Severe Storm Outlook Narrative (AC)
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000
ACUS11 KWNS 230150
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 230150 COR
TXZ000-OKZ000-230415-

Mesoscale Discussion 0813
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0850 PM CDT Mon May 22 2017

Areas affected...Northwest and North-central Texas...Southwest
Oklahoma

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely

Valid 230150Z - 230415Z

CORRECTED FOR WORDING

Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent

SUMMARY...An isolated severe threat will likely continue for a
couple more hours across southwest Oklahoma and northwest to
north-central Texas. Isolated large hail and a few strong wind gusts
will be possible. Although weather watch issuance is not expected,
the area will continue to be monitored.

DISCUSSION...Several thunderstorms with some severe, are located
from near the Childress, Texas area east-northeastward to the
vicinity of Lawton, Oklahoma. These storms are located along an
outflow boundary in which surface dewpoints to the south of the
boundary range from the upper 50s F in northwest Texas to the lower
60s F across south-central Oklahoma and north-central Texas. This is
contributing to weak instability ahead of the boundary. In spite of
this, the Frederick WSR-88D VWP shows moderate deep-layer shear with
40 kt of westerly flow in the mid-levels. This combined with 700-500
mb lapse rates of around 7.5 C/km evident on the Amarillo 00Z
sounding, should be enough for storm rotation and isolated large
hail. The latest short-term model guidance suggests that this
convection will move east-southeastward across northwest Texas and
southern Oklahoma over the next couple of hours but weaken gradually
as instability decreases across the region later this evening.

..Broyles.. 05/23/2017

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...FWD...OUN...SJT...LUB...

LAT...LON   34819793 34559962 34210013 33609990 32469859 32989743
            34059704 34819793




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