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000
FXUS63 KABR 191623 AAB
AFDABR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ABERDEEN SD
1123 AM CDT SUN MAY 19 2013

.UPDATE...
NO CHANGES MADE TO THE TEMPERATURE FORECAST FOR TODAY. BASED ON
THE REGIONAL RADAR MOSAIC AND LATEST GUIDANCE OFF THE HRRR
MODEL...HAVE TRIMMED BACK POPS/WX/QPF MENTION FOR THE REST OF
TODAY. A QUICK PERUSAL OF SEVERE WEATHER PARAMETERS SUGGESTS...THE
EASTERN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA MAY NEED TO BE WATCHED BY LATE
THIS AFTERNOON/EARLY THIS EVENING FOR STRONG TO MARGINALLY SEVERE
STORMS...WITH HAIL BEING THE PRIMARY THREAT...AND PERHAPS A BRIEF
ISOLATED LAND-SPOUT TYPE TORNADO OR TWO. CONCEPTUALLY...A PORTION
OF THE EASTERN CWA COULD BE CHARACTERIZED AS BEING LOCATED IN THE
NE SECTOR OF AN OCCLUDING LOW WITH STEEP LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES
AVAILABLE AND ENOUGH 0-3KM CAPE TO ENHANCE A QUICK SPIN UP OR TWO
ON DEVELOPING TCU/CB`S THIS AFTERNOON/EARLY THIS EVENING.
BUT...THAT`S A PRETTY LOW PROBABILITY OF OCCURRENCE SCENARIO.


&&
.PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY
ONE WORD CAN DESCRIBE THE SHORT TERM PORTION OF THE
FORECAST...WET.

AN UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL STALL ACROSS THE REGION
WITH PERIODS OF SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED TODAY THROUGH
TUESDAY. THE COMBINATION OF EXTENSIVE CLOUD COVER PLUS AN
ABUNDANCE OF LLM...HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE ON THE COOL SIDE OF
NORMAL. HOWEVER WITH THE CLOUD COVER...LOW TEMPERATURES WILL BE
ABOVE NORMAL THROUGH THE PERIOD.

BASED ON THE NAM12...THERE SHOULD BE A BRIEF PERIOD OF TIME WITH
NO PRECIPITATION OCCURRING ACROSS A BETTER PORTION OF THE CWA. BY
21Z...THE SURFACE LOW SHOULD BE NEAR KPIR...WITH SOUTHERLY FLOW
KEEPING DEW POINTS IN THE LOWER 60S ALONG THE I-29 CORRIDOR. THE
LLM IN COMBINATION WITH SHORT WAVE ENERGY TRACKING SOUTH OF THE
REGION SHOULD PRODUCE ANOTHER ROUND OF OVERNIGHT SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS. SOME THUNDERSTORMS COULD BECOME SEVERE AFTER 0Z
WITH DAMAGING WINDS BEING THE MAIN THREAT. 0-6KM BULK SHEAR
VALUES ARE RATHER UNIMPRESSIVE UNTIL AFTER 0Z.


.LONG TERM...TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY

A SLOW MOVING UPPER LOW WILL CONTINUE TO SPREAD RAIN OVER THE
REGION TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY BEFORE EXITING TO THE EAST WED
NIGHT. UPPER RIDGING WILL THEN BUILD IN OVER THE PLAINS FOR THE
REMAINDER OF THE WEEK. WITH THE GULF WIDE OPEN MODELS ARE PINGING
ON SUFFICIENT LOW LEVEL MOISTURE TO FIRE OFF SOME CONVECTION
FRIDAY AND SATURDAY BELOW THE RIDGE. WITH ONLY LIMITED SHORTWAVE
ACTIVITY AT THIS TIME THERE IS LITTLE TO SUGGEST ANY SIGNIFICANT
LIFTING MECHANISM UNTIL A LOW BEGINS TO MOVE OFF THE ROCKIES ON
SUNDAY. HOWEVER THERE WILL BE A LLJ IN PLACE. STUCK WITH ALLBLEND
POPS FOR NOW SINCE IT IS THE END OF THE EXTENDED. HOWEVER WILL
LIKELY NEED TO FINE TUNE TIMING AS THE WEEKEND NEARS.


&&

.AVIATION...
12Z TAFS FOR THE KABR...KATY...KPIR AND KMBG TERMINALS

AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL REMAIN FAIRLY STATIONARY OVER THE
NORTHERN PLAINS THROUGH TUESDAY. THIS WILL MEAN CONTINUED CHANCES
OF RAIN AT THE TAF SITES. THIS MORNING LOW STRATUS WILL CREATE
IFR/MVFR CONDITIONS AT ALL SITES. THERE MAY BE A BRIEF BREAK IN
MVFR CIGS LATE THIS AFTERNOON...BEFORE FALLING AGAIN OVERNIGHT.
STRONGER SHEAR WILL DEVELOP TONIGHT HELPING SET THE STAGE FOR
MORE THUNDERSTORMS NEAR KABR/KATY BY 06Z.


&&

.ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$
UPDATE...DORN
SHORT TERM...SD
LONG TERM...WISE
AVIATION...DORN

WEATHER.GOV/ABERDEEN