National Weather Service Text Product Display

Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Aberdeen, SD

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FXUS63 KABR 140527 AAC
AFDABR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ABERDEEN SD
1227 AM CDT TUE MAY 14 2013

.UPDATE...
SEE UPDATED AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW.


&&
.PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT
MAIN CONCERN IN THE SHORT TERM CONTINUES TO BE FIRE WEATHER.
WINDS WILL DIMINISH THIS EVENING AROUND SUNSET. WAA WILL CONTINUE
THIS EVENING PUSHING H85 TEMPS UP TO AROUND +24C. OVERNIGHT TEMPS
ARE EXPECTED TO HOVER NEAR 60 IN MOST SPOTS. MOST AREAS WILL
LIKELY SEE HIGHS FOR TUESDAY OCCUR IN THE MORNING...REACHING INTO
THE UPPER 70S IN THE NORTHWEST TO THE UPPER 80S IN THE EAST.

THE COLD FRONT WILL SWEEP THROUGH IN THE MORNING. BEHIND THE FRONT
TEMPS WILL HOLD STEADY OR FALL AS CAA BRINGS H85 TEMPS DOWN INTO
THE MID TEENS. WINDS WILL INCREASE TO 25 TO 35 MPH WITH GUSTS TO
50 MPH AS 40 KT WINDS ALOFT MIX DOWN. A WIND ADVISORY MAY BE
NECESSARY FOR PART OF THE REGION...MAINLY FOR THE NORTHERN
COUNTIES. THIS WOULD BE IN ADDITION TO THE PROBABILITY OF
UPGRADING THE FIRE WX WATCH TO A RED FLAG WARNING FOR THE ENTIRE
CWA.

DRY CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE ON WEDNESDAY BUT WINDS ARE EXPECTED
TO BE MUCH LIGHTER AS SFC HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN TO THE DAKOTAS.


.LONG TERM...THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY
THE EXTENDED PERIOD LOOKS TO BE ACTIVE WITH SEVERAL CHANCES FOR
PRECIPITATION. A WARM FRONT WILL BEGIN MOVING NORTHWARD ACROSS THE
REGION FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY WITH A BROAD SFC LOW OVER WESTERN
SOUTH DAKOTA AND THE NEBRASKA PANHANDLE. LOW LEVEL MOISTURE BEGINS
TO INCREASE AS THE GULF OPENS UP. ITS LIKELY MODEL DEWPOINTS ARE A
BIT TOO HIGH FOR THE WEEKEND BUT MAY NOT BE OVER-ESTIMATING QUITE
AS MUCH AS THEY HAVE BEEN THE PAST COUPLE DAYS GIVEN THE UPCOMING
SYNOPTIC SETUP. GENERALLY ACCEPTED ALLBLEND POPS FOR MUCH OF THE
EXTENDED.



&&

.AVIATION...
06Z TAFS FOR THE KABR...KATY...KPIR AND KMBG TERMINALS

VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH TUESDAY. HOWEVER...NORTHWEST
WINDS WILL AGAIN BECOME STRONG BY MID TO LATE MORNING ACROSS THE
ENTIRE AREA.


&&

.ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...RED FLAG WARNING FROM NOON CDT /11 AM MDT/ TODAY TO 9 PM CDT /8
     PM MDT/ THIS EVENING FOR LOWER BAD RIVER-MISSOURI COTEAU-
     PRAIRIE COTEAU-RED RIVER VALLEY-UPPER CHEYENNE-UPPER JAMES
     RIVER-UPPER MISSOURI COTEAU.

MN...RED FLAG WARNING FROM NOON TODAY TO 9 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR
     BIG STONE-TRAVERSE.

&&

$$
SHORT TERM...WISE
LONG TERM...TMT
AVIATION...PARKIN

WEATHER.GOV/ABERDEEN

National Weather Service Weather Forecast Office