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000
FXUS63 KABR 231744 AAC
AFDABR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ABERDEEN SD
1244 PM CDT THU MAY 23 2013

.UPDATE...
SEE UPDATED AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW.

FOR NOW NO MAJOR CHANGES TO THE FORECAST...EVERYTHING LOOKS ON
TRACK.

&&
.PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY
CURRENT SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWS A RIDGE EXTENDING ACROSS THE WESTERN
CWA THIS MORNING. EVEN WITH LIGHT WINDS AND CLEAR SKIES...THE LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE APPEARS TO BE TOO SHALLOW TO RESULT IN ANY TYPE OF
FOG. STILL A VERY LIMITED CHANCE FOR PATCHY FOG IN THE FAR
SOUTHWEST CWA...SO DID LEAVE A MENTION ACROSS THIS AREA.

THE RIDGE WILL TRACK FAIRLY QUICKLY ACROSS THE STATE TODAY...AT
THE SAME TIME A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM DEEPENS ACROSS THE ROCKIES.
THIS WILL SET UP A TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT ACROSS WESTERN SOUTH
DAKOTA. MODELS ARE SUGGESTING THAT THE STRONGEST WINDS WILL REMAIN
WEST OF OUR CWA...HOWEVER THE FAR NORTHWEST CWA WILL LIKELY SEE
GUSTS IN THE 30 MPH RANGE THIS AFTERNOON. TEMPERATURES WILL BE
COOLER ACROSS THE PRAIRIE COTEAU REGION...BUT SHOULD RISE INTO THE
70S ELSEWHERE.

THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL MOVE OUT OF THE ROCKIES...SHIFTING
THE PRESSURE GRADIENT OVER THE EASTERN HALF OF THE STATE ON
THURSDAY NIGHT/FRIDAY MORNING. A 30 TO 40 KT 925 LLJ SETS UP BY
FRIDAY MORNING...WITH CONTINUED STRONG WINDS THROUGHOUT THE
AFTERNOON. THE BUFKIT MOMENTUM TRANSFER TOOL IS SUGGESTING THAT
WIND ADVISORY WINDS ARE LIKELY ON FRIDAY...SO WILL HAVE TO MONITOR
FOR POTENTIAL HEADLINES. STRONG WARM AIR ADVECTION AND MOISTURE
RETURN ARE EXPECTED WITH THIS LOW LEVEL PATTERN...HOWEVER AN UPPER
LEVEL RIDGE WILL STILL BE OVER THE REGION. THE STRONGEST UPPER
LEVEL FORCING LOOKS AS THOUGH IT WILL STAY OFF TO THE
NORTHWEST...BUT THERE MAY BE A WEAKER WAVE OF ENERGY RIDING OVER
THE RIDGE FRIDAY AFTERNOON. THE NAM IS HAVING SOME CONVECTIVE
FEEDBACK ISSUES SO TRENDED MORE TOWARD THE GFS...GRADUALLY
BRINGING IN POPS THROUGHOUT THE DAY FRIDAY. NOT A REAL UNSTABLE
AIRMASS WITH ONLY AROUND 500 TO 1000 J/KG OF ML CAPE SHOWING UP
WEST OF THE MISSOURI RIVER...AND LITTLE OR NO ML CAPES ELSEWHERE.

MOISTURE CONTINUES TO SURGE INTO THE REGION ON SATURDAY...WITH
MODEL BOUNDARY LAYER DEWPOINTS TOPPING OUT IN THE UPPER 50S AND
LOW 60S. THE UPPER FLOW TRANSITIONS TO THE SOUTHWEST AND SEVERAL
WAVES OF ENERGY /MUCH MORE DEFINED THAN FRIDAY/ WILL MOVE ACROSS
THE NORTHERN PLAINS ON SATURDAY. ALONG WITH ML CAPE VALUES RANGING
FROM 1000 TO 2000 J/KG ACROSS THE WESTERN HALF OF THE CWA...AND
0-6 KM SHEAR VALUES AROUND 40 TO 50 KTS...WILL DEFINITELY HAVE TO
MONITOR THE POTENTIAL FOR STRONG THUNDERSTORMS SATURDAY AFTERNOON.

.LONG TERM...SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY

UPPER RIDGING WILL REMAIN IN PLACE THROUGH THE PERIOD. TRIED TO
FINE-TUNE POPS SLIGHTLY FOR THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND...BUT THIS WAS
CHALLENGING TO SAY THE LEAST. A SERIES OF SHORTWAVES WILL MOVE
UNDER THE RIDGE. ADDITIONALLY A WARM FRONT WILL SET UP A BOUNDARY
FOCAL POINT FOR STORM/SHOWER DEVELOPMENT SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY
MORNING. EC/GEM/GFS ALL HAVE TIMING/INTENSITY/POSITION
DIFFERENCES. CURRENT MODEL RUNS ALL SEEM TO HIT THE SOUTHEASTERN PART
OF THE CWA HARDER WITH RAIN CHANCES THAN THE NORTHWESTERN PART AND
TRIED TO REFLECT THAT TREND A BIT IN 6 HR POP GRIDS.

MAX TEMPS ARE EXPECTED TO HOVER AROUND AVERAGE THROUGH THE
EXTENDED WITH HIGH TEMPS MAINLY IN THE 70S FROM MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...
18Z TAFS FOR THE KABR...KATY...KPIR AND KMBG TERMINALS

PREVAILING VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED FOR ALL TERMINALS THROUGH
THE VALID TAF PERIOD. LOW END VFR SCT-BKN CU THIS AFTERNOON WILL
DIMINISH LATER THIS EVENING WITH CLEAR SKIES EXPECTED THROUGH THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS. WINDS WILL INCREASE FROM THE SOUTHEAST BY MID
MORNING FOR ALL TERMINALS WITH THE STRONGEST WINDS AFFECTING
KPIR/KMBG. THE INCREASING WINDS ALONG WITH A WEAK STORM SYSTEM
WILL CAUSE SHOWERS TO DEVELOP BY MID MORNING AS WELL.

&&

.ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$
UPDATE...TDK
SHORT TERM...SERR
LONG TERM...WISE
AVIATION...SD

WEATHER.GOV/ABERDEEN