Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Aberdeen, SD

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571
FXUS63 KABR 241210 AAA
AFDABR

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Aberdeen SD
610 AM CST Fri Feb 24 2017

.SHORT TERM...(Today through Sunday Afternoon)
Issued at 321 AM CST Fri Feb 24 2017

Other than a few flurries, the main impact from our departing storm
system for today will be the wind. Mixed winds in BUFKIT continue on
the order 15 to 20 with gusts 20 to 30kts across most of the CWA
with the strongest of these over the Coteau area. Otherwise high
pressure will be building into the western Dakotas. This will keep
us under sustained northerly flow and cold advection, which will
limit the temperature range today/tonight.

A clipper system, captured by all deterministic models, moves into
the western Dakotas late Saturday. Steep mid level lapse rates will
result in snow showers for mainly Saturday night. Increased and
expanded pops to 30% over much of the CWA with this feature, and
there may be some spotty light snow accumulation as suggested by the
NAM. Low level warm advection will occur ahead of this feature
Saturday, with 925mb temperatures above 0C for much of the CWA west
of the Coteau. While generally light, winds will also favor a
southwest to northwest component and and thus favorable for mixing.
This will allow for highs a few degrees above freezing, and also
keep temperatures seasonally mild through Sunday morning. A quick
shot of cold advection follows, however there is another surge of
milder air late Sunday. The main question for Sunday will be how far
east these 40 degree temperatures extend. Models disagree at this
point with the NAM being the most aggressive while the GFS and
Canadian more conservative, and cooler in the east.

.LONG TERM...(Sunday Evening through Thursday)
Issued at 321 AM CST Fri Feb 24 2017

The extended portion of the forecast will be characterized by
several weak upper waves moving through a predominantly west to
northwesterly flow. This, in connection with the passage of some
weak surface boundaries will lead to periodic chances for
precipitation through the long term period. The best chances for
that appear to be late Monday through early Wednesday. At this
point, none of these systems appear to be well organized so am
anticipating only light precip episodes with each. It should be
mostly in the form of snow with the possibility of a rain/snow mix
during daytime hours as temps warm.

Speaking of temperatures, the trend will be for near normal to
slightly above normal through the period. Low temperatures are
expected to be in the upper teens to mid 20s. Daytime highs will
range from the low 30s to around 40 degrees.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Saturday Morning)
Issued at 606 AM CST Fri Feb 24 2017

With the winter storm system departing the region...the lower cigs
will begin or continue to pull away to the south and east.
Expecting mainly VFR conditions to prevail through this TAF
forecast period. However, the will be a period of MVFR cigs
across northeastern and eastern SD as the day progresses. At this
issuance, lowered cigs at KABR to MVFR levels toward midday. Left
KATY with VFR conditions, but it`s also possible a period of MVFR
cigs materialize midday and afternoon. Winds will remain northerly
and gusty through the afternoon before relaxing by this evening.

&&

.ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...None.
MN...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Connelly
LONG TERM...Vipond
AVIATION...Vipond



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