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000
FXUS65 KABQ 120554 AAB
AFDABQ

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Albuquerque NM
1154 PM MDT Thu Apr 11 2024

...New AVIATION...

.SYNOPSIS...
Issued at 143 PM MDT Thu Apr 11 2024

Unsettled weather returns to northern and central New Mexico in the
form of breezy to windy conditions starting Friday and lasting
through mid next week. Breezy to windy conditions will meet some of
the warmest temperatures seen this season Friday areawide. An
incoming disturbance will bring a slight cooldown Saturday for
areas west of the central mountains. A cold front on Monday will
bring very windy conditions and markedly cooler temperatures
areawide. Temperatures will rebound Tuesday and Wednesday with windy
conditions likely to persist.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(This evening through Friday night)
Issued at 143 PM MDT Thu Apr 11 2024

A ridge of high pressure cresting over the southern Rockies today
and tonight will bring delightful weather to the region thru Friday
morning. Min temps tonight will trend a few degrees warmer in most
areas with weaker valley inversions and increasing winds in the high
terrain. Surface pressure falls will begin Friday afternoon with a
lee side trough deepening to near 1004mb. Deep mixing to near 14kft
with strong warm advection and 700-500mb layer south/southwest winds
of 25 to 35 kt will yield widespread breezy to windy conditions. Low
humidity with these winds will elevate the threat for dangerous fire
conditions (see below). Otherwise, it will be warm with highs in the
70s and 80s. The first 80F this season is possible at KABQ on Friday
which would be only 3 days earlier than the 30-year normal of April
15th. The first 90F is also possible at Roswell Friday which is 10
days earlier than the normal of April 22nd.

A wave of mid level moisture will enter western NM early Friday
evening as a weak shortwave trough ejects northeast across the Four
Corners. This moisture along with deep mixing and instability from
Friday afternoon may be enough for some high-based showers with
gusty downburst winds Friday evening as far east as the RGV and
central mt chain. Min temps Friday night will be even warmer than
tonight with greater cloud cover and winds persisting longer into
the evening.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Saturday through Wednesday)
Issued at 143 PM MDT Thu Apr 11 2024

Unsettled weather to dominate in the long term as a potent low off
the CA coast makes its way inland. A weak shortwave ridge on
Saturday will crest over the Land of Enchantment, allowing above
normal temperatures to persist. Breezy conditions will favor the
high terrain and portions of eastern NM. While most locales west of
the central mts see a few degrees of cooling, the downsloping aspect
of the wind will help to raise temperatures a few degrees in the
eastern plains. Flow aloft increases moving into Sunday as the upper
low splits across SoCal and the Great Basin. Breezy conditions will
be more widespread on Sunday as a result, with the strongest winds
favoring the western and southern high terrain.

The system tracks eastward quickly, making its way to NM by early
Monday morning. Position of the system is still being debated
amongst model guidance, however, agreement is somewhat better. The
GFS continues to favor a more southern placement, while the ECMWF
and CMC agree on a northern track. Meanwhile, a persisting lee-side
sfc low deepens to an impressive 985mb in eastern CO. The difference
in the overall synoptic pattern is plainly seen in the winds by each
model, creating a 5 to 10 kt spread between them. Attempted to split
the difference, but even with that, the potential for high wind
gusts is looking more likely, especially across the eastern plains
Monday afternoon. The frontal passage accompany the upper low
pressure will bring markedly colder temperatures for Monday`s
afternoon highs, ranging from 5F to 15F cooler than Sunday`s
readings. While overall moisture-starved, the system may bring some
high terrain rain/snow as it traverses the area Monday evening into
early Tuesday morning, with the best coverage favoring the
extreme western and northern mts. The low skirts off into the
Great Plains Tuesday, entering a tight sinusoidal pattern as
another low pivots across the Great Basin. This will keep the H5
pressure gradient tight Tuesday into Wednesday, allowing breezy to
windy conditions to persist amongst a gentle warming trend.

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 1143 PM MDT Thu Apr 11 2024

VFR conditions are forecast for the next 24 hours. South and
southwest winds will become gusty on Friday. There will be a
slight chance for isolated and virga showers from around Chama to
around Farmington late Friday afternoon through the evening. Dry
microbursts from these showers could produce localized and erratic
wind gusts up to 45 KT.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 143 PM MDT Thu Apr 11 2024

...RED FLAG WARNING IN EFFECT FOR PARTS OF CENTRAL AND EASTERN NM
FRIDAY DUE TO STRONG WINDS AND LOW HUMIDITY...

A more typical dry and windy spring pattern will return to the
region over much of the next 7 to 10 days. The first in a series of
critical fire weather events will occur Friday as strong south to
southwest winds increase with warmer temperatures, min RH near 10%,
and Haines values of 5 to 6. RFTI values are highest Friday within
the Rio Grande Valley and over northeast NM from near Las Vegas to
Clayton. Winds will trend lighter on Saturday with a widespread area
of elevated to near critical fire weather possible. An upper level
storm system will creep closer to the area by Sunday with stronger
southwest winds once again. Widespread critical to locally extreme
fire weather is possible again for central and eastern NM.

The strongest winds of the next few days is expected Monday with
southwest to west winds gusting to between 45 and 60 mph. Critical
to extreme fire weather with single digit RH is possible. Greater
cloud cover, much cooler temps, and even some high terrain rain and
snow showers are possible for northern and western NM. A brief break
may occur Tuesday followed by more widespread strong winds and very
low humidity for Wednesday.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Farmington......................  36  82  42  74 /   0   0   5   0
Dulce...........................  27  75  34  69 /   0   5  10   0
Cuba............................  34  74  38  69 /   0   0  10   0
Gallup..........................  28  78  32  71 /   0   0   5   0
El Morro........................  35  72  35  67 /   0   0   0   0
Grants..........................  28  77  33  72 /   0   0   5   0
Quemado.........................  35  73  34  69 /   0   0   0   0
Magdalena.......................  44  74  42  73 /   0   0   5   0
Datil...........................  38  73  37  68 /   0   0   0   0
Reserve.........................  33  76  34  72 /   0   0   0   0
Glenwood........................  48  81  47  79 /   0   0   0   0
Chama...........................  29  68  33  63 /   0   0  10   0
Los Alamos......................  40  72  45  68 /   0   0  10   0
Pecos...........................  38  74  42  69 /   0   5  10   0
Cerro/Questa....................  41  67  44  64 /   0   0  10   0
Red River.......................  24  65  32  61 /   0   0  10   0
Angel Fire......................  21  65  29  62 /   0   0  10   0
Taos............................  29  73  35  70 /   0   0  10   0
Mora............................  33  71  38  69 /   0   0  10   0
Espanola........................  35  79  42  76 /   0   0  10   0
Santa Fe........................  42  74  44  69 /   0   0  10   0
Santa Fe Airport................  38  78  43  73 /   0   0  10   0
Albuquerque Foothills...........  49  79  50  75 /   0   0  10   0
Albuquerque Heights.............  44  80  47  76 /   0   0   5   0
Albuquerque Valley..............  41  83  46  79 /   0   0   5   0
Albuquerque West Mesa...........  44  82  47  78 /   0   0   5   0
Belen...........................  36  83  43  81 /   0   0  10   0
Bernalillo......................  41  81  47  78 /   0   0  10   0
Bosque Farms....................  37  83  43  79 /   0   0   5   0
Corrales........................  42  82  48  78 /   0   0  10   0
Los Lunas.......................  38  82  44  79 /   0   0   5   0
Placitas........................  44  78  48  74 /   0   0  10   0
Rio Rancho......................  43  80  47  77 /   0   0  10   0
Socorro.........................  45  84  46  82 /   0   0   5   0
Sandia Park/Cedar Crest.........  43  73  46  69 /   0   0  10   0
Tijeras.........................  41  77  45  71 /   0   0  10   0
Edgewood........................  35  77  41  72 /   0   0  10   0
Moriarty/Estancia...............  29  78  38  74 /   0   0  10   0
Clines Corners..................  36  73  39  69 /   0   0  10   0
Mountainair.....................  38  76  41  72 /   0   0  10   0
Gran Quivira....................  39  75  41  72 /   0   0  10   0
Carrizozo.......................  45  79  49  75 /   0   0   5   0
Ruidoso.........................  42  74  45  69 /   0   0   5   0
Capulin.........................  33  74  40  73 /   0   0   5   0
Raton...........................  29  77  37  76 /   0   0   5   0
Springer........................  29  79  38  77 /   0   0   5   0
Las Vegas.......................  35  74  40  72 /   0   0   5   0
Clayton.........................  37  80  47  81 /   0   0   0   0
Roy.............................  35  77  43  77 /   0   0   5   0
Conchas.........................  37  83  46  83 /   0   0   0   0
Santa Rosa......................  35  79  43  79 /   0   0   0   0
Tucumcari.......................  39  82  47  83 /   0   0   0   0
Clovis..........................  42  81  47  82 /   0   0   0   0
Portales........................  41  83  47  84 /   0   0   0   0
Fort Sumner.....................  38  81  44  82 /   0   0   0   0
Roswell.........................  44  85  49  89 /   0   0   0   0
Picacho.........................  40  80  47  79 /   0   0   0   0
Elk.............................  42  79  47  77 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Red Flag Warning from noon to 8 PM MDT Friday for NMZ104-106-
123>125.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...42
LONG TERM....12
AVIATION...44