Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Aberdeen, SD

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000
FXUS63 KABR 291733 AAA
AFDABR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ABERDEEN SD
1233 PM CDT FRI MAY 29 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 959 AM CDT FRI MAY 29 2015

MADE A FEW CHANGES TO THE FORECAST. UPDATED END OF PCPN FROM NW TO
SE OVER THE REGION...ALSO KNOCKED TEMPS DOWN JUST A TOUCH GIVEN
PLENTIFUL UPSTREAM CLOUDS AND COOLER AIRMASS OOZING INTO THE
REGION. UPDATES ALREADY ISSUED.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 340 AM CDT FRI MAY 29 2015

AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH RESPONSIBLE FOR THE CURRENT SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS IS BEING UNDER CUT BY A SURFACE COLD FRONT. THIS FRONT
WILL PUSH THE SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS SOUTH OF THIS CWA BY MID
AFTERNOON OR SOONER. COLD AIR ADVECTION ALONG WITH SIX HOUR PRESSURE
RISES OF 7 MB SHOULD RESULT IN GUSTY NORTHERNLY WINDS TODAY.
TEMPERATURES BEHIND THE FRONT WILL BE RATHER CHILLY WITH HIGHS ONLY
CLIMBING INTO THE UPPER 50S/LOWER 60S. THE GFS LAMP GUIDANCE IS
ACTUALLY SHOWING HIGHS IN SOME LOCATIONS OCCURRING THIS MORNING WITH
A GRADUALLY DROP THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON.

MODELS CONTINUE TO INDICATE PATCHY FROST BY SATURDAY
MORNING...ESPECIALLY IN LOW LYING AREAS. THE LATEST GUIDANCE IS
SHOWING SEVERAL LOCATIONS AROUND 36 DEGREES...WHICH GIVEN THE
STRENGTH OF THE HIGH PRESSURE/2 TO 3 STANDARD DEVIATION ABOVE
NORMAL...AND 850 MB TEMPS OF 2 STANDARD DEVIATIONS BELOW...FROSTY
CONDITIONS ARE HIGHLY POSSIBLE. LATER SHIFTS MAY NEED TO MENTION
FROST IN FORECAST. THE HIGH PRESSURE WILL SLOWLY PUSH EASTWARD ON
SATURDAY...ALLOWING FOR WAA TO DEVELOP WEST OF THIS CWA. HIGHS ON
SATURDAY WILL REMAIN ON THE COOLER SIDE WITH THIS IN THE UPPER
50S...TO THE MID 60S.

SUNDAY WILL HAVE THE POTENTIAL OF BEING COOL AS WELL AS SEVERAL
MODELS ARE SHOWING A CLIPPER LIKE SYSTEM PASSING THROUGH THE REGION
DURING THE DAY. SOME MODELS...LIKE THE CANADIAN...ACTUALLY PRODUCES
HIGHS ONLY IN THE LOWER 50S. THIS IS LIKELY TOO COLD. THE NAM ON THE
OTHER HAND IS LIKELY TOO WARM AS IT KEEPS THE SYSTEM NORTH OF THIS
CWA. WENT WITH A MODEL BLEND FOR TEMPERATURES AND CONSALL FOR PCPN.
WITH LIMITED INSTABILITY...WILL NOT MENTION THUNDER WITH THIS EVENT.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 340 AM CDT FRI MAY 29 2015

UPPER RIDGING AND A PERSISTENT SFC LEE SIDE TROF WILL MEAN WARM
TEMPS AND CONTINUED CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND TSTORMS THROUGH TUE
NIGHT. AS THE TROUGH MOVES OFF THE ROCKIES AND THE UPPER TROUGH
SHIFTS EAST ON WEDNESDAY PRECIP CHANCES WILL REMAIN IN THE FORECAST
THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1224 PM CDT FRI MAY 29 2015

LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS ARE STILL LINGERING FROM SOUTHWEST SOUTH
DAKOTA THROUGH CENTRAL MINNESOTA...BUT WILL DISSIPATE QUICKLY
ACROSS OUR AREA OF CONCERN THIS AFTERNOON. A LARGE SWATH OF MVFR
CIGS EXTENDS WELL INTO NORTH DAKOTA HOWEVER...AND JUST HOW QUICKLY
THIS DECK OF CLOUDS EXITS THE REGION IS QUITE UNCERTAIN. IT WILL
LIKELY BE LATE THIS EVENING OR INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS BEFORE
CONDITIONS CLEAR. WINDS WILL REMAIN OUT OF THE NORTH...GRADUALLY
LOOSING THE GUSTINESS TONIGHT.

&&

.ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...TDK
SHORT TERM...SD
LONG TERM...WISE
AVIATION...SERR


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