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000
FXUS63 KABR 140836
AFDABR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ABERDEEN SD
336 AM CDT FRI JUN 14 2013

.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY
THE POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE STORMS LATER THIS AFTERNOON CONTINUES TO
BE A FORECAST CHALLENGE.

THE OVERALL THREAT OF SEVERE STORMS THIS AFTERNOON IS NOT CLEAR
CUT AS THERE ARE SEVERAL LIMITING FACTORS AT PLAY. THE FIRST
ISSUE IS A VERY WARM EML OF +13C OVER THE WESTERN HALF OF THE CWA.
THIS WARM LAYER...IN COMBINATION WITH DRY AIR BETWEEN 700-500 MB
WILL LIKELY KEEP AREAS ALONG AND WEST OF HIGHWAY 83 THUNDERSTORM
FREE TODAY. CONVECTION CURRENTLY ONGOING OVER WESTERN SD AND
FURTHER WEST IN MONTANA WILL NOT BE MUCH OF AN ISSUE DUE TO THE
REASONS STATED ABOVE.

A SECONDARY LIMITING FACTOR IS THE AMOUNT OF CLOUD COVER FROM
ONGOING CONVECTION OVER SOUTHERN NEBRASKA. IF THUNDERSTORM DEBRIS
REMAINS ACROSS THE EASTERN CWA TODAY...THEN OBVIOUSLY TEMPERATURES
WILL NOT REACH THEIR FULL CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL.

THE LAST ISSUE IS THE TIMING OF THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY. HI-RES
MODELS SUGGEST A COLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL SLIDE ACROSS THE CWA
BETWEEN 15Z-18Z TODAY...WITH MARGINALLY SEVERE STORMS POSSIBLE.
ADDITIONAL SEVERE STORMS COULD BE POSSIBLE ONCE THE DRY LINE MOVES
THROUGH THE EASTERN CWA. BELIEVE EVEN WITH ALL THE LIMITING
FACTORS...SEVERE STORMS WILL DEVELOP EAST OF THE JAMES RIVER
VALLEY AND ALONG THE DRY LINE LATER THIS AFTERNOON. GENERALLY
EXPECT LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS WILL BE THE MAIN THREAT.

VERY DRY AIR IN THE MID LEVEL WILL REMAIN ACROSS THE REGION ON
SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT. ADDITIONAL THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE
POSSIBLE ON SUNDAY AS A SHORT WAVE WILL RIDE ALONG AN INSTABILITY
AXIS.

.LONG TERM...SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY
AN UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE WILL TRACK ACROSS THE AREA SUNDAY NIGHT
AND MONDAY...THEN RIDGING BUILDS OVER THE REGION. A COUPLE OF WEAK
WAVES WILL SLIDE ACROSS THE AREA WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY AS
THE RIDGE BEGINS TO BREAK DOWN AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING UPPER LOW.

A SURFACE FRONT WILL BE OVER THE FAR EASTERN CWA WHEN THE PERIOD
BEGINS...AND IN ASSOCIATION WITH THE UPPER WAVE...MAY SEE SOME
PRECIPITATION SUNDAY NIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE THEN DROPS OVER THE
AREA...KEEPING CONDITIONS DRY MONDAY THROUGH THE DAY TUESDAY.
ANOTHER SYSTEM THEN APPROACHES AND LOOKS TO BRING SHOWER AND
THUNDERSTORM CHANCES BACK TO THE AREA FOR THE LATTER HALF OF THE
PERIOD.

WILL SEE A GRADUAL WARMING TREND THROUGH THE LONG TERM PERIOD.
HIGHS WILL BE IN THE LOWER TO MID 70S MONDAY...IN THE UPPER 70S
TO LOWER 80S TUESDAY...AND IN THE LOWER TO MID 80S WEDNESDAY AND
THURSDAY. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL GENERALLY BE MID 50S TO LOWER 60S.

&&

.AVIATION...
06Z TAFS FOR THE KABR...KATY...KPIR AND KMBG TERMINALS

AN UPPER LOW PRESSURE TROUGH IN THE WESTERN US WILL KICK
NORTHEAST AND INTO SOUTHERN CANADA AND CLOSE OFF THROUGH FRIDAY
EVENING. AS A RESULT...A SURFACE COLD FRONT WILL SWEEP ACROSS THE
REGION THROUGH FRIDAY EVENING. EXPECT SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP TONIGHT AND FRIDAY ACROSS THE CWA
AS THE UPPER LEVEL FORCING ALONG WITH AN INCREASING LLJ MOVES
EASTWARD. ABR AND ATY HAVE THE BEST CHANCES OF HAVING SHOWERS AND
POSSIBLY A THUNDERSTORM. ALSO...THE MODELS INDICATE THE LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE INCREASING THROUGH THE NIGHT AND FRIDAY. THUS...EXPECT
AN MVFR STRATUS DECK TO DEVELOP INTO THE CWA LATER TONIGHT AND
FRIDAY AND TRANSLATE EASTWARD THROUGH FRIDAY EVENING. THESE WILL
THEN MIX OUT/BECOME VFR AS SURFACE HEATING INCREASES AND DRIER AIR
BEHIND THE COLD FRONT MOVES IN. IT SHOULD BECOME BREEZY FROM THE
SOUTH SOUTHEAST TONIGHT AND FRIDAY AT THE TERMINALS. THE WINDS
WILL THEN TURN NORTHWEST AND BREEZY AT 15 TO 20 KNOTS WITH HIGHER
GUSTS AT PIR AND MBG IN THE LATE MORNING AND AFTERNOON AS HIGHER
MOMENTUM AIR MIXES DOWN BEHIND THE COLD FRONT.

&&

.ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$
SHORT TERM...SD
LONG TERM...PARKIN
AVIATION...PARKIN

WEATHER.GOV/ABERDEEN