Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Aberdeen, SD

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FXUS63 KABR 300525 AAC

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Aberdeen SD
1225 AM CDT FRI SEP 30 2016

Issued at 910 PM CDT THU SEP 29 2016

Current forecast is on track, therefore no changes made at this


.SHORT TERM...(This Evening through Saturday Night)
Issued at 347 PM CDT THU SEP 29 2016

Not much going on in the short term with high pressure to the east
and a broad area of low pressure to the west resulting in southerly
flow and some gustiness with about a 12MB gradient across the
state. This gradient will persist across the area, with the core
of strongest winds gradually migrating from west river into an
area between the James and Missouri valleys over the course of the
short term. The warmest temperatures aloft don`t come in to the
area till late in the short term, so a slow steady increasing
trend is depicted in highs/lows through the next 3 days.

Only going to see some mid level moisture come into the western CWA
Friday afternoon but with only around 5 microbars of lift above
500MB and little moisture below 10 to 12kft, anticipate little
other than some virga showers. This band of moisture will also
migrate across the CWA through the course of the short term.

.LONG TERM...(Sunday through Thursday)
Issued at 347 PM CDT THU SEP 29 2016

The long term models agree well early on, then diverge through
the end of the period. The period begins with high pressure over
the region with a large upper level low pressure area moving into
the west coast. This upper low pressure area then drops into the
southwest US and then northeast into the central and northern
plains for Tuesday and Wednesday. Before this occurs, warm south
winds will prevail across the region Sunday and Monday, bringing
mostly sunny skies along with above normal early October
temperatures. In fact, Monday may end up being even warmer than
forecast with more 80 degree readings across the region. May have
to increase these in later forecasts. Otherwise, the models all
disagree on the evolution of the southwest US upper level low
pressure area and its associated surface low pressure area for the
middle of the week as they move into the region. The GFS shows the
surface low pressure area well south over southern Nebraska on 12z
Wednesday with the Canadian placing the low pressure area along
the Canadian border. The EC was in between with the low located in
northeast South Dakota. Nevertheless, any one of the solutions
will bring us off and on good chances of showers/storms for Monday
night through Wednesday night. As the models come into better
agreement, the forecast will become more into focus. The
temperatures will cool down into Wednesday and Thursday as
Canadian air moves in on northwest winds.


.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Friday Night)
Issued at 1224 AM CDT FRI SEP 30 2016

VFR conditions will prevail across the area overnight and through
the day Friday. Southeasterly winds will increase into the 15 to 30
knot range on Friday, mainly across the western half of the CWA.


.ABR Watches/Warnings/Advisories...


SHORT TERM...Connelly
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