Severe Storm Outlook Narrative (AC)
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000
ACUS11 KWNS 032236
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 032236
GAZ000-ALZ000-MSZ000-040000-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1293
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0536 PM CDT FRI JUL 03 2015

AREAS AFFECTED...PORTIONS OF CNTRL MS...CNTRL AL...AND FAR W-CNTRL
GA

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE

VALID 032236Z - 040000Z

PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...40 PERCENT

SUMMARY...ISOLATED STRONG TO DAMAGING WIND GUSTS REMAIN POSSIBLE
THROUGH THE EARLY EVENING. LARGE HAIL MAY ALSO OCCUR WITH ANY
DISCRETE STORMS. DEPENDING ON STORM COVERAGE AND INTENSITY OVER THE
NEXT SEVERAL HOURS...WW ISSUANCE IS POSSIBLE.

DISCUSSION...A CONVECTIVELY REINFORCED OUTFLOW BOUNDARY CURRENTLY
BISECTS THE MCD AREA FROM W TO E...LYING ROUGHLY ACROSS CNTRL MS
INTO CNTRL AL. A WARM...MOIST AIRMASS REMAINS IN PLACE OVER THE
REGION...WITH TEMPERATURES GENERALLY IN THE LOWER TO MID 80S AND
DEWPOINTS IN THE LOWER 70S TO MID 70S CONTRIBUTING TO MLCAPE OF
1500-2500 J/KG PER RAP MESOANALYSIS. ENHANCED MID-LEVEL FLOW OF
35-45 KT PRESENT ON AREA VWPS SUGGESTS CONVECTION DEVELOPING ALONG
THE OUTFLOW BOUNDARY MAY ACQUIRE SUFFICIENT ORGANIZATION TO SUPPORT
MULITCELL AND OCCASIONAL SUPERCELL STRUCTURES. ONCE SUCH SUPERCELL
THAT HAS MOVED FROM BIBB INTO CHILTON COUNTY AL HAS PRODUCED LARGE
HAIL UP TO 1.50 INCH IN DIAMETER.

ANOTHER CLUSTER OF THUNDERSTORMS MOVING EWD OVER W-CNTRL MS MAY BE
ASSOCIATED WITH A REMNANT MCV FROM CONVECTION LAST NIGHT IN OK.
GIVEN SUFFICIENT EFFECTIVE BULK SHEAR OF 35-40 KT...THIS ACTIVITY
MAY POSE MORE OF A STRONG/DAMAGING WIND THREAT AS IT CONTINUES
MOVING OVER CNTRL MS WITH TIME. IF THE ACTIVITY ALONG THE REMNANT
OUTFLOW BOUNDARY AND/OR THE CLUSTER OF STORMS IN W-CNTRL MS INCREASE
IN COVERAGE AND INTENSITY OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS...THEN A
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH MAY BE NEEDED.

..GLEASON/THOMPSON.. 07/03/2015

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...FFC...TAE...BMX...MOB...MEG...JAN...

LAT...LON   32759105 33399101 33789043 33698828 33528628 33408514
            31968469 31778518 31908768 32239027 32759105



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