National Weather Service Text Product Display

Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Aberdeen, SD
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FXUS63 KABR 132327 AAA
AFDABR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ABERDEEN SD
627 PM CDT MON MAY 13 2013

.UPDATE...
AVIATION DISCUSSION HAS BEEN UPDATED FOR THE 00Z TAF ISSUANCE.

&&
.PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT

MAIN CONCERN IN THE SHORT TERM CONTINUES TO BE FIRE WEATHER. WINDS
WILL DIMINISH THIS EVENING AROUND SUNSET. WAA WILL CONTINUE THIS
EVENING PUSHING H85 TEMPS UP TO AROUND +24C. OVERNIGHT TEMPS ARE
EXPECTED TO HOVER NEAR 60 IN MOST SPOTS. MOST AREAS WILL LIKELY
SEE HIGHS FOR TUESDAY OCCUR IN THE MORNING...REACHING INTO THE
UPPER 70S IN THE NORTHWEST TO THE UPPER 80S IN THE EAST.

THE COLD FRONT WILL SWEEP THROUGH IN THE MORNING. BEHIND THE FRONT
TEMPS WILL HOLD STEADY OR FALL AS CAA BRINGS H85 TEMPS DOWN INTO
THE MID TEENS. WINDS WILL INCREASE TO 25 TO 35 MPH WITH GUSTS TO
50 MPH AS 40 KT WINDS ALOFT MIX DOWN. A WIND ADVISORY MAY BE
NECESSARY FOR PART OF THE REGION...MAINLY FOR THE NORTHERN
COUNTIES. THIS WOULD BE IN ADDITION TO THE PROBABILITY OF
UPGRADING THE FIRE WX WATCH TO A RED FLAG WARNING FOR THE ENTIRE
CWA.

DRY CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE ON WEDNESDAY BUT WINDS ARE EXPECTED
TO BE MUCH LIGHTER AS SFC HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN TO THE DAKOTAS.

.LONG TERM...THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY

THE EXTENDED PERIOD LOOKS TO BE ACTIVE WITH SEVERAL CHANCES FOR
PRECIPITATION. A WARM FRONT WILL BEGIN MOVING NORTHWARD ACROSS THE
REGION FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY WITH A BROAD SFC LOW OVER WESTERN
SOUTH DAKOTA AND THE NEBRASKA PANHANDLE. LOW LEVEL MOISTURE BEGINS
TO INCREASE AS THE GULF OPENS UP. ITS LIKELY MODEL DEWPOINTS ARE A
BIT TOO HIGH FOR THE WEEKEND BUT MAY NOT BE OVER-ESTIMATING QUITE
AS MUCH AS THEY HAVE BEEN THE PAST COUPLE DAYS GIVEN THE UPCOMING
SYNOPTIC SETUP. GENERALLY ACCEPTED ALLBLEND POPS FOR MUCH OF THE
EXTENDED.

&&

.AVIATION...
00Z TAFS FOR THE KABR...KATY...KPIR AND KMBG TERMINALS

THE GUSTY WINDS WILL DIMINISH QUICKLY THIS EVENING AS THE HEAT
SUBSIDES. HOWEVER THEY ARE EXPECTED TO BE GUSTY FROM THE NORTHWEST
AGAIN ON TUESDAY AS DAYTIME HEATING COMMENCES. OTHERWISE MOST
CLOUDS ARE EXPECTED TO BE AOA 10K FEET THROUGH TONIGHT.

&&

.ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 8 PM CDT /7 PM MDT/ THIS EVENING FOR
     LOWER BAD RIVER-MISSOURI COTEAU-PRAIRIE COTEAU-RED RIVER
     VALLEY-UPPER CHEYENNE-UPPER JAMES RIVER-UPPER MISSOURI
     COTEAU.

     FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM TUESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH TUESDAY
     EVENING FOR LOWER BAD RIVER-MISSOURI COTEAU-PRAIRIE COTEAU-
     RED RIVER VALLEY-UPPER CHEYENNE-UPPER JAMES RIVER-UPPER
     MISSOURI COTEAU.

MN...FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM TUESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH TUESDAY
     EVENING FOR BIG STONE-TRAVERSE.

&&

$$
UPDATE...TDK
SHORT TERM...WISE
LONG TERM...TMT
AVIATION...TDK

WEATHER.GOV/ABERDEEN
National Weather Service Weather Forecast Office
