Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Aberdeen, SD

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FXUS63 KABR 232349 AAA
AFDABR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ABERDEEN SD
549 PM CST SUN NOV 23 2014

.UPDATE...
SEE BELOW FOR AN UPDATED AVIATION FORECAST DISCUSSION.


&&
.PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY
MAIN ISSUE FACING THE NEAR TERM INVOLVES WINDS (AND ASSOCIATED
HEADLINES) ALONG WITH PCPN CHANCES.

COLD FRONT HAS PUSHED THROUGH THE CWA AS ADVERTISED...WITH WINDS
GUSTING TO NEAR 40 MPH AROUND THE MO RIVER. LAMP GUIDANCE ALONG
WITH HOPWRF MEMBERS CONT TO SHOW SUSTAINED WINDS HEADING INTO THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS NEAR ADVRY LEVELS...ESPECIALLY ALONG THE FAVORED
BUFFALO RIDGE REGION. HAVE EXTENDED COVERAGE OF THE WIND ADVRY TO
INCLUDE THE REMAINDER OF MY ERN CWA THROUGH 18Z.

PCPN WISE...REGIONAL RADAR RETURNS DON`T SHOW A LOT FOR THE
AREA...BUT FIGURE THAT THE BEAM IS OVERSHOOTING MUCH OF THE PCPN.
BASED ON UPSTREAM REPORTS...DON`T REALLY THINK THERE WILL BE MUCH
MORE THAN FLURRIES ESPECIALLY WITH NO REAL AREAS OF FORCING SEEN
ON THE THETA-E SURFACES OR OMEGA LEVELS. PLUS...WITH WARM TEMPS
MELTING AND/OR CRUSTING SNOWCOVER...DON`T BELIEVE THAT BLSN IS
GOING TO BE AN ISSUE OVERNIGHT AND REMOVED ALL WORDING.

WITH CAA...TEMPS WILL FREEFALL OVERNIGHT...WITH LITTLE RECOVERY
EXPECTED ON MONDAY.


.LONG TERM...MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY

FIRST AREA OF CONCERN IS TUESDAY/TUESDAY NIGHT AS MODELS ARE STILL
HAVING A TOUGH TIME AGREEING ON CLIPPER LOW TRACK EVEN AS CLOSE AS
TWO DAYS OUT. GFS/NAM CONTINUE TO ADVERTISE THE MORE WESTERLY
TRACK...TAKING THE BULK OF SNOW RIGHT THROUGH THE CWA. THE EC/GEM
SOLUTIONS CONTINUE TO FAVOR THE EASTERLY TRACK...KEEPING THE BULK
OF SNOW EITHER ACROSS THE FAR EASTERN COUNTIES OR PRETTY MUCH OUT
OF THE CWA ENTIRELY. TAKING MORE OF A MIDDLE ROAD APPROACH FOR NOW
UNTIL BETTER AGREEMENT IS REACHED. THIS RESULTED IN INCREASING
POPS AND SNOW AMOUNT A BIT ACROSS THE EASTERN CWA.

WEDNESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT HIGH PRESSURE LOOKS TO BE BUILDING
SOUTH ACROSS THE CWA. ALTHOUGH...OVER WESTERN SD IT APPEARS
UPSLOPE FLOW WILL BE DEVELOPING WITHIN A BAROCLINIC ZONE THAT SETS
UP OVER THE HIGH PLAINS. MODELS GENERATING PRECIP WITH THIS AND
INHERITED SUPERBLEND POPS LOOK OK FOR THE TIME BEING OVER THE
WESTERN CWA.

MODELS ARE THEN SHOWING ANOTHER LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM AFFECTING THE
NORTHERN PLAINS LATE IN THE WEEK...BUT WITH WIDELY VARYING
SOLUTIONS. CURRENT SUPERBLEND GRIDS DO NOT SHOW PRECIP
CHANCES...BUT THIS COULD CHANGE IN THE NEAR FUTURE.


&&

.AVIATION...
00Z TAFS FOR THE KABR...KATY...KPIR AND KMBG TERMINALS

VFR/MVFR STRATUS CIGS WILL PREVAIL AT ALL FOUR TERMINALS FOR QUITE
AWHILE TONIGHT BEFORE CONDITIONS IMPROVE LATE TONIGHT/EARLY MONDAY
MORNING. WHILE THE CIGS ARE AROUND TONIGHT...CAN`T RULE OUT AN
OCCASIONAL FLURRY OR SNOW SHOWER. BREEZY TO WINDY NORTHWEST WINDS
OF 20 TO 30 KNOTS WITH GUSTS AS HIGH AS 40 KNOTS ARE EXPECTED TO
PERSIST INTO MONDAY BEFORE SPEEDS BEGIN TO DIMINISH.


&&

.ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 9 PM CST /8 PM MST/ THIS EVENING FOR
     CAMPBELL-CORSON-DEWEY-HUGHES-JONES-LYMAN-POTTER-STANLEY-
     SULLY-WALWORTH.

     WIND ADVISORY UNTIL NOON CST MONDAY FOR CLARK-CODINGTON-DAY-
     DEUEL-GRANT-HAMLIN-MARSHALL-ROBERTS.

     WIND ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT CST TONIGHT FOR BROWN-BUFFALO-
     EDMUNDS-FAULK-HAND-HYDE-MCPHERSON-SPINK.

MN...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL NOON CST MONDAY FOR BIG STONE-TRAVERSE.

&&

$$
UPDATE...DORN
SHORT TERM...HINTZ
LONG TERM...TMT
AVIATION...DORN

WEATHER.GOV/ABERDEEN




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