Quantitative Precipitation Forecast
Issued by NWS

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000
FXUS04 KWBC 282146
QPFPFD

QUANTITATIVE PRECIPITATION FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
445 PM EST FRI NOV 28 2014


FINAL DAY 1...DAY 2 AND DAY 3 QPF DISCUSSION
VALID NOV 29/0000 UTC THRU DEC 02/0000 UTC
REFERENCE AWIPS GRAPHICS UNDER...PRECIP ACCUM - 24HR


DAY 1

18Z UPDATE...
SOME MINOR INCREASES IN QPF AMOUNTS WERE MADE IN THE NRN
SEIRRAS..OTHERWISE...NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES WERE MADE TO PRELIM
GUIDANCE.

...PACIFIC NORTHWEST/NORTHERN CALIFORNIA INTO THE NORTHERN
ROCKIES...

A MID/UPPER LEVEL NORTHERN STREAM TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED FRONTAL
ZONE EXTENDING NE-SW ACROSS BRITISH COLUMBIA AND JUST OFFSHORE THE
PACIFIC NORTHWEST WILL PIVOT SLOWLY SOUTHEAST INTO THE PACIFIC
NORTHWEST THROUGH TONIGHT AND THEN CROSS THE NORTHERN ROCKIES ON
SATURDAY. A RATHER DEEP SOUTHWEST FETCH OF PACIFIC
MOISTURE/ONSHORE FLOW AHEAD OF THE TROUGH WILL CONTINUE OVER WA/OR
THROUGH THIS EVENING...WITH THE AXIS THEN SHIFTING GRADUALLY
SOUTHEASTWARD BY SATURDAY TO INCLUDE A LARGE PORTION OF NORTHERN
CALIFORNIA AND ADJACENT AREAS OF THE NORTHERN GREAT BASIN AND
NORTHERN ROCKIES. THE PWATS ASSOCIATED WITH THE DEEPER PACIFIC
MOISTURE FEED ARE GENERALLY ON THE ORDER OF AN INCH OR SO WHICH IS
ABOUT 1.5 TO 2 STANDARD DEVIATIONS ABOVE NORMAL...HOWEVER...THE
STRONGER DRIVER OF THE HEAVIER PRECIPITATION TO THIS POINT HAS
BEEN THE ROBUST SOUTHWEST LOW TO MID LEVEL JET/ONSHORE FLOW AND
CORRESPONDING 850/700MB MOISTURE TRANSPORT. THE MODELS HOWEVER
SUGGEST THAT THE LOW LEVEL JET ENERGY AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING
COLD FRONT WILL WEAKEN AS THE MOISTURE PLUME SETTLES SOUTH AND
EAST. SO...THIS WILL TEND TO FAVOR A SLACKENING OF THE
PRECIPITATION RATES WITH TIME. NEVERTHELESS THE MODELS FAVOR
MODERATE TO HEAVY OROGRAPHICALLY ENHANCED RAIN AND HIGHER
ELEVATION SNOWFALL THROUGHOUT A LARGE PORTION OF THE NORTHWEST
U.S....WITH THE HEAVIEST PRECIPITATION EXPECTED FOR THE COASTAL
RANGES OF SOUTHWEST OR/NORTHWEST CA WHERE WATER EQUIVS OF 2 TO 3
INCHES ARE EXPECTED WITH ISOLATED HEAVIER AMOUNTS. LESSER AMOUNTS
AVERAGING BETWEEN 1 TO 2 INCHES ARE EXPECTED ELSEWHERE INCLUDING
THE NORTHERN ROCKIES. WPC QPF LEANED RATHER STRONGLY TOWARD THE
HIGHER SREF GUIDANCE WITH AMOUNTS TWEAKED FOR TOPOGRAPHY. PLEASE
REFER TO THE QPFHSD FOR FURTHER DETAILS REGARDING THE SNOWFALL
POTENTIAL FOR THE HIGHER TERRAIN.


...UPPER MIDWEST/GREAT LAKES...

A CONSENSUS OF THE LATEST MODELS CONTINUES TO FAVOR A STREAK OF
WARM ADVECTION PRECIPITATION...MAINLY LIGHT SNOW...ACROSS THE
UPPER MIDWEST AND INTO THE GREAT LAKES REGION THIS PERIOD...WITH
PERHAPS SOME VERY LIGHT FREEZING RAIN ALONG THE SOUTHERN EDGE OF
THE PRECIPITATION SHIELD INVOLVING THE LOWER GREAT LAKES. THE
HEAVIER PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS THOUGH WILL BE FAVORED FARTHER NORTH
ACROSS SOUTHERN CANADA WHERE ISENTROPIC LIFT WILL BE STRONGER.


DAYS 2-3...


...WEST COAST/GREAT BASIN/NORTHERN ROCKIES...

A COMBINATION OF 2 SHORTWAVE SYSTEMS WILL BE INFLUENCING THE QPF
PATTERNS ON DAYS 2/3....LATE SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY
EVENING. A THIRD SYSTEM WILL DROP SOUTHEASTWARD ALONG THE
SOUTHWEST CANADIAN COAST.

A SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVING EASTWARD ACROSS CENTRAL CALIFORNIA ON
EARLY SUNDAY WILL BRING PACIFIC MOISTURE INLAND ACROSS MUCH OF
CENTRAL AND NORTHERN CALIFORNIA...ESPECIALLY ON SUNDAY. A STRONG
SHORTWAVE TROUGH OVER THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST ON SATURDAY NIGHT WILL
SHEAR EASTWARD ON SUNDAY HELPING SPREAD MOISTURE EASTWARD ACROSS
THE NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE GREAT BASIN INTO PARTS OF THE
NORTHERN PLAINS AS ARCTIC AIR SPILLS SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE PACIFIC
NORTHWEST ACROSS THE NORTHERN ROCKIES.

MUCH OF THE QPF ON SUNDAY WILL BE LOCATED WITHIN THE CONFLUENT
ENTRANCE REGION OF A DEVELOPING JET STREAK AND WITHIN A POORLY
DEFINED EXIT REGION OF A JET ASSOCIATED WITH THE TROUGH MOVING
INLAND ACROSS CALIFORNIA. THE SHARP NORTHERN EDGE OF THE
PRECIPITATION SHIELD IS RELATED TO THE SINKING MOTIONS ASSOCIATED
WITH THE CONFLUENCE.

THE 12Z ECMWF HAS BEEN TRENDING MORE TOWARD THE 12Z GFS IN THE
WEST...WITH THE HEAVIER QPF ARRIVING LATER ON DAY 2 THAN INDICATED
IN THE EARLIER EC RUN.  HOWEVER...TOTAL AMOUNTS FOR DAY 1 ARE
SIMILAR IRRESPECTIVE OF TIMING DIFFERENCES WITH AREAL AVERAGED
TOTALS OF AROUND .5 TO 1 INCHES BUT HIGHER AMOUNTS ANTICIPATED
ALONG WINDWARD SLOPES.  WITH MOISTURE STREAMING EASTWARD ACROSS
THE GREAT BASIN INTO THE NORTHERN ROCKIES...SIGNIFICANT QPF
AMOUNTS ARE EXPECTED TO FALL AS SNOW IN PORTIONS OF SW MONTANA AND
NORTHWEST WYOMING.  SEE THE WINTER WEATHER GRAPHICS/DISCUSSION FOR
MORE DETAILS.

THERE ARE MORE SIGNIFICANT DIFFERENCES BETWEEN THE ECMWF/UKMET AND
THE GFS/NAM FOR EXAMPLE ON DAY 3/SUNDAY EVENING INTO MONDAY...
WITH THE FORMER MORE SUPPRESSED WITH QPF IN THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST
AND THE LATTER FARTHER NORTH.  HAVE TRENDED MORE TOWARD THE GFS
SOLUTION TO BRING PRECIPITATION NORTHWARD AS THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH
DROPPING SOUTH ALONG THE SOUTHWESTERN CANADIAN COAST IS EXPECTED
TO BRING PRECIPITATION BACK TOWARD THE COASTAL AREAS OF THE
PACIFIC NORTHWEST. QPF AMOUNTS DIMINISH ACROSS THE GREAT
BASIN/ROCKIES AS THE NORTHERN TROUGH CONTINUES EASTWARD ACROSS THE
NORTHERN TIER AND MOISTURE IS LIMITED MOVING EASTWARD FROM THE
PACIFIC.  HOWEVER...QPF INCREASES SIGNIFICANTLY FROM CENTRAL AND
NORTHERN CALIFORNIA INTO COASTAL OREGON AND WASHINGTON AS THE NEXT
SHORTWAVE SYSTEM BRINGS MOISTURE EASTWARD.

...SOUTHERN PLAINS/MISSISSIPPI VALLEY/OHIO VALLEY/NORTHEAST...

SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW AND WARM ADVECTION WILL FOLLOW ON THE HEELS OF
A RETREATING COLD AIR MASS MOVING OFF THE EAST COAST.  MOISTURE
WILL BE VERY SLOW TO INCREASE WITHIN THE SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW OUT
AHEAD OF AN ADVANCING COLD FRONT MOVING INTO THE CENTER OF THE
COUNTRY ON EARLY SUNDAY INTO EARLY MONDAY/DAY 2.  MOSTLY LIGHT
SHOWERS/RAIN WITH AMOUNTS NEARLY UNIFORMLY LESS THAN .25 INCHES
THROUGH SUNDAY EVENING.

AS COLDER AIR CONTINUES TO ADVANCE SOUTH AND EASTWARD...QPF
INCREASES AS WELL THOUGH HEAVY PRECIPITATION IS NOT EXPECTED WITH
FRONTAL PASSAGE BUT ON DAY 3...MAXIMUM AMOUNTS INCREASE TO BETWEEN
.25 AND .5 INCHES AND SINCE MUCH OF THE QPF WILL BE ALONG AND
BEHIND THE FRONT...SOME FROZEN QPF IS POSSIBLE.  SEE WINTER
WEATHER DISCUSSION/GRAPHICS.

ORRISON/SULLIVAN/KOCIN


GRAPHICS AVAILABLE ON THE WEB AT WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV

24HR QP VT 30/00Z
 0.01 536045 536029 537021 536014 536997 532986 525962 522952
      522945 524939 525928 525913 523901 523893 524886 528869
      530859 531849 531841 532835 531827 530820 529812 527806
      523794 520786 514778 508773 503772 498772 492771 486767
      483766 480765 475766 471768 466769 458767 452765 447765
      443769 440769 440762 437749 436746 434744 432747 431751
      431760 431763 429761 426757 423754 421749 417748 414749
      413753 414760 415769 418780 422787 423791 419792 416795
      415798 413805 414806 416818 417822 416825 423875 425879
      428881 431885 433890 437900 445904 447911 452911 454914
      457914 458917 460921 463929 467935 472940 478944 482954
      483959 484967 485972 485980 487988 486996 485002 485008
      486016 486025 484025 483021 483014 481011 477009 475006
      472008 468016 466024 462033 458040 454059 443072 446078
      449083 450085 449088 446092 442091 438091 434093 426088
      423091 423098 417104 416109 413113 411112 409107 406111
      404114 405118 412121 417127 418131 418137 418140 420142
      423143 425139 427134 432126 434123 439120 441124 441129
      440131 432138 429145 425154 424158 422157 420152 417152
      416158 412173 410193 408196 406200 404203 401201 399198
      395196 393194 390194 387194 380189 374188 370190 370196
      370202 368207 364210 361213 359217 355226 355234 355240
      357250 361256 365257 368256 375255 378255 382256 385259
      389258 397259 404263 405271 410278 418275 426270 433263
      438258 441255 445254 454253 464254 468255 471254 480257
      489257 494252 493245 492243 494241 496240 504242 506238
      505234 506227 505221 505215 501211 500197 500193 503192
      507191 511190 514186 518183 520180 521167 518156 516145
      516141 516135 517122 518111 520106 520097 522092 523085
      529066 531059 533053 536045
 0.01 477200 479193 478187 476183 474186 470190 466192 463193
      461198 462203 466205 470203 473201 477200 477200
 0.01 484057 484055 483053 481052 480054 480057 480059 480062
      479064 481067 482065 482062 483060 484057
 0.01 485042 485040 484037 483040 483042 484045 485042
 0.01 393860 392853 390851 386852 383856 378862 373871 368877
      364885 363890 364894 368897 371896 374891 376888 381880
      386874 389870 391866 393860
 0.25 505163 507155 507146 506140 504135 499128 495120 494113
      491108 488106 484106 479106 474104 470103 465103 459102
      455099 451096 448094 443096 438094 434097 432096 430098
      430102 428104 424107 422111 419115 419117 427122 430122
      433119 436116 442117 445120 449119 455114 459111 462112
      467115 468122 467128 465132 457134 454138 451143 447144
      444144 441142 438140 435142 433148 432154 446170 449178
      448182 448188 453189 457187 461185 464181 464177 463173
      458171 459166 463165 465171 468174 474175 479176 483177
      490180 495175 500172 503168 505163
 0.25 515009 515988 514976 513968 510960 507953 503949 502952
      501957 500967 500975 501988 501993 500998 499018 498031
      499040 500045 502048 505043 509035 511030 513020 514011
      515009
 0.25 487215 486211 482208 474208 468211 462211 458212 453212
      448210 444212 430209 426206 422204 420207 422211 423214
      422217 419216 416213 406210 399204 394200 389199 381194
      378196 377203 377208 375214 370217 366220 364224 364233
      365237 368240 373244 408254 412257 413262 415265 418265
      428254 435249 441246 447243 453240 456239 459234 461231
      465227 470223 472221 476221 484220 487215
 0.25 503862 501856 499852 497840 492833 485828 480829 477832
      475836 474840 475855 475870 477875 479878 487874 490871
      494869 501865 503862
 0.25 496932 497929 497926 496924 496921 495920 495919 494917
      493916 492916 490914 489912 487914 488917 489919 490922
      491923 491924 492927 494929 495932 496932 496932
 0.25 401223 400222 399221 397222 396222 397223 398224 400224
      401223
 0.50 501150 500143 498138 493130 489127 485124 480124 477125
      472127 471136 472141 474143 477143 479144 480146 476147
      471146 468144 462142 458144 455147 452149 446148 442146
      439143 435145 434152 436157 439160 444161 448165 450168
      453166 456162 459158 462159 464161 466166 469170 489170
      492166 495162 500154 501150
 0.50 459222 459218 457216 451213 442215 430216 423222 425227
      423229 421228 418228 415228 415224 415217 412214 408214
      401207 396203 390201 382197 380199 380202 382209 382215
      381220 376226 374232 376237 381239 393244 405248 412250
      415253 419253 424252 427250 436244 440240 441234 443231
      446230 451227 458223 459222
 0.50 463178 463177 461176 459176 458177 457178 456179 456182
      457183 459183 460182 462181 462180 463178
 0.50 452112 452108 451105 449102 444099 441098 437098 434101
      432106 431111 435113 440113 444116 447116 450114 452112
 0.50 404226 404224 404222 403221 402220 401220 399219 397219
      395218 394218 392218 391218 391220 391223 392225 392226
      394227 396228 398228 399228 401228 401227 403226 404226
 1.00 490144 491142 492140 491137 489135 488134 488133 486132
      484132 483132 482133 481135 481137 482138 484139 485139
      487141 488144 489144 490144 490144
 1.00 478159 475158 473156 470154 468152 466149 464147 461147
      460151 462153 463155 467156 468159 470162 473162 475161
      478159
 1.00 449222 447219 443218 438218 435220 431221 427222 426225
      429229 432231 435230 438228 441227 444225 448223 449222
 1.00 429243 430235 427233 422234 415232 411231 408232 404235
      400237 399240 403241 409243 416246 421248 425246 429243
 1.00 403216 403214 401211 399209 397207 394205 392204 389203
      387205 388210 389212 393213 394214 398216 401217 403216
 1.50 428242 428239 425237 421236 418235 414235 412235 412239
      414241 417243 419244 421245 423245 426244 428242
 1.50 397212 397210 395208 393208 392207 390208 391209 393211
      394212 395212 396212 397212
 2.00 426242 426240 424239 423238 421238 419237 418237 417239
      417240 418242 419242 420243 422244 424244 426243 426242

24HR QP VT 01/00Z
 0.01 544804 544798 542791 540787 540782 541776 534748 534741
      533737 528727 514715 511712 507711 500714 492695 489687
      487683 483682 481678 478668 474664 455675 452678 448680
      444685 439683 422692 419695 417700 416704 417712 422722
      423727 425732 430741 436749 428755 421757 416759 413762
      410768 399786 390806 389810 386815 383824 377834 370839
      365840 363843 360847 357849 352853 351857 351862 353876
      356888 356894 358899 358905 358909 357911 351912 347913
      342922 340927 336931 332934 327936 323939 320942 316945
      312949 307955 303962 295977 294981 293987 299992 305993
      310992 315990 318988 323982 329977 332975 336971 342964
      352945 359927 361923 362919 366918 370918 375916 383909
      390904 396899 399897 402892 408887 410883 412879 416872
      419865 423854 425848 428844 430843 433844 436847 448846
      451846 451850 446853 442863 443865 446865 450867 454871
      459879 464888 465902 465915 467919 467925 471935 472939
      473944 469952 462976 460989 456002 455010 453011 450012
      446014 443018 438025 436029 433035 405056 400060 395066
      394071 396074 402077 405078 405081 404089 401103 396110
      397115 398119 398123 396138 393149 388160 385172 384178
      381181 378184 373183 364182 362186 363191 362196 360198
      359196 353190 348183 343175 343170 340169 340174 334173
      325174 324176 328181 331184 334189 339192 341197 331210
      325216 323221 322226 321247 322252 326254 336255 344258
      351264 356273 360276 364276 369275 373272 380265 386260
      390257 395255 404254 410249 421231 424228 428228 436231
      450226 453225 456222 455218 451216 443218 436220
 0.01 436220 430224 428225 427223 421223 420221 420216 429195
      432188 436182 441171 446167 450168 454166 457166 459168
      459172 459177 454181 451185 453188 457185 461184 464179
      464174 465164 468157 472154 476149 478146 479137 479131
      476126 474118 475114 476111 477106 478102 479094 481089
      482081 484065 485044 486040 487038 488027 488020 490017
      490012 492007 492997 495982 494965 493959 492952 489949
      484946 481939 484934 487927 487919 490906 490898 492891
      494875 495871 496868 500863 505854 511846 514843 518843
      521843 524844 530838 535828 537821 540815 544804
 0.25 511783 511776 510770 508761 504752 502749 500747 489744
      485738 482737 480740 477757 473778 473789 475800 476813
      480817 493812 495809 500807 504803 508794 510786 511783
 0.25 459113 459106 459101 454093 453087 450088 447092 443092
      440090 436091 435093 432093 429091 429096 430100 430104
      425105 423110 428111 433114 438113 443115 446117 455116
      459115 459113
 0.25 450078 450076 449075 448073 446070 445069 443068 441069
      440072 441074 443076 444077 446078 448078 449078 450078
 0.25 414224 417213 418208 417204 416200 413198 408194 416187
      418178 417175 415174 411175 408178 407181 405182 403185
      403189 405196 403198 400197 397196 394196 383190 376191
      372193 374199 373203 370206 365207 359210 354213 350219
      333239 332242 333246 339247 351245 362240 374238 388237
      394236 399232 408229 414224
 0.25 420164 420157 418154 415154 411152 407152 404154 402157
      406156 409154 412154 412157 414162 416162 419165 420164
 0.25 423115 424112 423110 421111 419112 417112 415112 414112
      412112 410112 408111 407112 408114 408115 409117 410117
      411118 413119 415119 417118 418118 420117 421117 422116
      423115
 0.50 443108 442107 440106 439107 440109 442109 443108
 0.50 438110 437108 435108 433109 435110 437110 438110
 0.50 410221 410215 407211 401205 397202 392201 386196 384194
      381194 377195 377205 373209 370210 362211 355218 351226
      345232 345238 348239 355236 362233 379231 385231 388229
      390218 394219 393222 396226 400225 407223 410221
 1.00 384202 383202 382201 381202 382202 383203 384202
 1.00 374223 374219 372217 369217 366218 364219 362220 359221
      358223 358226 361227 363227 366225 369224 371224 374223


24HR QP VT 02/00Z
 0.01 521816 522811 521805 519793 519787 517784 516772 512752
      508736 505726 501716 496700 492691 491687 488685 476694
      473695 471698 465697 460701 455706 450709 448716 445722
      441722 439720 435719 432721 428728 426733 426736 423739
      420740 421724 422720 422715 420704 416702 413704 410706
      407712 404718 399732 398740 395747 395751 394755 390764
      386776 380791 376798 374802 372804 357826 343847 337858
      332872 328880 325887 317902 310911 306917 302923 297928
      294934 288944 277969 271984 271995 274003 277008 283010
      286009 288007 292001 304998 310994 313988 321975 325971
      331971 339969 345965 352963 357959 367952 377943 381938
      384932 389918 393903 400889 404881 406874 406868 407864
      410856 417844 425832 432822 437818 440816 444816 447819
      448822 449828 448833 449842 446848 439853 431855 429857
      429864 435867 442866 448864 455862 458861 459865 461872
      462883 463895 464903 465916 467924 469925 471922 472913
      474904 478894 481887 486882 486862 485854 485850 485843
      483836 479832 473827 470821 467813 466809 468807 470808
      474808 478810 483809 486806 490805 496804 500804 502806
      509810 516814 519819 521816
 0.01 470230 471224 471218 471210 469206 468201 468198 469196
      473185 475168 475161 474156 472150 469146 466142 462138
      460138 457142 455147 454150 451150 447148 444145 443139
      445134 452109 454104 454098 452095 447093 444091 439091
      436093 431092 429089 426090 425096 427101 428103 425105
      422105 420101 421092 425079 426068 425061 426054 426038
      426031 426026 422018 404014 399037 399043 397048 391055
      391059 386061 384063 385068 396085 397089 397096 393107
      392113 390117 389130 386158 384166 382171 379176 375180
      373184 370183 365181 360182 358185 361188 368194 370199
      371204 366205 361203 356200 353196 348187 342170 341181
      341186 341193 346212 354218 354222 353224 350228 344233
      345236 351238 372243 376243 380245 386248 389251 391256
      392262 398269 406269 415268 425271 430272 433271 439264
      448261 451260 455256 460245 465239 470230
 0.01 431164 431161 431159 431157 431154 431153 429152 429151
      428149 426149 425150 425152 426153 426155 427158 426160
      428163 429166 431164
 0.01 421138 422136 422133 422131 422129 423126 423124 422121
      421119 420117 419118 418121 418123 418125 418128 417130
      417132 417135 417137 416139 418142 419140 420139 421138
 0.01 290803 288799 285796 278790 272787 269784 265782 256783
      252790 253802 255805 258808 261809 267810 272806 278805
      282807 287806 290803
 0.25 456234 455228 451225 446221 443218 440213 437211 433215
      430219 428224 426232 418237 415240 413248 416251 422254
      428256 432256 440249 448244 455236 456234
 0.25 470858 471855 470853 470851 470850 468848 468847 467848
      467851 467852 467853 467854 468856 468858 469859 470859
      470858
 0.25 414229 415222 414217 412213 409210 401205 393201 388200
      383197 379195 375196 377198 379203 382211 384216 384221
      392226 403230 409232 414229
 0.25 421787 420783 417781 411786 404788 396793 392797 387803
      384809 381818 376831 370847 363859 359866 358870 358876
      356885 353890 350897 348907 346914 345919 347921 355919
      358918 361916 368904 377891 385880 393865 398852 404836
      410822 416807 421787
 0.25 410066 409064 408063 407062 407061 405059 404060 403060
      403061 404063 405065 405066 407067 408068 410066
 0.50 403216 404214 402211 399208 395207 390205 385203 382200
      380199 381203 385206 388209 391211 396214 399216 403216
 0.50 392826 390825 389826 388827 388829 387830 387831 386834
      385834 385836 385838 384841 386842 387840 388840 389838
      389837 390835 391833 391831 392828 392826 392826

$$




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