Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Aberdeen, SD

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000
FXUS63 KABR 312137
AFDABR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ABERDEEN SD
337 PM CST SAT JAN 31 2015

.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT
A CLIPPER SYSTEM MOVING INTO THE CWA FROM THE NORTHWEST WILL MERGE
WITH A STRONG AREA OF LOW PRESSURE OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS TO
RESULT IN ACCUMULATING SNOWFALL FOR MOST OF THE CWA TONIGHT
THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING.

THE CLIPPER SYSTEM MOVING IN FROM THE NORTHWEST WILL ENCOUNTER
VERY DRY AIR IN THE LOWER LEVELS WHICH SHOULD LIMIT SNOWFALL
AMOUNTS. THE HIRES MODELS OF THE ARW/NMM EVEN SUGGEST DRY
CONDITIONS FOR THE NORTHEASTERN PORTION OF THE CWA FOR THIS EVENT.
THE HIRES MODELS BASICALLY SUGGEST ONE TO TWO INCHES FOR THE REST
OF THE CWA. THE EXCEPTION WILL BE SOUTH CENTRAL SOUTH DAKOTA WHERE
THE SOUTHERN LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL BRING ADDITIONAL
ACCUMULATIONS. THE REGIONAL RADAR CURRENTLY SHOWS MODERATE PCPN
OVER CENTRAL NEBRASKA. THIS PCPN WILL SLOWLY TRACK NORTHWARD
THROUGH THE REST OF THE AFTERNOON...REACHING THE I-90 CORRIDOR BY
0Z. THE GFS/NAM SUGGEST SOUTH CENTRAL SOUTH DAKOTA COULD BE A
PIVOT LOCATION AS THE LOW TRACK INTO MISSOURI TONIGHT. THIS AREA
WILL HAVE THE POTENTIAL OF SEEING 3 TO 5 INCHES OF SNOW TONIGHT
THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING. THUS WILL ISSUE A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY
FOR JONES/LYMAN...AND BUFFALO COUNTIES.

DRY AIR WILL FILTER INTO THE AREA FROM THE NORTH ON SUNDAY THANKS
TO A SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM. ACCUMULATING SNOW WILL LIKELY
ENDING BY NOON WITH DRY CONDITIONS THROUGH AT LEAST MONDAY
MORNING. ANOTHER WEAK CLIPPER SYSTEM WILL TRACK ACROSS THE AREA
MONDAY AFTERNOON. THIS SYSTEM LACKS LLM SO WILL MAINTAIN SCHC
POPS.

.LONG TERM...TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY

STILL A LOT OF UNCERTAINTY AT THE START OF THE LONG TERM REGARDING
THE SYSTEM MOVING ACROSS THE PLAINS. MODELS ARE ALL OVER THE PLACE
WITH WHERE THE ARCTIC FRONT AND BEST FORCING WILL SET UP. NAM IS
NORTH OF THIS CWA..GFS IS SOUTH AND WEST AND THE ECMWF IS
SOMEWHERE IN THE MIDDLE. KEPT IN LOW CHANCE POPS ACROSS MUCH OF
THE AREA AS A RESULT. WITH SFC HIGH PRESSURE PUSHING DRY AIR IN FROM
THE NORTHWEST THERE IS GOING TO BE A SHARP CUTOFF WHERE EVER THE
PRECIP LINE ENDS UP.

SFC HIGH PRESSURE AND NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL DOMINATE WED KEEPING
THE REGION COLD AND DRY. BY THU AS THE HIGH SHIFTS TO THE EAST
RETURN FLOW WILL SET UP AND TEMPS WILL REBOUND FOR THE REMAINDER
OF THE WEEK. THE NEXT LOW THEN IMPACTS THE DAKOTAS ON SATURDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...
18Z TAFS FOR THE KABR...KATY...KPIR AND KMBG TERMINALS

IFR/MVFR CIGS WILL REMAIN OVER THE AREA THROUGH ABOUT 21Z...WITH
STEADILY IMPROVING VSBY IN LIGHT FOG. THE CIGS MAY LIFT TO VFR THIS
AFTERNOON BRIEFLY...WITH VSBYS BECOMING VFR. LIGHT SNOW WILL THEN
OVERSPREAD THE AREA FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST FROM 3Z TO 10Z
AND WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE EARLY MORNING HOURS...ENDING FAIRLY
QUICKLY AT KABR/KATY. IN GENERAL...MVFR CIGS AND IFR VSBYS ARE
EXPECTED WITH THE SNOW AND BLOWING SNOW AS NORTH WINDS GUST TO 25
KTS. CONDITIONS WILL IMPROVE TO VFR ACROSS THE REGION ON SUNDAY BY
THE END OF THE TAF PERIOD.

&&

.ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM CST SUNDAY FOR BUFFALO-JONES-
     LYMAN.

MN...NONE.
&&

$$
SHORT TERM...SD
LONG TERM...WISE
AVIATION...WISE

WEATHER.GOV/ABERDEEN




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