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000
FXUS63 KABR 232003
AFDABR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ABERDEEN SD
303 PM CDT THU MAY 23 2013

.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT

A SOMEWHAT ACTIVE PATTERN FOR THE SHORT RANGE. MODELS ARE IN
GENERAL AGREEMENT THAT A MID LEVEL WESTERN CONUS TROF WILL DEVELOP
DURING THE PERIOD...WITH RETURN FLOW QUICKLY BRINGING
MOISTURE/INSTABILITY BACK INTO THE WESTERN HIGH PLAINS. IT
APPEARS THIS AREA WILL REMAIN THE FOCUS FOR CONVECTIVE
INITIATION/DEVELOPMENT THROUGH MUCH OF THE PERIOD. WITH AN MCS OR
TWO BEGINNING OUT WEST AND RIDING THE LLJ EAST OVERNIGHT. DEEP
LAYER BULK SHEAR WILL BE SUFFICIENT ENOUGH TO GET SOME DECENT
STORMS GOING...ESPECIALLY THE WESTERN HIGH PLAINS WHERE
MOISTURE/INSTABILITY WILL BE MORE PROLIFIC. AS FOR
TEMPERATURES...THEY SHOULD GENERALLY BE NEAR OR SLIGHTLY COOLER
THAN NORMAL ACROSS THE REGION. WINDS WILL BE GUSTY FROM THE SOUTH
ON FRIDAY...HOWEVER FOR NOW THEY APPEAR TO REMAIN NEAR OR JUST
UNDER WIND ADVISORY CRITERIA AND THUS WILL FORE-GO ANY HEADLINE FOR
THE TIME BEING.

.LONG TERM...SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY

MODELS AGREE FAIRLY WELL IN THE EXTENDED WITH THE EVOLUTION OF
THE LONG WAVE FLOW PATTERN ACROSS THE CONUS. WEAK TO MODERATE
RIDGING WILL PERSIST ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST PORTION OF THE US...WITH
A TROUGH OVER THE SOUTHWEST. SOUTHERLY FLOW AHEAD OF THE UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH AND SURFACE LOW PRESSURE SHOULD BE THE FOCUS
MECHANISM FOR A PROLONGED PERIOD OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FOR
THE NORTHERN PLAINS AND UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. WHILE THERE IS
AT LEAST A CHANCE FOR STORMS EACH DAY IN THE EXTENDED...BELIEVE
THERE WELL BE PERIODS OF DRY CONDITIONS MIXED IN. TIMING DRY
PERIODS ARE RATHER PROBLEMATIC AS THE GFS/ECMWF SHOW SEVERAL SHORT
WAVE TRACKING ACROSS THE REGION AT VARIOUS TIMES. THUS WILL STICK
WITH ALLBLEND POPS FOR NOW AND FINE TUNE IN THE FUTURE.

&&

.AVIATION...
18Z TAFS FOR THE KABR...KATY...KPIR AND KMBG TERMINALS

PREVAILING VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED FOR ALL TERMINALS THROUGH
THE VALID TAF PERIOD. LOW END VFR SCT-BKN CU THIS AFTERNOON WILL
DIMINISH LATER THIS EVENING WITH CLEAR SKIES EXPECTED THROUGH THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS. WINDS WILL INCREASE FROM THE SOUTHEAST BY MID
MORNING FOR ALL TERMINALS WITH THE STRONGEST WINDS AFFECTING
KPIR/KMBG. THE INCREASING WINDS ALONG WITH A WEAK STORM SYSTEM
WILL CAUSE SHOWERS TO DEVELOP BY MID MORNING AS WELL.

&&

.ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
MN...NONE.

&&

$$
SHORT TERM...TDK
LONG TERM...SD
AVIATION...SD

WEATHER.GOV/ABERDEEN