000
FXUS63 KABR 171514 AAB
AFDABR

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Aberdeen SD
1014 AM CDT Wed Apr 17 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Winds increasing for Thursday and Friday, with gusts between 35 to
  50 mph out of the northwest.

- Near normal temperatures for Today and Sunday, below normal
  by about 10 to 20 degrees Thursday/Friday/Saturday.

&&

.UPDATE...
Issued at 1013 AM CDT Wed Apr 17 2024

Made a few minor updates this morning, nothing substantial since
overall the forecast is on track.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY AFTERNOON/...
Issued at 207 AM CDT Wed Apr 17 2024

Band of rain in the James valley will slowly migrate east through
the course of the morning. Chances for moisture are limited
thereafter with a system crossing south of the CWA and possibly some
shallow (2kft thick) convection on Thursday with steepening low
level lapse rates in the far northeast. Winds have tamed down from
about 24 hours ago... and remain in the 20 to 30kt range today.
BUFKIT profiles do support stronger winds for Thursday in line with
those steepening lapses rates thanks to another surge of cooler air
aloft. Mixed winds top out around 30 to 40kts.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY/...
Issued at 207 AM CDT Wed Apr 17 2024

The cooler air will be well established by 00Z Friday as the
surface ridge shifts overhead. The main feature of interest for much
of this period will be the 500mb low over southern Manitoba at 00Z
Friday, extending a broad through across the northern half of the
U.S. from WA/OR through the Great Lakes. Expect gusty winds out of
the northwest 20-30kts with gusts 30 to near 40kts during the day
Friday, strongest over the more favorable areas of north central SD.
This should be the strongest winds through the entire long term
period. While the 500mb low pushes east across Ontario through the
day Friday and into Quebec Friday night, a trough will remain over
the Northern Plains. This trough will be reinforced by additional
waves sliding in on northwesterly flow, with increasing difficulty
in timing them as we move into Sunday/Monday. One will help bring a
slight (around 15%)chance of rain to our our far southwestern
counties during the day Saturday. Still, a general trough will
remain overhead.

At the surface, that ridge will remain in place with the main area
of high pressure along the Alberta/MT border at 06Z Saturday
shifting across the forecast area Sunday afternoon. On Sunday, high
temperatures end up around 10 degrees warmer than Saturday (from
near 50 to near 60 degrees). The surface high will sink to the
Southern Plains through eastern NE/IA midday Sunday. This will make
way for the next low to shift into western SD/NE by 06Z Monday and
to eastern SD/NE by 18Z Monday before exiting east Monday night.
There is plenty of room for changes in timing of precipitation given
the moderate to lower confidence in the overall pattern at this
point. There is a 30% chance of rain Monday. High pressure will
return Tuesday into Wednesday. While there is low confidence, we do
have a 20% chance of rain Wednesday.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z THURSDAY/...
Issued at 546 AM CDT Wed Apr 17 2024

Terminals KABR,KATY,KPIR,KMBG

Look for quickly improving conditions this morning as the swath of
rain currently over eastern SD exits into MN. VFR conditions at
MBG and PIR will shift over ABR by 15Z and ATY at or around 17Z.
Winds will continue to gust out of the west to northwest 20 to
30kts through the next 24 hours, strongest at ATY.


&&

.ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...None.
MN...None.
&&

$$

UPDATE...TDK
SHORT TERM...Connelly
LONG TERM...KF
AVIATION...KF