAVES EJECTING OUT OF NORTHERN MEXICO. WHILE MORE LIKELY TO
BE ISOLATED-SCATTERED IN COVERAGE THAN OTHERWISE...THE LATEST CAM
GUIDANCE (INCLUDING THE SSEO NEIGHBORHOOD PROBABILITIES) CONTINUES
TO SHOW THE ENHANCED RISK OF ISOLATED SHORT TERM RUNOFF ISSUES.

HURLEY

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION BELOW...


...EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE CENTRAL PLAINS INTO THE MID/LOWER MS
VALLEY...

OUTFLOW FROM EARLY MORNING MCS PUSHING EWD ACRS IA/MO IS EXPECTED
TO SETTLE SWD ACRS SRN MO AND ERN KS THIS MRNG.  AS LOW PRES
ORGANIZES ACRS WRN KS THIS AFTN IN RESPONSE TO HEIGHT FALLS
PUSHING EWD FROM THE SOUTHWEST...INCREASING SLY 85H FLOW OF 30 TO
40 KTS WILL HELP BRING INCREASING MOIST/UNSTABLE AIR INTO THE
OUTFLOW BNDRY WHICH WILL LIKELY BE THE EFFECTIVE FRONT FOR
CONVECTIVE INITIATION THIS AFTN/EVENING..LIKELY STARTING ACRS CNTL
KS BEFORE EXPANDING TOWARD ERN KS/WRN MO THUR EVEN/NIGHT.  HAVE
FOLLOWED THE LEAD OF 00Z HI RES GUIDANCE...BUT SLIGHTLY AWAY FROM
THE FARTHER SOUTH ARW...IN BREAKING OUT A SECONDARY STG CONVECTIVE
DVLPMENT LATE THUR AND THUR EVENING ACRS CNTL/ERN KS PROPAGATING
EWD INTO MO WHICH SHOULD BE AIDED BY DECENT UPR JET COUPLET. STG
FORCING COUPLED WITH HIGH PWS AND PSBL TRAINING COULD LEAD TO
WIDESPREAD 2 TO 3 INCH RAINS ACRS ERN KS/WRN MO WITH ISOLD HEAVIER
AMOUNTS NEAR 5 INCHES. THE GREATEST THREAT FOR FLASH FLOOD AT THIS
TIME APPEARS TO BE FROM CNTL KS EWD INTO ERN KS AND ADJACENT AREAS
OF WRN MO AND WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR THE AREA FOR PSBL UPGRADE
TO MDT RISK LATER.  ALSO EXTENDED SLIGHT RISK AREA SEWD INTO NRN
ARKANSAS AS ALL MODELS DVLP A S/WV THAT IS EXPECTED TO LIFT NEWD
FROM SRN TX TODAY AHEAD OF THE MAIN UPR TROF AXIS.  FORCING FROM
THIS IMPULSE OVER THE MSTR RICH AIRMASS WILL LIKELY SUPPORT
WIDESPREAD .50 TO 1+ PLUS RAINS...WITH SOME HI RES MODELS
SUGGESTING POTNL FOR EMBDD HEAVIER RAINS UP TO 3 INCHES OR MORE IN
A FEW HRS.  FF GUIDANCE VALUES ARE MODERATELY LOW OVER NRN
ARKANSAS AND THUS SOME OF THE HEAVIER EXPECTED RAINS COULD APCH OR
EVEN EXCEED THE LOWER FF GUIDANCE VALUES.


...CNTL/SRN TEXAS...

A SLIGHT RISK OF RAINFALL EXCEEDING FLASH FLOOD GUIDANCE EXISTS
FOR PARTS CNTL/SRN TX. HEIGHT FALLS PUSHING OUT OF THE SRN HIGH
PLAINS WILL HELP TRIGGER STORMS ALONG DRY LINE THAT WILL LIKELY
INCREASE IN RAINFALL INTENSITY AS THEY DVLPG DOWNSTREAM INTO
GREATER THAN 1.75 INCH PWS ESTABLISHED OVER MUCH OF CNTL/SRN TX.
SOME OF THESE STORMS WILL LIKELY ORGANIZE INTO HEAVY RAIN
PRODUCING CLUSTERS/LINES AS THEY ADVANCE E/SEWD ACRS THE REGION
THIS AFTN/TONIGHT.  UNCERTAINTY REMAINS WITH REGARD TO TIMING AND
PLACEMENT OF HEAVIER RAIN AMOUNTS HERE BUT THERE SUFFICIENT
SUPPORT FROM BOTH THE WRF ARW AND NAM CONEST AS WELL AS SEVERAL
GLOBAL RUNS TO SUGGEST EXPECTED RAINS FROM SOME OF THE STGR TSTMS
COULD EXCEED FLASH FLOOD GUIDANCE VALUES IN SPOTS.

...CO...

THE ONE AREA WHICH SHOWS SOME DECENT HEAVY RAIN PLACEMENT IS BACK
ACRS CO WITH COMBINATION OF UPSLOPE AND COMMA HEAD DVLPMENT AS UPR
LOW MOVES OUT OF THE SOUTHWEST TOWARD SRN CO.  THE 00Z NAM TRENDED
WWD WITH CONSENSUS TOWARD AN AREA OF 1 TO 1.5+ AREAL AVG AMOUNTS
THROUGH CNTL CO MTNS/FOOTHILLS AND ADJACENT PLAINS WHICH LOOKS
REASONABLE GIVEN EXPECTED TRACK OF MID LEVEL CIRC.  MODELS SHOW
SATURATED SOUNDING THROUGH A FAIRLY DEEP LAYER DVLPG BACK THROUGH
THE CNTL CO FOOTHILLS WITH WEAK MUCAPE ENVIRONMENT..SUGGESTING
SOME EMBDD CONVECTIVE ELEMENTS COULD OCCUR.  SOME HI RES GUIDANCE
SUGGESTS ISOLD 3 INCH MAX AMOUNTS MAY DVLP..SO COULD SEE SOME
ISOLD RUNOFF ISSUES SHOULD THESE HIER AMOUNTS MATERIALIZE.

SULLIVAN
$$




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