473
FXUS65 KABQ 280754
AFDABQ

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Albuquerque NM
154 AM MDT Sun Apr 28 2024

...New SYNOPSIS, SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, FIRE WEATHER...

.SYNOPSIS...
Issued at 154 AM MDT Sun Apr 28 2024

Milder and drier conditions return to western and central New Mexico
Sunday behind Saturday`s system. A trailing disturbance will bring
some scattered afternoon and evening showers to north central and
northeast NM near the Colorado border. Warm temperatures and clear
skies expected Monday and Tuesday. Temperatures peak with breezy
west winds areawide Wednesday ahead of a system over the Great
Basin. The system clips the state Thursday cooling most areas along
with a backdoor front entering far northeast areas. Some showers are
possible Thursday night across far northeast areas as the backdoor
front moves through the rest of eastern New Mexico. Moisture from
the Gulf of Mexico returns to eastern New Mexico this weekend. This
moisture combined with a weak disturbance will bring the chance for
some afternoon and evening showers and storms.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Today through Monday)
Issued at 154 AM MDT Sun Apr 28 2024

While yesterday`s storm system continues to lift northeastward away
from NM, a trailing weak shortwave will cross NM today. Yesterday`s
system sent a weak backdoor front into northeast NM and this
boundary will hold up here for much of the day. The combination of
weak lift associated with the shortwave, the boundary providing
focus, and enough moisture in the area will allow for showers and
thunderstorms to develop this afternoon. These showers will likely
propagate eastward off the northern mountains and continue toward
the OK and TX borders this evening. Though much of the convection
will be meager, a stronger storm or two could drop over a tenth of
an inch of rain for a few locales near the CO border. Elsewhere,
temperatures will rise 5 to 15 degrees over yesterday`s readings,
but these readings will still be a few degrees shy of normal. Breezy
west to northwest winds will also be the rule.

The last of the precipitation should diminish or move into OK/TX by
midnight. Thereafter, quiet conditions are expected. Low
temperatures will be within 5 degrees of normal for most locales.

Zonal flow will prevail on Monday. A new lee side surface low will
develop over northeast NM which will allow for westerly breezes once
again. Temperatures will continue to climb with most locations
topping out at or a few degrees above normal.  All-in-all, should be
a great day across the Land of Enchantment.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Monday night through Saturday)
Issued at 154 AM MDT Sun Apr 28 2024

Afternoon southwest breezes pick up a little across northeast and
east central NM on Tuesday due to development of a 996 mb surface
lee low over the CO/NM border. The warmup continues areawide with
high temperatures 5 to 10 degrees above average for most, with
northeast areas 10 to 15 degrees above average! Temperatures peak
areawide on Wednesday ahead of an upper level trough over the Great
Basin diving southeast. High temperatures will be 5 to 10 degrees
above normal along and west of the central mountain chain and 10 to
15 degrees normal east of the central mountain chain. 500 to 700 mb
southwest to west winds increase to 20 to 35 kts ahead of the upper
level trough and with deep ABL mixing, this will result in breezy
conditions areawide with the strongest winds across the northeast
highlands and plains.

The trough moves through the central Rockies and clips the state
Thursday. Lower upper level heights will result in cooler
temperatures by around 5 to 8 degrees across central and western NM.
The associated backdoor front looks to enter far northeast NM
cooling temperatures 10 to 15 degrees there. Stiff westerly flow
during the afternoon looks to limit the southwest progress of the
backdoor front. The 0Z deterministic GFS and a greater number of the
cluster analyses have this westerly flow slightly stronger compared
to the 0Z deterministic ECMWF due to a slightly more southern track.
Some isolated showers and storms are possible across far northeast
NM Thursday evening as the trough axis moves through. Once the ABL
decouples and the westerly flow relaxes Thursday evening, this will
allow the backdoor front to make progress south and west through all
of eastern NM Thursday night. The 00Z suite of model runs don`t
really have the backdoor front making it through the gaps of the
central mountain chain early Friday morning. However, it could give
a light east wind to Santa Fe through Glorieta Pass and bring a
light north drainage wind to the ABQ metro. Temperatures across
eastern NM will be slightly below average on Friday in the wake of
the backdoor front. Breezy southwest winds develop across northeast
NM by the afternoon due to a quickly developing surface lee trough.

Return flow brings Gulf of Mexico moisture into most of eastern NM
by Saturday morning increasing dewpoints into the upper 30s to low
40s and PWATs around 0.75 inches. This moisture along with a weak
shortwave moving northeast along the subtropical jet will result in
the development of isolated to scattered showers and storms during
the afternoon and evening hours with east central and southeast
areas most favored. Another round of showers and storms is possible
across eastern NM next Sunday afternoon and early evening, but
coverage looks lower compared to Saturday.

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 1137 PM MDT Sat Apr 27 2024

Much of the shower and thunderstorm activity has ended for the
night as the storm system pulls away from NM. MVFR to IFR cigs
remain possible through the overnight hours and into Sunday
morning across the northern mountains (with some mt obscurations
possible), far northeast NM near the CO border, as well as across
west central NM, which may potentially impact KGUP. Another round
of showers and thunderstorms are expected across north central and
northeast NM Sunday afternoon. These storms will diminish Sunday
evening shortly after sunset. Elsewhere, breezy west to northwest
winds will return Sunday afternoon with gusts near 25 or 30kt
likely.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 154 AM MDT Sun Apr 28 2024

...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS LIKELY TO RETURN MID WEEK...

Showers and thunderstorms will return to north central and northeast
New Mexico this afternoon, though wetting rain footprints will be
few and far between. Elsewhere, breezy west to northwest winds will
be the rule. Monday is expected to be quiet with zonal flow aloft,
but warmer with continued westerly breezes. Zonal flow aloft and
westerly breezes at the surface will continue on Tuesday. Tuesday
will also be drier with several hours of single digit RH likely for
the lower Rio Grande Valley and portions of eastern NM. The next
storm system will pass largely to the north of NM Wednesday and
Thursday, but winds will pick up across the state in response.
Breezy to windy southwest winds are expected on Wednesday. This will
result in critical fire weather conditions likely returning across
much of eastern NM as the winds combine with several hours of single
digit RH, high Haines and above normal temps. A Pacific front will
cross the area on Thursday, but drier conditions and strong west to
northwest winds are expected behind it. Thus, despite slightly
cooler temperatures, critical to near-critical conditions will be
possible across most areas except northeast NM. Across NE NM, the
backdoor segment of the front will bring slightly higher humidity,
perhaps a shower or two, and strong northerly winds.  The front will
continue to slide south and west Thursday night which will prevent
critical conditions from returning on Friday.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Farmington......................  66  36  72  40 /   5   0   0   0
Dulce...........................  62  27  67  32 /  30  20   0   0
Cuba............................  61  32  68  38 /   5   0   0   0
Gallup..........................  63  28  71  33 /   5   0   0   0
El Morro........................  59  31  66  36 /   5   0   0   0
Grants..........................  63  28  71  33 /   5   0   0   0
Quemado.........................  61  33  70  37 /   0   0   0   0
Magdalena.......................  65  39  73  45 /   5   0   0   0
Datil...........................  61  35  69  40 /   0   0   0   0
Reserve.........................  67  31  75  35 /   5   5   0   0
Glenwood........................  71  41  78  49 /   5   0   0   0
Chama...........................  56  27  60  32 /  40  20   0   0
Los Alamos......................  60  40  66  45 /  10   0   0   0
Pecos...........................  63  35  68  41 /  10  10   0   0
Cerro/Questa....................  56  34  63  40 /  30  30   0   0
Red River.......................  53  26  59  33 /  50  40   0   0
Angel Fire......................  54  24  60  26 /  30  20   0   0
Taos............................  61  28  68  34 /  20  20   0   0
Mora............................  61  32  67  38 /  20  10   0   0
Espanola........................  67  37  74  41 /  10   5   0   0
Santa Fe........................  62  38  68  44 /  10   5   0   0
Santa Fe Airport................  65  36  72  41 /   5   0   0   0
Albuquerque Foothills...........  68  46  74  49 /   0   5   0   0
Albuquerque Heights.............  69  45  76  47 /   0   5   0   0
Albuquerque Valley..............  71  42  78  46 /   0   5   0   0
Albuquerque West Mesa...........  70  43  77  48 /   0   5   0   0
Belen...........................  73  40  79  44 /   5   5   0   0
Bernalillo......................  70  42  77  47 /   0   5   0   0
Bosque Farms....................  72  39  78  44 /   5   0   0   0
Corrales........................  70  42  77  46 /   0   5   0   0
Los Lunas.......................  72  39  78  44 /   0   0   0   0
Placitas........................  66  43  73  48 /   0   5   0   0
Rio Rancho......................  70  43  76  47 /   0   5   0   0
Socorro.........................  74  45  81  48 /   5   5   0   0
Sandia Park/Cedar Crest.........  61  41  67  44 /   0   0   0   0
Tijeras.........................  64  41  70  44 /   0   0   0   0
Edgewood........................  64  38  70  41 /   0   0   0   0
Moriarty/Estancia...............  67  33  72  36 /   0   0   0   0
Clines Corners..................  62  35  69  39 /   0   0   0   0
Mountainair.....................  65  39  71  42 /   0   5   0   0
Gran Quivira....................  66  38  71  42 /   0   0   0   0
Carrizozo.......................  69  45  75  50 /   0   5   0   0
Ruidoso.........................  63  40  69  46 /   0   0   0   0
Capulin.........................  59  33  69  40 /  40  50   0   0
Raton...........................  63  33  72  37 /  50  40   0   0
Springer........................  66  34  74  38 /  30  20   0   0
Las Vegas.......................  64  35  71  41 /  10   5   0   0
Clayton.........................  65  41  75  48 /  20  20   0   0
Roy.............................  66  38  73  44 /  20  20   0   0
Conchas.........................  74  41  80  47 /  10  10   0   0
Santa Rosa......................  72  41  77  46 /   0   5   0   0
Tucumcari.......................  73  42  81  48 /   0  10   0   0
Clovis..........................  74  46  81  49 /   0   5   0   0
Portales........................  75  44  82  49 /   0   5   0   0
Fort Sumner.....................  76  43  81  47 /   0   5   0   0
Roswell.........................  81  50  86  52 /   0   0   0   0
Picacho.........................  74  46  79  50 /   0   0   0   0
Elk.............................  71  43  77  47 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...34
LONG TERM....71
AVIATION...34