Text Products for AFD Issued by ABR

Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Aberdeen, SD
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FXUS63 KABR 101902
AFDABR

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Aberdeen SD
202 PM CDT Wed Apr 10 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Scattered showers/thunderstorms will continue into the evening
  hours and possibly overnight. More showers possible Thursday
  afternoon eastern forecast area.

- Wind gusts to 50 mph possible this evening, then gusty again on
  Thursday, but a tad lower speeds.

- Most of the extended will run above normal for temperature. (80
  possible on Saturday). Decent signal for rain Monday/Tuesday of
  next week.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
Issued at 200 PM CDT Wed Apr 10 2024

A very evident s/w is now tracking southeast through western North
Dakota, and will track across South Dakota tonight. This wave along
with daytime heating will provide for sct showers/tsra into the
evening over the CWA. Meanwhile, winds will remain gusty into the
early evening before coming down. Per CAMS, there remains some shower
chance overnight and will follow suit. On Thursday, most of the area
is quite dry in the low levels and despite afternoon heating, will
probably remain dry, except perhaps the far eastern CWA/Coteau
region where mostly slight chc pops will suffice. It will also be
gusty, windwise, on Thursday, but speeds look to be mainly under
advisory criteria at this time. However, there remain fire weather
concerns. Wind criteria for Red Flag is high enough, but RH remains
marginal up the Missouri valley region. Will keep the watch in place
and give the mid shift another look before any upgrades.
Temperatures will be a little cooler on Thursday given the colder
airmass that will drop in overnight and stick around for Thursday.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
Issued at 200 PM CDT Wed Apr 10 2024

When the period opens on Friday, dry high pressure at the surface is
working through the region, with upper level ridging chasing it from
west to east through the weekend. With the upper level ridge over
the region during the weekend, Saturday looks like the warmest day
(deterministic low level thermal progs and ensemble probabilities
concur on this).

Probability of temperature warming to 80 degrees or higher on
Saturday:

83% chance at Pierre
65% chance at Aberdeen
40% chance at Watertown

Beyond Sunday, all 4 clusters in the ensemble clusters analysis
agree that there will be some longwave troughiness/shortwave energy
working through the region Monday/Tuesday of next week. They just
don`t all agree on strength, timing and track of these systems.
Still, picking up 0.25in to 0.50in of rain in 24 hours between ~21Z
Monday and ~21Z Tuesday seems like a good bet (this far out in
time), per the ensembles 0.25in and 0.50in prob charts, and the
latest grand ensemble of sfc pressure, qpf and 700hpa heights.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY/...
Issued at 1240 PM CDT Wed Apr 10 2024

Terminals KABR,KATY,KPIR,KMBG

VFR skies/vsbys are expected through tonight regionwide, along
with a few showers.


&&

.ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...Wind Advisory until 8 PM CDT /7 PM MDT/ this evening for SDZ003-
     015-033-045-048.

     Fire Weather Watch from Thursday afternoon through Thursday
     evening for SDZ003-004-009-015-016-033>037-045-048-051.

MN...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...TDK
LONG TERM...Dorn
AVIATION...TDK
National Weather Service Weather Forecast Office
