Severe Storm Outlook Narrative (AC)
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000
ACUS11 KWNS 200153
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 200153
ARZ000-MOZ000-OKZ000-TXZ000-200300-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0714
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0853 PM CDT SUN MAY 19 2013

AREAS AFFECTED...CNTRL-ERN OK

CONCERNING...TORNADO WATCH 182...

VALID 200153Z - 200300Z

THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR TORNADO WATCH 182 CONTINUES.

SUMMARY...ONLY MEAGER PROSPECTS FOR ADDITIONAL STORM DEVELOPMENT
EXIST S OF I-40...ESPECIALLY OVER S-CNTRL OK.

DISCUSSION...SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWS A DRYLINE EXTENDING FROM 15 MI
NNE SPS NNEWD TO 40 MI WNW PNC.  THE AIRMASS E OF THE DRYLINE IS
RATHER MOIST WITH UPPER 60S TO NEAR 70 DEG DEWPOINTS BENEATH VERY
STEEP MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES.  VISIBLE IMAGERY SHOWS LITTLE IF ANY
CUMULUS REMAINING ON THE DRYLINE FROM NEAR THE OKC METRO SWD TO THE
RED RIVER AS OF 0045Z.  AS BOUNDARY LAYER COOLING COMMENCES WITH THE
LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING...INCREASING CINH/CAPPING INVERSION WILL
SEEMINGLY LIMIT AND PROVE DETRIMENTAL FOR ADDITIONAL STORMS FROM
I-40 SWD.  AS A RESULT...COUNTIES OVER SRN OK MAY BEGIN TO BE
REMOVED FROM TORNADO WATCH 182 OVER THE NEXT HOUR.

FARTHER N OVER NERN OK AND N-CNTRL OK...A STRONG LOW LEVEL WIND
PROFILE WILL AT LEAST BE SUPPORTIVE OF AT LEAST SOME CONDITIONAL
TORNADIC THREAT IF STORMS CAN ACQUIRE ROBUST LOW LEVEL MESOCYCLONES.
A POSSIBLE WATCH REPLACEMENT COULD BE UTILIZED FOR NERN OK BEFORE
THE 04Z WATCH EXPIRATION TIME AS THIS AREA IS LOCATED FARTHER N AND
UNDER MORE INFLUENCE OF THE CYCLONICALLY CURVED UPPER JET.
CONVECTIVE TRENDS WILL CONTINUE TO BE MONITORED.

..SMITH.. 05/20/2013

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...SGF...SHV...TSA...FWD...OUN...

LAT...LON   34149868 36949773 36989462 34639446 33919535 33849730
            34149868
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