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000
FXUS63 KABR 161951
AFDABR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ABERDEEN SD
251 PM CDT SUN JUN 16 2013

.SHORT TERM...THROUGH WEDNESDAY AM

A FEW STORMS HAVE FIRED ALREADY THIS AFTERNOON...BETWEEN ABERDEEN
AND SISSETON. THE ENVIRONMENT CONTINUES TO BE UNFAVORABLE FOR
SEVERE WEATHER...WITH MAINLY SKINNY CAPE AND LIMITED WIND SHEAR.
THE AREAS NOT EFFECTED AT ISSUANCE TIME CONTINUE TO DESTABILIZE SO
GOING POPS AROUND 40 PERCENT SHOULD SUFFICE. LACK OF UPPER FORCING
AND LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING SUGGESTS STORMS WILL DISSIPATE
RAPIDLY THIS EVENING. DRIER AIR WILL MOVE IN OVERNIGHT...SO
TEMPERATURES BACK INTO THE 50S IS REASONABLE.

ATMOSPHERE RESPONDS SIMILAR TO TODAY ON MONDAY...IN EXTREME
NORTHEAST SOUTH DAKOTA/WESTERN MINNESOTA COUNTIES WITH SKINNY CAPE
AND CONVECTIVE TEMPERATURES IN THE MID 70S THANKS TO COLD AIR
ALOFT AS WEAK UPPER LOW DRIFTING INTO NORTHERN MINNESOTA.
ELSEWHERE...DRY CONDITIONS MONDAY AND TUESDAY.

WARM AIR ADVECTION MAY LEAD TO A ROUND OF HIGH BASED STORMS IN
WESTERN SOUTH DAKOTA BY THE END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD...HOWEVER
MOISTURE ADVECTION IS LACKING SO WILL LIMIT TO LOW POPS FOR THE
TIME BEING.


.LONG TERM...WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY

UPPER RIDGING OVER THE PLAINS WILL PUSH TO THE EAST ON FRIDAY. THE
RIDGE WILL HAVE LITTLE SETTLING EFFECT ON THE SFC WEATHER AS A LEE
SIDE TROF THAT SETS UP ON WEDNESDAY WILL DOMINATE. A 25 TO 30 KT
LLJ WED EVENING AND THU EVENING WILL HELP PRODUCE CONVECTION OVER
THE REGION. THE TROF WILL FINALLY MOVE EAST INTO MINNESOTA FRI
NIGHT. STUCK WITH ALLBLEND SLIGHT CHANCE TO CHANCE POPS WED
THROUGH FRI TO ACCOUNT FOR THIS SYSTEM.

OVER THE WEEKEND WEAK SFC HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN TO THE NORTHERN
PLAINS. A NUMBER OF WEAK SHORTWAVES WILL RIDE THROUGH THE UPPER
FLOW. PRECIP CHANCES REMAIN IN THE FORECAST FOR THE WEEKEND
BECAUSE OF THE SHORTWAVES. STORMS MAY END UP BEING MORE ISOLATED
AND AREAL COVERAGE MAY BE MORE ACCURATELY PIN POINTED AS THE WEEKEND
APPROACHES.

TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN NEAR OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE AVERAGE THROUGH
THE PERIOD WITH HIGHS IN THE LOWER TO MID 80S.




&&

.AVIATION...
18Z TAFS FOR THE KABR...KATY...KPIR AND KMBG TERMINALS

VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL TODAY AND TONIGHT. SHOWERS AND TSTORMS
WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST CWA EARLY THIS AFTERNOON. THE
BULK OF ANY LIGHTNING SHOULD REMAIN SOUTH OF KPIR. THERE IS THE
POSSIBILITY OF SOME TSTORM DEVELOPMENT LATE THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS
THE COTEAU IN THE VICINTY OF KATY. HAVE NOT ADDED A VCTS MENTION
AS YET SINCE THERE IS STILL A GOOD DEAL OF UNCERTAINTY AS TO AREAL
COVERAGE OF ANY STORMS. TIMING WOULD BE BETWEEN 21Z AND 01Z.




&&

.ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$
SHORT TERM...CONNELLY
LONG TERM...WISE
AVIATION...WISE

WEATHER.GOV/ABERDEEN