Satellite Precipitation Estimates (TXUS20 KWBC)
Issued by NWS

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000
TXUS20 KNES 221706
SPENES
ZCZC NFDSPENES ALL
SPENES
ILZ000-MOZ000-IAZ000-
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SATELLITE PRECIPITATION ESTIMATES..DATE/TIME 07/22/14 1706Z
SATELLITE ANALYSIS BRANCH/NESDIS---NPPU---TEL.301-683-1404
LATEST DATA USED: GOES-13 1630Z  RUMINSKI
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LOCATION...ILLINOIS...MISSOURI...IOWA...
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ATTN WFOS...LOT...ILX...LSX...DVN...DMX...EAX...
ATTN RFCS...OHRFC...NCRFC...MBRFC...
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EVENT...ADDITIONAL CONVECTION DEVELOPING NEAR MO/IA/IL CONFLUENCE
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SATELLITE ANALYSIS AND TRENDS...MOST MODELS NOT HANDLING ONGOING CNVTN OUT
AHEAD OF FNTL BOUNDARY AT ALL. LATEST IMAGERY SHOWING NEW CELLS POPPING
FROM HENDERSON COUNTY IL TO SHELBY MO. AMS IS QUITE MOIST WITH TPW ARND
2" AND SFC TD`S IN M70S. BEST SFC MOISTURE CONVERGENCE IS HANGING BACK A
BIT TO THE W ALG FNTL BOUNDARY BUT OUTFLOW FROM CNVTN CREATING LOCALIZED
CONVERGENCE. MAIN CONCERN IS THAT APCHG WEAK SHORT WAVE IN SRN SD MAY HELP
OVERCOME CINH INDICATED IN MRNG RAOBS AND GOES DERIVED SOUNDINGS. ADL
SUPPORT IN WAY OF UPR LEVEL SW/NE DEFORMATION AXIS OVER RGN. GOES
SOUNDINGS ALSO SHOWING CAPES IN EXCESS OF 3000 J/KG ALG/AHEAD OF FNT.
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SHORT TERM OUTLOOK VALID 1700-0000Z...LOW CONFIDENCE FACTOR IN SHORT
TERM OUTLOOK...LACK OF SUPPORT IN MODEL GUIDANCE IS LIMITING CONFIDENCE
FACTOR. BUT ENOUGH INGREDIENTS IN PLACE TO WARRANT CONCERN FOR ADL
CNVTN TO DEVELOP THIS AFTN/EVE. HEAVY RAIN/FF THREAT EXPECTED TO BE
MARGINAL GIVEN HIGH FFG VALUES AND GENERALLY PROGRESSIVE NATURE OF
SYSTEM. HOWEVER..PSBLTY OF SOME TRAINING ALG SRN EDGE OF CNVTN WHICH MAY
ALIGN WITH LOW/MID LEVEL FLOW. THIS MOST LIKELY TO OCR IN CORRIDOR FROM
NE/E CENTRAL MO INTO CENTRAL IL.
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....NESDIS IS A MEMBER OF NWSCHAT (NESDISSATELLITEPRECIP)....
....NESDIS IS A MEMBER OF 12 PLANET....
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FOR QUESTIONS AND COMMENTS CONCERNING THE SATELLITE
PRECIPITATION MESSAGES AND GRAPHICS PLEASE EMAIL
SSDPrecip@noaa.gov
.
FOR PRECIP MESSAGES AND GRAPHICS ON THE WEB:
http://www.ospo.noaa.gov/Products/atmosphere/spe/
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FOR AUTOMATED SATELLITE PRECIPITATION ESTIMATES ON THE WEB:
http://www.star.nesdis.noaa.gov/smcd/emb/ff/CONUS.php
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LAT...LON 4159 9294 4153 8847 3924 8829 3912 9277
.
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