Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Aberdeen, SD

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000
FXUS63 KABR 222328 AAA
AFDABR

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Aberdeen SD
528 PM CST Wed Nov 22 2017

.UPDATE...
Issued at 524 PM CST Wed Nov 22 2017

See updated aviation discussion below.

&&


.SHORT TERM...(This Evening through Thursday)
Issued at 244 PM CST Wed Nov 22 2017

A weak area of low pressure located over north central South
Dakota/south central North Dakota will continue to propagate
southeast through the evening into Minnesota tonight. This will be
followed by a small area of high pressure. Under this high, winds go
light and while we have mild air already in place, we also have
higher than average dewpoints. Several high resolution models
suggest fog under this environment, mainly between the James and
Missouri river valleys. Shouldn`t last too long as the bubble
high moves east by morning and winds become westerly.

As for Thursday, looks like a fantastic day thanks to those west
winds. Mixed temperatures from 900mb in the James valley are into
the low 60s, and 850mb are closer to 70s our west. 500mb and
300mb show intermittent saturation, so we may see some high clouds
but by and large it will be sunny. With 925/850mb temperatures 2
standard deviations above climo, and a quick perusal of records it
does indeed look like a few spots will have their warmest
Thanksgiving (well, Nov 23rd anyway) on record.


.LONG TERM...(Thursday Night through Wednesday)
Issued at 244 PM CST Wed Nov 22 2017

The recent long wave pattern across much of the conus looks to
remain in place through most of the long term. The pattern has,
overall, favored a positive PNA patter with west conus ridge and
east conus trof. Occasionally, a chunk of energy does break down
the ridge somewhat, and one of those pieces of energy will come
through on Friday, with a stronger wave early next week. The
system on Friday will probably stir up winds more than anything,
but there remains some low chances for pcpn, mostly rain. The next
system for early next week looks a bit stronger. But, that said,
model agreement is not particularly good. The CMC/GFS/CFS maintain
a somewhat progressive mid level trof, and thus minimize pcpn
chances. The ECMWF, on the other hand, is slower and deeper with
the trof, but has had poor run to run consistency. So, for now
will favor the non-ECMWF solution. Temperatures for most of the
period will favor above to much above normal, particularly highs.
Cooler air should filter south by early next work week.


&&

.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Thursday Evening)
Issued at 524 PM CST Wed Nov 22 2017

VFR conditions will prevail across the area tonight and through
the day Thursday.

&&


.ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...None.
MN...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Connelly
LONG TERM...TDK
AVIATION...Parkin



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