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000
FXUS63 KABR 220905
AFDABR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ABERDEEN SD
405 AM CDT WED MAY 22 2013

.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY
THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM RESPONSIBLE FOR THE LAST SEVERAL DAYS OF
PRECIPITATION IS FINALLY SHOWING SIGNS OF EXITING THE REGION.
HOWEVER...THERE WILL BE ONE LAST WAVE OF ENERGY TO ROTATE AROUND
THE BACKSIDE OF THE LOW THIS AFTERNOON. SO WHILE CURRENT RADAR
IMAGERY IS SHOWING RAPID DIMINISHMENT OF REFLECTIVITY VALUES...THERE
WILL LIKELY BE REDEVELOPMENT ACROSS THE EASTERN CWA LATER THIS
MORNING...AND LIKELY LINGERING INTO THE AFTERNOON HOURS ACROSS THE
FAR SOUTHEAST CWA. MODELS ARE SHOWING DRIER AIR QUICKLY MOVING
ACROSS NORTH DAKOTA AND INTO THE NORTHERN CWA THIS AFTERNOON. THIS
SHOULD BREAK UP CLOUD COVER...AND COMBINED WITH WARM AIR ADVECTION
/925 MB TEMPS RISE BACK INTO THE TEENS ACROSS THE NORTH/
TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE ABLE TO RISE INTO THE MID TO UPPER 60S
ACROSS THE NORTH. MAINTAINED A LESS OPTIMISTIC TEMPERATURE
FORECAST FOR THE SOUTHERN CWA WHICH WILL LIKELY BE UNDER STRATUS
FOR MOST IF NOT ALL OF THE DAY.

A HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE THEN MOVES OVER THE REGION OVERNIGHT. WITH
CLEARING SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS...TEMPERATURES SHOULD DROP FAIRLY
QUICKLY...AND LOWS ARE FORECAST IN THE 40S.

THE RIDGE QUICKLY MOVES EAST DURING THE DAY ON THURSDAY...AND
RETURN FLOW WINDS WILL SET UP ACROSS THE CWA. WITH FULL SUN AND
925 MB TEMPERATURES BACK INTO THE TEENS...THE MODELS MAY BE UNDER
DOING TEMPERATURES SLIGHTLY ON THURSDAY. HOWEVER WITH THE BEST
WARM AIR ADVECTION NOT OCCURRING UNTIL LATE THURSDAY AND
FRIDAY...MAINTAINED THE MODEL CONSENSUS OF UPPER 60S AND LOW 70S
ACROSS THE REGION THURSDAY AFTERNOON. THE PRESSURE GRADIENT DOES
TIGHTEN UP QUICKLY ACROSS THE WESTERN HALF OF SOUTH DAKOTA AS LOW
PRESSURE DEVELOPING ACROSS THE NORTHERN ROCKIES DEEPENS AND MOVES
EASTWARD. SO...GUSTY SOUTHEAST WINDS WILL BE EXPECTED...ESPECIALLY
ACROSS THE WESTERN CWA.

BY THURSDAY NIGHT/FRIDAY MORNING THERE WILL BE A STRONG 30 TO
40 KNOT LOW LEVEL JET. UNCERTAIN IF THERE WILL BE ANY THUNDERSTORM
DEVELOPMENT ALONG THE LLJ AS THE MAIN SURGE OF GULF MOISTURE DOES
NOT MAKE ITS WAY INTO OUR CWA UNTIL FRIDAY AFTERNOON/SATURDAY.
EVEN WITH THE ADDITIONAL MOISTURE FRIDAY AFTERNOON...THE REGION
WILL STILL BE UNDER RISING 500 MB HEIGHTS...SO WILL CONTINUE TO
MONITOR FOR THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT...BUT IT APPEARS AS MOST OF
THE LIFT WILL BE WARM AIR ADVECTION INDUCED AT THIS POINT.

.LONG TERM...FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY
MODELS HAVE BEEN VERY CONSISTENT THROUGH THE WEEKEND WITH SOME
TIMING AND INTENSITY DIFFERENCES EMERGING AT THE START OF THE WORK
WEEK.

THE PERIOD BEGINS WITH A WIDE OPEN GULF OF MEXICO...A DEVELOPING
30 KT LLJ AND SOUTHEAST FLOW AT THE SFC AHEAD OF A LEE SIDE TROF.
THESE FACTORS WILL SET THE STAGE FOR SOME MILD INSTABILITY AND
THUNDERSTORMS FRIDAY EVENING. THE MOISTURE FEED AND POTENTIAL FOR
SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE INTO SATURDAY. THINK THE GFS ESPECIALLY MAY
BE OVERDOING THE POTENTIAL FOR RAIN INTO SUNDAY...THOUGH THERE ARE
A NUMBER OF SHORTWAVES MOVING UNDER THE UPPER RIDGE. ALLBLEND POPS
MAY BE A LITTLE HIGH BUT IT DOES LOOK LIKE A GOOD SET UP FOR
STRATUS BY THE END OF THE WEEKEND. WITH SOME INCREASED SUNSHINE
POTENTIAL ON MONDAY...DAYTIME INSTABILITY WILL AGAIN INCREASE THE
CHANCES FOR THUNDERSTORMS LATE MONDAY.

CURRENT MODEL RUNS ARE ONLY SLOWLY SHIFTING THE UPPER RIDGE TO THE
EAST TUESDAY WITH INCREASED SHORTWAVE ACTIVITY THROUGH WEDNESDAY.
MAX TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO BE MAINLY IN THE 70S THROUGH THE
PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION...
06Z TAFS FOR THE KABR...KATY...KPIR AND KMBG TERMINALS

AN AREA OF RAIN SHOWERS WILL AFFECT MUCH OF CENTRAL AND EASTERN
SOUTH DAKOTA THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS AND INTO WEDNESDAY
MORNING. DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS...THE RAIN SHOULD BEGIN TO
PUSH OFF TO THE EAST OF THE CWA. VSBYS WILL OCCASIONALLY DROP INTO
THE MVFR CATEGORY WITH THE RAIN. MVFR/IFR CIGS WILL BE COMMON...THEN
WILL RISE BACK INTO THE VFR CATEGORY BY MID TO LATE AFTERNOON.

&&

.ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$
SHORT TERM...SERR
LONG TERM...WISE
AVIATION...WISE

WEATHER.GOV/ABERDEEN