Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Aberdeen, SD

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FXUS63 KABR 100529 AAC
AFDABR

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Aberdeen SD
1129 PM CST Fri Dec 9 2016

.UPDATE...
Issued at 1125 PM CST Fri Dec 9 2016

See updated aviation discussion below.


UPDATE Issued at 916 PM CST Fri Dec 9 2016

Skies have cleared across the northern half of the CWA, while the
south and areas along the Missouri River remain mostly cloudy to
cloudy. Temperatures have fallen a bit faster than anticipated
this evening, so dropped lows a couple of degrees. No other
changes made to the forecast at this time.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(This Evening through Sunday Night)
Issued at 245 PM CST Fri Dec 9 2016

The main forecast challenge in the short term is the system for
Saturday and Saturday night. The most trusted models have now started
to trend further north with the system, apparently a result of the
system getting picked up by this morning`s upper air data. Now it
appears most of the snow on Saturday during the day will be quite light
and the ABR CWA probably won`t get much more than an inch or so.
Saturday evening/night is when the left exit region of an H3 jet and
mid level pv anomaly bring some decent UVM to the northern part of
South Dakota, and then east into central Minnesota. The latest
GFS/ECMWF are now both transitioning to this prognostication. Still
thinking snow amounts of 1 to 3 inches should cover the situation
fairly well, although a bit more snow in the far east CWA is possible.
However, given the trend north in the models, later shifts will need to
keep an eye on the potential for a bit more snow than currently
forecast. The rest of the short term should feature generally dry
conditions.

As for temperatures, this weekend will be the warmest we`ll see for the
next seven days since several rounds of arctic air are expected to flow
into the region throughout next week.


.LONG TERM...(Monday through Friday)
Issued at 245 PM CST Fri Dec 9 2016

The long term will be mostly dry, with some low pops initially as a
second cold airmass is headed into the region. Looking at the
general trend for the first half of next week, GEFS shows a blob of
cold air with the core of 850mb temperatures 2 standard deviations
below climo migrating out of Canada. This airmass will dominate
almost the entirety of the extended period. Exact numbers will depend
on the placement of surface high pressure and thus winds and mixing
but the trend should be stable as GFS/EC and GEFS plumes all
indicate this second blast of Arctic air.


&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Saturday Night)
Issued at 1125 PM CST Fri Dec 9 2016

Generally looking at VFR cigs overnight, except for areas along
the Missouri River where IFR/MVFR cigs are possible. Cigs will
fall to IFR/MVFR everywhere on Saturday as a low pressure system
moves in. Vsbys will be VFR through the night, then look for them
to fall to MVFR levels during the day Saturday as an area of snow
tracks from west to east across the area.

&&


.ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...None.
MN...None.
&&

$$

UPDATE...Parkin
SHORT TERM...TDK
LONG TERM...Connelly
AVIATION...Parkin


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