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000
FXUS63 KABR 130542 AAB
AFDABR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ABERDEEN SD
1242 AM CDT THU JUN 13 2013

.UPDATE...
AVIATION DISCUSSION HAS BEEN UPDATED BELOW.

SKIES WERE CLEARING THIS EVENING ALONG WITH DECREASING WINDS AS
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN. WITH WINDS GOING LIGHT AND
MOISTURE AROUND...EXPECT SOME LIGHT FOG TO FORM TONIGHT ACROSS THE
NORTHERN AND EASTERN PARTS OF THE CWA.

&&
.PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING
LIGHT RAINFALL CONTINUES ACROSS MUCH OF THE CWA...ALTHOUGH WATER
VAPOR IMAGERY IS SHOWING THE UPPER LOW MOVING OFF TO THE EAST...AND
RADAR RETURNS ARE SHOWING SOME WEAKENING. THEREFORE...CONTINUED
POPS THROUGH 00Z TONIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN SETTLE IN
OVERNIGHT. FOG MAY DEVELOP GIVEN PLENTY OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE FROM
AN ENTIRE DAY OF RAIN SHOWERS...AS WELL AS CLEARING SKIES AND
LIGHT WINDS OVERNIGHT. WITH THIS SETUP...ALSO WENT WITH THE
SLIGHTLY COOLER GUIDANCE FOR OVERNIGHT LOWS...WITH PERHAPS A FEW
PLACES ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL SOUTH DAKOTA FALLING INTO THE UPPER
40S.

THURSDAY SHOULD BE RELATIVELY QUIET. AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE MOVES
OVER THE PLAINS STATES AND THE SURFACE HIGH GRADUALLY SHIFTS
EASTWARD THROUGH THE DAY. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR RETURN FLOW WINDS
ACROSS THE REGION...TRANSPORTING MOISTURE NORTHWARD. BY THURSDAY
AFTERNOON MODELS ARE SHOWING BOUNDARY LAYER DEWPOINTS BACK IN THE
MID 50S.

BY THURSDAY NIGHT/FRIDAY MORNING A 30 TO 40 KT LOW LEVEL JET WILL
SET UP. COMBINED WITH MOISTURE AND WARM AIR ADVECTION...THERE
WILL LIKELY BE ELEVATED THUNDERSTORMS THAT DEVELOP ACROSS THE WEST
OVERNIGHT...AND THEN TRACK EAST AS THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVES
INTO WESTERN SOUTH DAKOTA/NEBRASKA. MODELS ARE SHOWING PLENTY OF
ELEVATED INSTABILITY...SO THUNDERSTORMS MAY EVEN BECOME STRONG
OVERNIGHT. THE SURFACE LOW CONTINUES TO MOVE EAST AND DRAGS A COLD
FRONT ACROSS THE CWA ON FRIDAY AFTERNOON. IF THE AREA CAN AVOID
RESIDUAL CLOUD COVER FROM OVERNIGHT CONVECTION /NOT CERTAIN THAT
IT WILL/ MODELS ARE SHOWING MID TO UPPER 50S DEWPOINTS...AND ML
CAPE VALUES AHEAD OF THE FRONT RISING INTO THE 1500-2000 J/KG
RANGE. COMBINED WITH AROUND 40 KTS OF SHEAR AND LIFT FROM
SHORTWAVE ENERGY...THERE CERTAINLY COULD BE STRONG OR SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS ON FRIDAY.

.LONG TERM...SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY
PRECIPITATION CHANCES APPEAR TO BE ANCHORED ON SUNDAY/SUNDAY NIGHT
AND THEN POSSIBLY AGAIN BY MID WEEK NEXT WEEK. A LARGE UPPER LEVEL
RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE OVER THE CWA AT THE START OF THE
PERIOD. A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WORKING THROUGH SOUTHERN CANADA IS
EXPECTED TO KNOCK THE RIDGE DOWN...RESULTING IN SOMEWHAT MORE
ZONAL FLOW FROM SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT BEFORE ANOTHER UPPER
LEVEL RIDGE BUILDS BACK UP OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS. FINALLY...BY
WEDNESDAY...THE RIDGE AXIS BEGINS TO SHIFT EAST OF THE CWA
ALLOWING RETURN FLOW WINDS/MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY TO SET UP.
TEMPERATURE-WISE...925HPA AND 850HPA THERMAL PROGS SUPPORT MAINLY
70S AND LOWER 80S ACROSS THE CWA FROM SATURDAY THROUGH
TUESDAY...WITH CONDITIONS POTENTIALLY BEGINNING TO HEAT UP DURING
THE MID TO LATE PORTIONS OF NEXT WEEK.


&&

.AVIATION...
06Z TAFS FOR THE KABR...KATY...KPIR AND KMBG TERMINALS

EXPECT MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS AT ALL TERMINALS THROUGH THURSDAY.
WITH THE RECENT MOISTURE AND LIGHT WINDS UNDER MOSTLY CLEAR
SKIES...EXPECT SOME EARLY MORNING LIGHT FOG AT ABR AND ATY. AS
THE SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT TIGHTENS UP AND THE MIXING LAYER
DEEPENS...SOUTHEAST WINDS WILL PICK UP TO 15 TO 20 KNOTS WITH
GUSTS TO AROUND 25 KNOTS AT PIR AND MBG ON THURSDAY AFTERNOON.



&&

.ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$
UPDATE...MOHR
SHORT TERM...SERR
LONG TERM...DORN
AVIATION...TDK

WEATHER.GOV/ABERDEEN