Marine/Aviation Tropical Cyclone Advisory
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000
WTPZ21 KNHC 302033
TCMEP1

TROPICAL STORM VANCE FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER   3
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP212014
2100 UTC THU OCT 30 2014

THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.

TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 11.0N 101.0W AT 30/2100Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN  30 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 260 DEGREES AT   4 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1005 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS  35 KT WITH GUSTS TO  45 KT.
34 KT.......  0NE   0SE   0SW  40NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT.  RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 11.0N 101.0W AT 30/2100Z
AT 30/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 11.1N 100.8W

FORECAST VALID 31/0600Z 10.6N 101.6W
MAX WIND  40 KT...GUSTS  50 KT.
34 KT... 30NE   0SE  30SW  40NW.

FORECAST VALID 31/1800Z 10.1N 102.5W
MAX WIND  40 KT...GUSTS  50 KT.
34 KT... 40NE  30SE  30SW  40NW.

FORECAST VALID 01/0600Z  9.9N 104.0W
MAX WIND  45 KT...GUSTS  55 KT.
34 KT... 60NE  30SE  30SW  50NW.

FORECAST VALID 01/1800Z 10.1N 105.9W
MAX WIND  50 KT...GUSTS  60 KT.
50 KT... 30NE   0SE   0SW  30NW.
34 KT... 70NE  40SE  30SW  60NW.

FORECAST VALID 02/1800Z 12.0N 109.6W
MAX WIND  65 KT...GUSTS  80 KT.
50 KT... 40NE  30SE  20SW  30NW.
34 KT...100NE  70SE  60SW  70NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 125 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 03/1800Z 16.0N 110.5W
MAX WIND  70 KT...GUSTS  85 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 04/1800Z 20.0N 108.5W
MAX WIND  60 KT...GUSTS  75 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 11.0N 101.0W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 31/0300Z

$$
FORECASTER BLAKE




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